HERWG Housing Early Recovery Working Group Updated Gap Analysis July 2011.

2 Calculation Table HERWG Gap Analysis April th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad HOUSING EARLY RECOVERY WORKING GROUP - CALCULATION OF STRATEGIC GAP IN THE HOUSING SECTOR Line DefinitionCalcul.UnitPAKG+BBalochistanKPKPunjabSindhTotal 1 Affected districts Destroyed houses (PDMA) Houses ,484116,866301,211346,942827,380 3 Ongoing Self Recovery by own resources = Not requiring assistance % of 2% 0%20%15%6%11% 4 L2*L3Houses 023,37345,18220,81789, ,648 5 Committed Transitional Shelters (constructed or committed) TS2001,75214,52327,8147,07812,33863,705 6 Committed One Room Shelters (constructed + planned) Sh.Cluster dataORS ,22226,30959,04266,491178,212 7 UpdatedORS ,22221,86159,04266,491173,764 Committed registered TS + ORS 1,4282,67238,74549,67566,12078,829237,469 8 Additional: Not registered response in % L6% 8%20%15% 13% 9 ORS 1,9384,3728,8569,97423, Estimated coverage SUM (5:9)ORS1,4282,67240,68377,420120,158109,619351, L10 / L2%98%189%68%66%40%32%43% 12 Total estimated gap L2 -L10ORS0018,80139,446181,053237,323476, L10 / L 2%0% 32%34%60%68%56% 32%42%71%73%71% 14 Prevailing materials mud, adobe, bricks mud, adobe, bricks, stones mud, adobe, bricks lohkat, mud, adobe, bricks 15 Seismic Zone of affected districtsPK Bldg Code 2B + 3 2A 16 Construction type same levelConstr. Option M 1M2M1 17 Construction type improved levelConstr. Option B.2.1B 2.2B Calculated costs same shelter type PKR 65,00075,00060,00052, Calculated costs improved shelter type PKR 92,000103,00082,00065, Percentage response same type % 25% 21 Percentage response improved type % 75% 22 Calculated costs w/out participat. $ 18,856,53844,550,325162,947,745172,408,056398,762,663 Calculation of costs with participation 23 Extremely vulnerable: 15%, no particip. $ 2,156,6135,220,74119,170,32321,777,86046,168, Same type of shelter: participation 35% $ 1,985,8814,807,43317,652,67220,053,77942,513, Improved type of shelter: participation 50% $ 6,486,42815,235,86355,673,81357,847,440128,757, Calculated costs with participation $ 10,628,92225,264,03792,496,80899,679,079217,439, % of reduction by participation % 44%43% 42%45% 28 Likely inflation of material market prices % 35% 37% 29 L24*L26$ 3,720,1238,842,41332,373,88334,887,67879,824, Estimated effective construction costsL24+L27$ 14,349,04434,106,450124,870,691134,566,756307,892, Implementation costs (7% for technical supervision, 5% for administration, 7% agncy overhead costs) 19% * L34 2,726,3186,480,22523,725,43125,567,68458,499, Gran Total Strategic Gap Houing Sector $ 17,075,36340,586,675148,596,122160,134,440366,392, Strategic Gap per Province in % of Total Strategic Gap Costs % 10.66%11.08%40.56%43.71%100.00% 34 Construction + Implementation per One Room Shelter L36/L10$ 9081, Line DefinitionCalcul.UnitPAKG+BBalochistanKPKPunjabSindhTotal

3 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 1.Strategy 2.Village Profiles 3.Destroyed Houses 4.Self Recovery 5.Assisted Response 6.Gap in Shelter Sector 7.Cost estimation 8.Priorities 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

4 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Earl Recovery Strategy (unchanged) Response to completely destroyed houses Early Recovery: 1 ORS against 1 CDH Approx m2 core ORS, extendable Technical Guidelines to comply with DRR Transitional Shelters not promoted anymore Promotion of integrated approach (WASH) Collaborate w/ provincial + district authorities 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

5 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Village Profiles (UN-HABITAT) Standard profile forms for over 300 villages Flood affected / migrated families Emergency Relief: families assisted w. NFI, tents Houses: All; Damaged: partially / completely Relation: Partially / completely / not damaged h. Self Recovery: completed + ongoing Extremely vulnerable 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

6 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad Damaged Houses Not damaged in % of damaged Self Recovery: % of CDH Province CompletelyPartially Village Profiles Gap Analysis KPK 33%67%303% 75%55% Balochistan 93%7%3% 27%5% Punjab 79%21%19% 35%25% Sindh 71%29%12% 10%15%

7 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

8 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad Provinces TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely116, , ,094 Partially164, , ,235 Total280,62975,596497,700876,249 1,730,174 TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely41%80%31%66% Partially59%20%69%33% Total100% TypeKPKBalochistanPunjabSindh 4 Provinces Completely116,13560,477152,959578, ,895 Partially164,49415,119344,741289, ,516 Total280,62975,596497,700867,487 1,721,412

9 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

10 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad Self Recovery Duration of flood Local resources Village Profiles Remarks Gap analysis KPKshortmedium75%monitored55% Balochistanmediumvery few27%doubteful5% Punjabmediumfew35% in Pakka areas, but not in katcha areas 25% Sindhlongmedium10% profiles = observation, expected to rise 15%

11 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Assisted Response (HERWG) Transitional Shelters: data from Shelter Cluster Registered One Room Shelters: 144’289 ORS (Updated per end June, refer to district list) Not yet registered ORS (refer to DFP) KPK and Punjab: 20%, Sindh: 15%, Balochistan 5% Other actors and forms of support KPK and Punjab: 20%, Sindh: 10%, Balochistan 5% 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

12 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

13 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

14 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Updated Gap Analysis (July 2011) Assisted Response: total figures: only little change Actualized Baseline (CDH): Punjab 2/3 less, Sindh 1/3 more Self Recovery: KPK strong, Punjab: medium, Sindh + B: low CDH in AJK, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kyber Pakht.: covered Gap: Balochistan 5%; Punjab 9%, Sindh 85%! Priorities: a) Balochistan (Jaffarabad) b) Flood prone areas = katcha areas in Bal., Punjab, Sindh 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

15 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS Costing (on base of UN-HABITAT shelter types) Only 25% improved rehabilitation w/ same materials DRR Improved mud/adobe constructions: 45 – 60’000 Rps Fired brick constructions: 80’000 (Sindh) – 100’000 (B. + P.) 15% extremely vulnerable receive all material and labor 85% of beneficiaries participate (salv.+new mat, unsk. labor) Reduction: Balochistan: 25%, Sindh: 40%, Punjab: 45% 16% tax on bricks included, 25% further price hike included Plus 19%: 7% for technical, 5% for admin, 7% for agency 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

16 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

17 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

18 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

19 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS SUMMARY 1.Fewer guesses thanks to village profiles 2.CDH-Base: P down, S up, sum unchanged 3.Self Recovery: short = high, long = low, 4.Registered + not yet + other actors 5.AJK, Gilgit, Kyber Pakhtunkha: no gap 6.Cost estimation: with latrines = 1’000 $ 7.Priorities: Flood prone areas and Sindh! 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad

20 HERWG UPDATED GAP ANALYSIS 9 th HERWG Meeting, Islamabad