Decision Analysis Fall Term 2015 Marymount University School of Business Administration Professor Suydam Week 3 Excel Basics, Decision Support Systems in Excel, DSS Case Study

3-2 General Discussion (Professor Suydam/All): Plan for class Comments on VTC Chapters Grading Rubric for Case Studies and Mini-Projects Blackboard Groups Questions/problems Introduction for next Group-work project – Case Study 6

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3-5 For Case Study/Team Projects

Teach/reinforce (based on Tutorial C) how to create a decision support system (DSS) in Excel, presumably using the Scenario Manager; in this case, the student's DSS helps to assess the financial implications of sales growth and ingredient percentage changes Teach/reinforce (based on Tutorial C) how to document a decision in a memorandum and/or in an oral presentation Learn how to work and solve problems in teams 3-6

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New England Energy (NEE) is a regional electricity provider that operates its own generating plants and contracts for the construction and operation of government-owned utilities throughout New England and eastern Canada. As part of its investment strategy, NEE faces a major decision in 2014: the Canadian government has approached the company with a proposal to build a hydroelectric dam in Quebec. Prior to this proposal, NEE was considering whether to build the world’s first large methane (natural gas) fuel cell plant in upstate New York. By implementing either alternative, NEE would make an additional 1000 megawatts of electrical power available for sale on the New England power grid. However, variations in business and economic factors would affect the profitability of either alternative. 3-8

Complete Assignments 1, 2, and 2A Create a 1-page memo (Assignment 4) You can address the memo to NEE’s Chief Executive Officer explain your analysis and recommendations in 1 page. Be prepared (as a team) to discuss in class on Thursday 3-9

Template Key elements  Addressee(s)  Subject  Objective or Purpose  Background  Discussion  Recommendation(s) 3-10

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Failure to convert to consistent data values (e.g., costs, percentages, etc.) Absolute addressing Failure to formulate IF() statements Failure to consider all conditions (e.g., Weather Outlook M=Mild, S=Severe, etc.) Failure to distinguish all scenarios properly when setting up the Scenario Manager. Each scenario gets its own distinct set of input values; often times, students repeat values, one scenario to the next, and wind up with the same output values in the answer sheet. Tutorial C covers setting up the Scenario Manager in detail. “Decode” Changing Cells in Scenario Manager so they are understandable “Hard coding” constants in formulas, i.e., failure to refer to a constant by its cell address. This is simply bad form in spreadsheet programming. If the value of a constant were to change, then every hard-coded value in the spreadsheet would need to be manually changed. 3-12

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3-16 Pivot Practice