The Lisbon Strategy, Europe 2020 and the crisis in between: Towards a more social EU ? David Natali University of Bologna European social observatory, OSE

EUROPE 2020 WHAT STRATEGY ? WHAT IS NEW, PROMISING, WORRYING ? FOOD FOR THOUGHTS

1. WHAT IS EUROPE 2020 ? The content, 3 Priorities “to turn the EU into a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy (…) smart growth, i.e. “strengthening knowledge and innovation as drivers of our future growth”; sustainable growth, i.e. “promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy”; and inclusive growth, i.e. “fostering a high- employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion”.

1. WHAT IS EUROPE 2020 ? The content, 5 headline targets to raise to 75% the employment rate for women and men aged 20-64; to raise investment levels in (R&D) to 3% of EU’s GDP; the “20/20/20” climate/energy targets; and to increase to 30% the emissions reduction if the conditions are right; to improve education levels, to reduce school drop-out rates to less than 10% and by increasing the share of years old having tertiary education to at least 40%; to promote social inclusion (to lift at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty.

2. WHAT IS NEW… AND PROMISING ? 1.In Europe 2020 I.10 Guidelines (one on poverty) II.Seven Flagships (EPAP) III.More Coordinated Governance (EU Semester) and more stringent coordination IV.Mobilisation of EU cohesion policy

2. WHAT IS NEW… AND PROMISING ? 2.in the EU Institutional Context, The Lisbon Treaty I.Horizontal Social Clause (Art. 9), SIA II.Charter of Fundamental Social Rights III.Social Security Emergency Break (Art. 48) IV.Services of General Interest (Protocol 26)

2. WHAT IS NEW AND WORRYING ? 3.Political/Economic/Institutional context I.The EU political context (right-of-centre dominance) II.The new economic context, Aftershocks III.The new Institutional context (ECOFIN dominance)

2. WHAT IS NEW AND WORRYING ? 4.About the Paradigm I.Marginalisation of the social side of the story (due to the crisis) II.Uni-dimensional social policy (focus on poverty) III.German Model to be the EU model

3. FOOD FOR THOUGHTS Lisbon Treaty and Europe 2020 may represent an opportunity …. But political context is unfavourable What strategy for the future? Do we accept the economic paradigm at the core of the Strategy (fiscal austerity + export surplus)? Eurobond/EIB; Green Tax; Green economy; Structural Funds