Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook Figures Spring 2016

Figure 1: First Quarter Slowdown Followed by a Pickup in U.S. GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS, Inc.

Figure 2: Inflation-Adjusted Nonresidential Fixed Investment Suffers from Weakness in the Petroleum Sector Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS, Inc.

Figure 3: Total U.S. Nonfarm Employment Sees Steady Monthly Gains Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 4: Brent Crude Oil Price Will Trend Up as Global Growth Picks Up Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IHS, Inc.

Figure 5: Federal Funds Rate and CPI Each Inch Higher Source: Federal Reserve Bank and IHS, Inc.

Figure 6: Employment Gains are Projected for Most Broad Sectors of the Tennessee Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Boyd Center, UT.

Figure 7: Tennessee’s Unemployment Rate Will Finally Drop below the National Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS, Inc., and Boyd Center, UT.

Figure 8: County Economic Status, Fiscal Year 2017 Source: Appalachian Regional Commission, March 2016.

Figure 9: The Federal Deficit Shrank in 2015 *2016–2019 are projections Source: IHS, Inc.

Figure 10: Tennessee’s Total Tax Collections Grew at a Much Faster Pace Than the Southeastern Average in (July–Sept) Source: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government

Figure 11: The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been on a Steady Decline Since 2000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate (Aged 16 or Older) by Gender Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 13: The U.S. Population Nearing Retirement Age Spiked Around 2000 NOTE: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 14: The U.S. Population Aged 65 and Older Saw Spikes in 2000 and 2012 NOTE: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 15: Labor Force Participation for Young Adults (Aged 16 to 24) Has Fallen But Has Stabilized NOTE: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 16: Labor Force Participation among Prime-Age Workers (Aged 25 to 54) Has Also Been on the Decline NOTE: Data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 17: U.S. State and Federal Prison Population Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Figure 18: Federal Government Current Expenditures: Disability Payments Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Figure 19: Average Weeks Unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 20: Discouraged Workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 21: Labor Force Participation Rates across the United States, March 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. 53.1% to 60.3% 60.4% to 63.0% 63.1% to 67.0% 67.1% to 71.2% U.S.: 63.0%

Figure 22: Low Labor Force Participation is a Problem for Most of the Southeast Region Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 23: Tennessee's Labor Force Participation Rate is Well Below the National Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 24: Educational Attainment Levels among the Population 25 Years and Older Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates.

Figure 25: U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Increase with Educational Attainment (Age 25 Years and Older) Note: Not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 26: More Tennesseans Report Serious Health Issues Than Do Their National Counterparts Source: Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2014.