Ethics of Forecasting Georgia Planning Association Conference 28 September 2012 Columbus, Georgia Gary Cornell, FAICP, DeKalb County Russ Danser, AICP,

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Presentation transcript:

Ethics of Forecasting Georgia Planning Association Conference 28 September 2012 Columbus, Georgia Gary Cornell, FAICP, DeKalb County Russ Danser, AICP, Edwards-Pittman Engineering Bruce Stiftel, FAICP, Georgia Tech Tom Weyandt, AICP, City of Atlanta

The Problem Clients and employers sometimes pressure planners to produce forecasting results that support favored alternatives. There are many discretionary decisions made in forecasting that allow the planner to bias the analysis or skew results. Biasing an analysis is of questionable ethics.

How and Why Appraisal Optimism Salami Tactics Ribbon-Cutting Complex Economic Development Motives Preoccupation with technical or structural solutions Commitment Escalation Competitive Pressures Corruption

Examples Eurotunnel real cost was double estimate. Sydney opera house was projected to cost AUS$ 7 million; actually cost AUS $ 102 million in 1973, then an additional AUS$ 45 million in 2002 to meet original specs. Pickrell (1992) found ten rail projects of the 1970s/80s had ridership % below projection.

AICP Code of Ethics: Rules of Conduct B

AICP Code of Ethics: + Aspirations B A2 A3

Today’s Session Sackcloth and Ashes Reconciliation and Hope Audience Comments/Discussion Closing remarks

Key Sources John L. Crompton. Economic impact studies: instruments for political shenanigans. J. Travel Research 45(2006): Bent Flyvbjerg, Massimo Garbuio, Dan Lovallo. Delusion and deception in large infrastructure projects. California Management Review. 51(2; 2009): Bent Flyvbjerg, M.S.Holm, S. Buhl. Underestimating costs in public works projects: error or lie? J. American Planning Assn. 68(2002): Brian Taylor, Eugene J. Kim and John E. Gahbauer. The thin red line. J. Planning Education and Research. 29(2009):