Mark Svoboda, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln What is the Drought Monitor?

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Presentation transcript:

Mark Svoboda, Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln What is the Drought Monitor? Past/Present/Future Drought Monitor Forum Portland, OR October 10-11, 2007

Paraphrasing Forrest Gump on drought: “My mamma always said drought was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

Evolution……………… 1997: WDCC MAP WCWS 1998: NDMC Drought Monitoring product

1999:The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA (CPC and NCDC), USDA, and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map -- the U.S. Drought Monitor -- with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or Indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or Indicators Composite Indicator

A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks The Drought Monitor Concept

Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale NOT a forecast! NOT a drought declaration! Identify impacts (A, H) Assessment of current conditions Incorporate local expert input Be as objective as possible

U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30 %tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20 %tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10 %tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5 %tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2 %tile)

U.S. Drought Monitor Integrates Key Drought Indicators: - Palmer Drought Index - SPI - KBDI - Modeled Soil Moisture - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow - Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: - Crop Moisture Index - Sat. Veg. Health Index - Soil Moisture - Mesonet data In The West: - SWSI - Reservoir levels - Snowpack - Streamflow Created in ArcGIS

Objective Blends  Short-Term Blend 35% Palmer Z Index 25% 3-Month Precip. 20% 1-Month Precip. 13% CPC Soil Model 7% Palmer Drought Index

Objective Blends  Long-Term Blend 25% Palmer Hydrological Index 20% 24-Month Precip. 20% 12-Month Precip. 15% 6-Month Precip. 10% 60-Month Precip. 10% CPC Soil Model

Reservoir Storage Cle Elum Reservoir Vs Historical Percentiles Current Storage

The Importance of Local Expert Input The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth” –Listserver (250 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

USDM Listserve Participants (as of July 2007)

drought.unl.edu/dm

Moving toward state-level trend analysis capabilities (left) and providing more county-level drought assessment information (right).

NDMC has gone mobile!

Any Questions? Enhancing near real-time delivery of drought information: “Rapid Response”

Any Questions? Please contact me at: Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center Thank You Any Questions ?