Islamic State 2014 – ? 8 Million under IS control

War in Syria ? Deaths 250,000 Refugees 4.4 Million

War in Iraq ? Deaths 225,000 Displaced 2 Million

Origins of Islamic State Grew out of al Qaeda in Iraq, Founded 1999 from disparate groups by Abu Musab al Zarqawi Joins al Qaeda in 2003 Challenged Shi'ite led Iraqi government and US coalition forces 2007 Anbar Awakening, nearly defeated by and alliance of Sunni tribes and US forces Resurgent in 2009 as attacks on Shi’ite spark retaliation

Anbar Awakening ‘With its penchant for extreme brutality and insistence on implementing a fundamentalist and very strict version of sharia, al- Qaeda in Iraq does have a habit of wearing out its welcome.’ 2006, AQI attack on the al-Askari mosque in Samarra, provoked retribution from Shiites. US troop surge combined with an alliance of tribes produced the Sahawah al-Anbar (Anbar Awakening). Sheikh Abdul ‘One of the most remarkable aspects of the Anbar Awakening is that it was a successful collaboration between two forces, the Coalition and the Sunni tribal leadership, that had previously been adversaries from the earliest days of the Iraqi insurgency.’ AQI was substantially weakened by this effort. However after the US withdrawal in 2011 AQI was resurgent 8000 civilian deaths in 2013 alone

Ba’athist Jihadist Coalition

Expanse into Syria 2011 expands operations in Syria capitalizing on instability and protest. Attempts to absorb al Qaeda affiliate Jahbat al Nusra 2014, Splits from al Qaeda and declares Islamic State. Rapidly eclipses al Nusra and other rebel factions challenging al Assad

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al- Badri Phd in Islamic Studies Imprisoned in Camp Bucca Iraq during US invasion Became leader of al Qaeda in Iraq following Abu Omar al-Baghdadi 29 June 2014, Caliphate declared

Management of Savagery Abu Bakr Naji (2004) persistent violent action directed towards the instigation of instability so as to create a zone of conflict which the state will ultimately prove incapable of controlling. As state power withers, jihadists can take advantage of t instability filling the vacuum of power by either gaining popular support or at the least the submission of the populace through the provision of social services,

Global Reach Boko Haram Ansar al-Sharia (Tunisia) Jund al-Khilafah (Maghreb) Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan Jundallah (Pakistan) Caucasus Emirate Jemaah Islamiyah Abu Sayyaf Ansar Khalifah Philippinen Islamic State in the Sinae Factions of AQAP Factions of al Shabaab

Governing Structure administrative and service-oriented. holistic system of governance that includes religious, educational, judicial, security, humanitarian, infrastructure projects

Finances 2 Billion dollar reserve Sources of income, oil, selling of antiquities, sex trade, taxation, extortion, private donors Finances used to provide social services to citizens, pay for recruiting, buy weapons Oil smuggled into Turkey, Iran and Jordan

Major Players Syrian Government, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Shia Militias Islamic State Turkey Iraqi Government Saudi Arabia Salafi resistance groups US, Secular rebels

Russia vs Turkey

Assad Must Go/ Assad Must Stay Turkey, Saudi Arabia, US, Europe US, al Assad out, IS defeated, ‘Moderate’ rebels empowered Saudi Arabia, Assad out, IS defeated, Islamic groups take power Turkey: Assad out, No Kurdish independence, IS defeated. Who is left? Russia, Iran Russia: Assad remains, Russian military presence solidified (Tartus) Greater influence in Iraq, reduced US influence Iran: Assad remains, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite empowered, Continued influence in Iraq, reduced Saudi influence

ISIS Abroad Recruitment and finance Create a backlash against Muslim communities Exploit strained social- economic tensions

Elimination of the Gray Zone ‘Gray Zone’ Muslims who live in non Muslim majority states who do not support jihadism Attacks designed to draw reprisals from Western governments against IS and further inflame intercommunal relations Economic disenfranchisement and social alienation

Rivalry in the East ISIS continues to challenge al Qaeda in Asia by targeting and coopting al Qaeda allies. AQC allies: Jemat Islamia, Abu Sayif, Taliban