Can We Meet the World’s Energy Needs Without Adverse Effects on the Environment? Chancellor Mark S. Wrighton Earth’s Future: Causes and Consequences of Global Climate Change April 7, 2015

21 st Century Challenges Providing food and water for a growing global population Addressing global public health Overcoming poverty Addressing the challenges of an aging global population Providing the energy needed at an affordable cost without adverse effects on the environment

21 st Century Challenges Science and engineering advances are needed to meet each major challenge, but… Political, economic, social and cultural issues also need to be addressed. There is a critical role for universities in meeting 21 st century challenges.

McDonnell International Scholars Academy Founded in 2005 to broaden international cooperation and understanding among the people and institutions of the world. “Educating future leaders in a global environment is one of the world’s greatest opportunities.” John F. McDonnell

McDonnell Academy Partner Universities Bogazici University Budapest Univ. of Technology and Economics China Agricultural Univ. Chinese Univ. Hong Kong Chulalongkorn Univ. Fudan University IIT Bombay Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya Korea Univ. Jawaharlal Nehru Univ. Middle East Tech. Univ. National Taiwan Univ. National Univ. Singapore Peking University Seoul National Univ. State Univ. in Campinas Tata Institute for Soc. Sci. Technion-Israel Institute of Technology Tsinghua University Univ. of Chile Univ. of Ghana Univ. of Hong Kong Univ. of Indonesia Univ. of Melbourne Univ. of Queensland Univ. of Tokyo Utrecht University Yonsei University

Energy consumption data source: US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook Population data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 GLOBAL ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION ANNUAL ENERGY USE

Year Global Annual Energy Consumption by fuel (TWh) % 27% 23% 15% 7% 33% 29% 22% 5% Source: US Energy Information Administration. Inal Energy Outlook % Petroleum and other liquid fuels (including biofuels) Coal Natural gas Renewables (excluding biofuels) Nuclear Share of global total GLOBAL ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE

McDonnell Academy Partner University Country Primary Energy Source Distribution CoalPetroleumNatural GasHydro/RenewablesNuclear

Global Energy Supply 9 Primary Energy Source% of total Oil33.5 Coal26.8 Gas20.8 Renewable (Solar, Wind, Biomass, Hydro) 12.9 Nuclear5.8 Other4 TOTAL RATE OF PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY = 16 TW TOTAL GENERATED = 2.3 TW (14 % of energy supply) TOTAL CONSUMED = 1.92 TW (12% of energy supply; 83 % of generated) Improving efficiency of energy generation, transmission and utilization is a major opportunity!

Energy Efficiency Legacy Goal: Reduce GHG by 22% by 2020

Future Options Conservation –Change in behavior needed –Difficult politically –“Social Norming” may help: young people are a key to success Efficiency Improvements –Major opportunity –Existing technology is ready –New, important technologies to come!

Sources: ACI, MSHA Rapid increases in CO 2 emissions in Asia China is now the largest emitter of CO 2 The developing world has surpassed the OECD nations in total emissions. Global solutions are needed to address climate change. CO 2 Emission Trends (in giga-tonnes of CO 2 ) The Critical Issue: CO 2 Non-OECD China OECD United States

Thimsen, 2009 PER CAPITA CO 2 EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AAQRL - Aerosol and Air Quality Research Laboratory 10- USA 11- India 12- China 13- Brazil Global Energy Future Report (2010)

Population Growth By Country Population Reference Bureau, 2008 (millions)

Conclusion Growth in energy demand and need to avoid additional CO 2 emission suggests expansion of use of both nuclear and renewable energy, the only sources of energy with minimal CO 2 emission.

What is to be done with CO 2 ? Like energy production itself, the scale is staggering. Geological “storage”? Photobiological reduction to fuels? Reforestation? Electrochemical reduction using electricity from nuclear/solar power?

US Nuclear Power Nuclear provides ~20% of US electricity Total nuclear plants: 104 –10-19 years old:3 –20-29 years old: 48 –30-39 years old: 46 –40+ years old: 7

Global Concerns Release of radioactive materials Storage of radioactive waste Capital to build plants Proliferation of nuclear weapons Uranium supply

Potential for Nuclear Power Today: ~15 Terawatts 2050: ~30 Terawatts estimated Scale, assuming all needs provided by nuclear: –15 Terawatts = 15,000 Gigawatt nuclear plants –About one gigawatt nuclear plant every day for forty years! –Cost: $10 billion per plant, $150 trillion total

3/11/11 Tsunami

Fukushima Nuclear Plant

Japan’s Nuclear Power Beginning of 2011 –54 Nuclear power plants –~30% of Japan’s electricity Japan’s Plan at Beginning of 2011 –14 New nuclear plants by 2030 –~50% of Japan’s electricity March 11 Tsunami: Plan Abandoned

Environmental Releases of I-131 A Summary by Professor H. Royal SourceDateActivity (PBq) TMI Hanford Chernobyl19861,800 Nevada Test Site ,600 Worldwide Testing ,000 Chernobyl released 2.5 million times more I-131 than TMI Nevada Test Site Released 3 times more I-131 than Chernobyl Worldwide Testing Released 375 times more I-131 than Chernobyl NCRP Report 159 Table 3.6

Environmental Releases of I-131 Conclusion from Professor H. Royal  Fukushima will be more like TMI than Chernobyl [Professor Henry Royal is an expert on radiation health safety at Washington University’s Department of Radiology. He served as a part of the team to investigate the consequences from Chernobyl.]

Photovoltaic Electricity Achieving Grid Parity? Food or Energy or Both?

Solar Energy Potential Theoretical: ~1.7 x10 5 TW What is practical achievement? Efficiency? Photosynthesis: ~ 90 TW

Solar Energy Works Food and Biofuels Possible Global Energy Consumption: ~15 TW Food (energy) for Human Life, in 2050 –~Ten billion people (rounding up) –100 W/person caloric intake –~One terawatt from agriculture Agricultural productivity increased more than population growth for ~50 years; thus, biofuels possible, in addition to food

Future Energy Options Fossil –Will be used for decades to come –Near term expansion expected Renewables –Expansion highly likely –Cost is high, but degradation of environment is costly, too Nuclear –Important now, more important soon? –Key to avoiding large additional CO 2 emission near and intermediate term

Assumptions for the Future Population growth Economic development in India, China, and Africa, and other regions Continued expansion of use of fossil fuels CO 2 accumulation represents a global threat