What is a depression? A depression in economics may be somewhat hard to define. A standard definition of an economic depression is a significant decline.

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Presentation transcript:

What is a depression? A depression in economics may be somewhat hard to define. A standard definition of an economic depression is a significant decline in the gross domestic product (GDP). In order to understand a depression in these terms, one must understand the definition of a GDP. The GDP consists of the monies spent by consumers, the investments made by private companies and the government, government spending on labor and products, and the net total of a country’s exports. These facts are totaled to determine the gross domestic product of a year. In simpler terms the GDP can be seen as an accounting of almost all the money spent on goods, services, investments, research, and labor in a country. A depression is thought to occur when the GDP declines by 10% or more in a year’s time. Economists tend to differ over the exact percentage of decline. The Great Depression in the US and in Europe after the Stock Market crash of 1929 showed a steadily declining GDP in the subsequent years. In the months following the crash, the GDP declined over 30%, and then was marked by a period of increase. However this increase did not equal the previous GDP of the US. So defining a depression entirely by evaluation of a decline in the GDP cannot be fully accurate

Depression Era Unemployment Statistics Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington, D.C., 1960), p.70.Washington, D.C., 1960), p.70. Year PopulationLabor ForceUnemployed % of Labor Force ,010,00049,440,000 1,550, ,550,00050,080,000 4,340, ,710,00050,680,000 8,020, ,810,00051,250,000 12,060, ,950,00051,840,000 12,830, ,190,00052,490,000 11,340, ,460,00053,140,000 10,610, ,700,00053,740,000 9,030, ,870,00054,320,000 7,700, ,120,00054,950,000 10,390, ,360,00055,600,000 9,480, ,560,00056,180,000 8,120, ,700,00057,530,000 5,560, Negative GDP: % % % %.

2 Minute State Financial Overview Total state $ expenditures are still below 2001 levels (i.e., spending prior to the recession) Conservatively, there will be $ billion in state deficits over next 30 months State Medicaid deficits currently stand at $231.8 billion (stimulus bills only pay $87 million to states for Medicaid) States have already proposed to cut: – K-12 and pre-K funding and services (25) – Public college and university funding (30) – Their own workforces (36) There are four actions states can take: 1. draw down reserves; 2. cut expenditures; 3. raise taxes; and, 4. get the money from the feds

State Budget Troubles Worsen by McNichol & Lav Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, January 29, % 3.3% 4.9% 4.6% 3.4%

Aggregated State Deficits

1.Alabama $784 m $1.1 b $1.8 b 22.2% 2.Alaska $360 m $360 m 6.8% 7.3% 3.Arizona1 $1.9 b $1.6 b $3.5 b 34.8% 4.Arkansas $107 m $107 m 2.4% 5.California $22.2 b $13.7 b $35.9 b 35.5% 6.Colorado $604 m $604 m 7.7% 7.Connecticut $150 m $1.3 b $1.5 b 8.5% 8.Delaware $217 m $226 m $443 m 12.2% 9.District of Columbia $96 m $131 m $227 m 3.6% 10.Florida $3.4 b $2.3 b $5.7 b 22.2% 11.Georgia1 $245 m $2.2 b $2.4 b 11.5% 12.Hawaii $232 m $232 m 4.0% 13.Idaho $217 m $131 m 7.4% 14.Illinois $1.8 b $2.0 b $3.8 b 13.4% 15.Indiana $763 m $763 m 5.8% 7.6% 16.Iowa $350 m $134 m $484 m 7.6% 17.Kansas $185 m $185 m 2.9% 18.Kentucky $266 m $456 m $722 m 7.8% 19.Louisiana $341 m $341 m 3.7% 20.Maine $124 m $140 m $265 m 8.6% 21.Maryland $808 m $691 m $1.5 b 10.0% 22.Massachusetts $1.2 b $2.4 b $3.6 b 12.7% 23.Michigan $472 m $200 m $672 m 2.9% 9.6% 24.Minnesota $935 m $426 m $ 1.4 b 7.9% 25.Mississippi1 $90 m $175 m $265 m 5.2% 26.Missouri $342 m $342 m Nevada $898 m $536 m $1.4 b 19.6% 28.New Hampshire $200 m $50 m $250 m 8.0% 29.New Jersey1 $2.5 b $2.1 b $4.6 b 14.2% 30.New Mexico $454 m $454 m 7.5% 31.New York $4.9 b $1.7 b $6.4 b 11.7% 32.North Carolina $800 m $800 m 3.7% 33.Ohio1 $733 m $1.2 b $1.9 b 6.8% 34.Oklahoma $114 m $114 m 1.7% 35.Oregon $442 m $442 m 6.6% 36.Pennsylvania $2.3 b $2.3 b 8.1% 37.Rhode Island $430 m $372 m $802 m 24.5% 38.South Carolina $250 m $554 m $804 m 11.7% 39.South Dakota $27 m $27 m 2.2% 40.Tennessee $468 m $884 m $1.4 b 12.0% 41.Utah $620 m $620 m 10.4% 3.7% 42.Vermont $59 m $66 m $125 m 10.3% 43.Virginia $1.2 b $1.1 b $2.3 b 13.8% 44.Washington $509 m $509 m 3.4% 6.4% 45.Wisconsin $652 m $346 m $998 m 7.1 % SIZE OF TOTAL FY2009 BUDGET GAPS: TOTAL $47.6 b $46.4 b $93.9 b 14.2% 1. Gap before budget was adopted 2. Additional mid-year gap 3. Total Total Gap as % of FY2009 General Fund