Indicators to Monitor The Millennium Development Goals: United Nations Statistical Institute For Asia and the Pacific Second Group Training Course in Module on Fundamental Official Statistics 13 – 14 February 2007 Chiba, JAPAN

2 The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) MDGs were set by countries (189 countries, 147 heads of the states) at the UN Millennium Summit, September 2000) "We will have time to reach the Millennium Development Goals – worldwide and in most, or even all, individual countries – but only if we break with business as usual. We cannot win overnight. Success will require sustained action across the entire decade between now and the deadline. It takes time to train the teachers, nurses and engineers; to build the roads, schools and hospitals; to grow the small and large businesses able to create the jobs and income needed. So we must start now. And we must more than double global development assistance over the next few years. Nothing less will help to achieve the Goals.“ United Nations Secretary-General Kofi A. Annan

3 l Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger l Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education l Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women l Goal 4: Reduce child mortality l Goal 5: Improve maternal health l Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases l Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability l Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 48 selected indicators48 selected indicators, aggregated at global and regional levels.

4 MDG Goals (Education) Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling. Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no later than 2015 Indicator 6: Net enrolment ratio in primary education Indicator 9: Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education Indicator 7A:The proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (Survival rate to Grade 5) Indicator 10: The ratio of literate women to men 15–24 years old (Gender Parity Index in Literacy) Indicator 7B: Primary Completion Rate Indicator 8: Literacy rate of 15–24 year-olds

5 Education MDGs and EFA : establishing linkages MDG goals: l By 2015, to ensure that children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling l Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and to all levels of education no later than EFA goals: 1. Early childhood education 2. UPE (free, compulsory and of quality) by Learning needs of young people and adults 4. Adult literacy increase by 50% by Gender parity by 2005 (primary and secondary), gender equality by Quality of education

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Indicator 6: Net Enrolment Ratios in Primary Education

7 Reasons behind l Primary education provides children with: è Basic reading è Writing è Mathematics skills è Elementary understanding of such subjects as history, geography, natural science, social science, art, and music

8 Definitions Net Primary Enrolment Ratio è Ratio of the number of children of official school age who are enrolled in primary school to the total population of children of official school age

9 Goal and Target Indicator 6 – Net Enrolment Ratio in Primary Education è Millennium Development Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education è MDG Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

10 Rationale NER is used to monitor progress toward the goal of achieving universal primary education, identified in both the MDGs and EFA initiatives è Shows the proportion of children of primary school age who are enrolled in primary school è Net enrolment refers only to children of official primary school age è NERs below 100 percent provide a measure of the proportion of school age children who are not enrolled at the primary level è Difference does not necessarily indicate the percentage of students who are not enrolled, since some children might be enrolled at other levels of education

11 Computation l To measure the participation of official school age population Enrolment of the official primary school age NERp = x 100 Population of official primary school age l The net level enrolment rate is also used to estimate the number of children not enrolled (out of school children), by subtracting NER from 100

12 Sample Country: Primary School Net Enrolment Ratio Question: How many children were not enrolled in primary school in this example? The answer is 30.4% or 100% – 69.6 Example GenderPopulationPupilsNER p Age 7-13 % Boys Girls Total

13 Interpretation l Note that we need enrolment by age to calculate the net enrolment ratio l Also note that a high NER denotes a high degree of participation in primary education of the official primary school age-group l The NER’s maximum value is 100% (in theory) l An NER that increases over time reflects improving participation at the primary level of education

14 NER vs. GER l When the NER is compared with the GER è difference between the two ratios measures the incidence of under-age and over-age enrolment è if the NER is below 100%, the percentage difference provides a measure of the proportion of primary school- age children not enrolled at the primary level l Some primary school-age children could be enrolled at other levels of education è percentage difference should not be considered as indicating the exact percentage of children not enrolled l ASER is more precise

15 Data Collection l Data on school enrolment are usually recorded by the country MOE or compiled from surveys and censuses l Data on the population in the official age group for the primary level are available from NSOs l For countries for which administrative data are not available, household survey data may be used to assess school attendance rather than enrolment l Among international surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and Demographic and Health Surveys provide school attendance data

16 Periodicity l Enrolment data are recorded regularly by MOEs l Data derived from surveys and censuses are less frequent l Household survey data are available for many developing countries at regular intervals of three to five years l NERs produced by UNESCO are available on an annual basis for two-thirds of countries l The UNPD estimates population by individual years of age biannually

17 Gender Issues l In general, boy enrolment is higher than girl enrolment at the primary level l Some of the reasons would be: è Social and cultural è Economics è Distance to school è Facilities at school (toilet)

18 Disaggregation Disaggregation Issues: è Rural and urban differences è Geographical areas and social or ethnic groups »Showing and analyzing data on specific ethnic groups may be a sensitive issue in the country »Gender differences may also be more pronounced in some social and ethnic groups

19 l School enrolments may be over-reported l Survey data may not reflect actual rates of attendance or dropout during the school year l Administrators may report exaggerated enrolments l Children who repeat years may mistakenly be included in the net figures l Children’s ages may be inaccurately estimated or misstated l Census data may be out of date or unreliable l Insufficient data on school enrolment by gender l Concepts and terms in household surveys and censuses do not remain constant over time Limitations

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Indicator 7A: Proportion of Pupils Starting Grade 1 Who Reach Grade 5

21 Definition The proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 è Known as the survival rate to grade 5 è The percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in grade 1 of the primary level of education in a given school year who are expected to reach grade 5

22 Goal and Target Indicator 7A – The proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 è Millennium Development Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education è MDG Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

23 Rationale Survival rate to grade 5: è Measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency è Indication of achieving basic literacy skill (Learning to read)

24 Where, i = grade (1, 2, 3,…,n)t = year (1, 2, 3, …,m)g = pupil-cohort = Survival Rate of pupil-cohort g at grade i for a reference year k = Total number of pupils belonging to a cohort g at a reference year k = Promotees from who would join successive grades i throughout successive years t = Number of pupils repeating grade i in school-year t Computation

25 Computation l Using reconstructed cohort-flow model Based on the notion that educational activities consume inputs in the form of teachers, facilities and funds for recurrent costs in order to produce literate and qualified persons as output Output Literate Qualified person Output Literate Qualified person Process Teaching learning process Process Teaching learning process Input Teachers Facilities Funds (recurrent & capital exp.) Input Teachers Facilities Funds (recurrent & capital exp.)

26 Output Promotion rate Repetition rate Drop-out rate Survival rate Coft. Efficiency Output Promotion rate Repetition rate Drop-out rate Survival rate Coft. Efficiency Process in Cohort model Input data Enrolments Repeaters Transfers Input data Enrolments Repeaters Transfers Student-Cohort Model

27 1.At any given grade, the same rates of repetition, promotion, and dropout apply, regardless of whether a pupil has reached that grade directly or after one or more repetitions; 2. There will be no additional pupils (new entrants) in any of the subsequent years during the life-time of the cohort, other than original cohort of 1,000 pupils; 3. The number of times any pupil will be allowed to repeat a grade must be well defined. Fundamental assumptions

28 1. Number of repeaters by grade in the second year 2. Number of graduates (successful completers) in the first year 3. Number of students enrolled by grade for two consecutive years not 4. Number of net transfers (optional): (a) during the first year (for those not included in the beginning of previous school-year enrolment figure) and (b) at the beginning of the second year (for those transfers from other schools (or different province) and included in the beginning of current school-year enrolment figure) Required input data

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30 Data Collection l Grade-specific enrolment data for two successive years for a country and on grade repeater data l Household survey data are obtained from Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys in a standard way and include information on current and last year school grade and level of attendance

31 Periodicity l Where the data are available, they are published annually about two years after the reference year l Household surveys, such as Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys, are generally conducted every three to five years

32 Gender Issues Gender Issues affecting the use of this indicator: è Frequency and drop-out patterns vary between girls and boys è However, findings show that girls outperform than boys in term of performance

33 Disaggregation Disaggregation Issues: è Rural and urban differences è Geographical areas and social or ethnic groups »Showing and analyzing data on specific ethnic groups may be a sensitive issue in the country »Gender differences may also be more pronounced in some social and ethnic groups

34 Limits: è Flows caused by new entrants, reentrants, grade skipping, migration or transfers during the school year are not considered Considerations: è Should be complemented by grade 1 intake rate, because together the indicators give a much better sense of the proportion of children in the population who complete primary education Limitations

35 Data sources l Usually MOE produced the indicator by using the data from school censuses l The number of countries reporting data for this indicator has increased over time in part because of recent inclusion of estimates obtained from household surveys such as Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Indicator 7B: Primary Completion Rate

37 Definition Primary Completion Rate è The ratio of the total number of students successfully completing (or graduating from) the last year of primary school in a given year to the total number of children of official graduation age in the population

38 Goal and Target Indicator 7B – Primary Completion Rate è Millennium Development Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education è MDG Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

39 Rationale Primary Completion Rate: è Intended to measure human capital formation and school system quality and efficiency è Focuses on the share of children who complete the cycle; not a measure of “on-time” primary completion è Various factors may lead to poor performance on this indicator: »low quality of schooling »discouragement over poor performance and »the direct and indirect costs of schooling »students’ progress to higher grades may also be limited by the availability of teachers, classrooms and educational materials

40 Computation Method of Computation for Primary Completion Rate (PCR): the total number of students successfully completing (or graduating from) the last year of primary school in a given year PCR = x 100 Population of official graduation age Proxy “PCR Gross intake rate to last grade of primary” Number of children in last primary grade – Number of repeaters = x 100 Number of children of entrance age to last primary grade

41 Data Collection The indicator is compiled by Education Group of the World Bank’s Human Development Network based on: è Enrolment data from national MOEs è Population data from National Census Office This indicator is measured annually

42 Gender Issues Gender Issues affecting the use of this indicator: è It seems that more understanding is needed on the patterns of completion by gender.

43 Disaggregation Disaggregation Issues: è Rural and urban differences è Geographical areas and social or ethnic groups »Showing and analyzing data on specific ethnic groups may be a sensitive issue in the country »Gender differences may also be more pronounced in some social and ethnic groups

44 Limitations of Primary Completion Rate: l Availability of data on graduates l Methodology l When age-specific population breakdowns are not available, primary completion rate cannot be estimated l Primary completion rates based on primary enrolment have an upward bias Limitations

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Indicator 8: Literacy Rate of Year-Olds

46 Definition Literacy rate of 15–24 year-olds: è Also known as the youth literacy rate, is the percentage of the population ages 15– 24 years-old who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on everyday life è The definition of literacy sometimes extends to basic arithmetic and other life skills

47 Goal and Target Indicator 8 – Literacy rate of 15–24year-olds: è Millennium Development Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education è MDG Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

48 Rationale The youth literacy rate reflects the outcomes of primary education over the previous 10 years or so è Often seen as a proxy measure of social progress and economic achievement è The literacy rate for this analysis is simply the complement of the illiteracy rate è Not a measure of quality and adequacy of the literacy level needed for individuals to function in a society è Reasons for failing to achieve the literacy standard may include low quality of schooling, difficulties in attending school or dropping out before reaching grade 5

49 Computation Youth Literacy Rate (age year olds): Literate population aged years old in year t = x 100 Population aged years old in year t

50 Sample Country: Literacy rate of 15–24 year-olds l What is the Illiteracy rate of this sample country? l The answer is 48% or 100 minus the literacy rate which is 52% Example Population aged Number of people age 15 – 24 who are literate 19,654,88910,232,591

51 Data Collection l Literacy data may be derived from population censuses, household surveys and literacy surveys, and total population is derived from national censuses or sample surveys l Not all censuses or surveys include specific questions for assessing literacy l In some countries where literacy questions are not included, a person’s educational attainment is used to assess literacy status l A common practice is to consider those with no schooling as illiterate and those who have attended grade 5 of primary school as literate l Many household surveys collect literacy data l Most of the available data on literacy are based on reported literacy rather than on tested literacy and in some cases are derived from other proxy information

52 Periodicity l Youth literacy rates may change more quickly than adult literacy rates and therefore need to be measured more often l Since population censuses normally occur only every 10 years, input from more frequently administered labour force and household surveys are used for annual estimates l Household surveys are generally conducted every three to five years in most developing countries

53 Gender Issues è Higher illiteracy rates for women are the result of lower school enrolment and early dropouts è Moreover, because women generally have less access to information and training and literacy programmes, estimates based on enrolments may overestimate literacy for girls

54 Disaggregation Disaggregation Issues: è Rural and urban differences è Geographical areas and social or ethnic groups »Showing and analyzing data on specific ethnic groups may be a sensitive issue in the country »Gender differences may also be more pronounced in some social and ethnic groups

55 l Measurements of literacy can vary from simply asking “Are you literate or not?” to testing to assess literacy skills l Comparability over time may also be a problem because definitions of literacy used in the surveys are not standardized l UN Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses advises countries against adopting a proxy measurement based on educational attainment l It recommends that literacy questions be administered as part of national censuses and household surveys, or as part of a post-census sample enumeration l Shortcomings in the definition of literacy, measurement problems and infrequency of censuses and literacy surveys weaken this indicator as a means of monitoring education outcomes related to the goal of achieving universal primary education Limitations

56 Data sources l Censuses, l Household Surveys l Literacy Assessment Survey

Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Indicator 9: Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education

58 Definition Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education è The number of female students enrolled at primary, secondary and tertiary levels in public and private schools to the number of male students

59 Goal and Target Indicator 9 – Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education è Millennium Development Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women è MDG Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no later than 2015

60 Rationale l The indicator of equality of educational opportunity, measured in terms of school enrolment, is a measure of both fairness and efficiency l Education is one of the most important aspects of human development l Eliminating gender disparity at all levels of education would help to increase the status and capabilities of women l Female education is an important determinant of economic development

61 Computation Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary Education Female Enrolment in Primary Education level = x 100 Male Enrolment in Primary Education level Ratio of Girls to Boys in Secondary Education Female Enrolment in Secondary Education level = x 100 Male Enrolment in Secondary Education level Ratio of Girls to Boys in Tertiary Education Female Enrolment in Tertiary Education level = x 100 Male Enrolment in Tertiary Education level

62 Data Collection l Data on school enrolment are usually recorded by the MOE or derived from surveys and censuses l If administrative data are not available, household survey data may be used, although household surveys usually measure self-reported attendance rather than enrolment as reported by schools l Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys provide school attendance data l For international comparison and estimation of regional and global aggregates, UIS data series on school enrolment can be used l The series is based on data reported by education ministries or national agencies for enrolment l UNESCO produces ratios of girls to boys at country, regional and global levels for use in monitoring the Millennium Development Goals

63 Periodicity l Where official enrolment data are available, estimates from UNESCO are normally available annually about one year after the reference year l Data from household surveys may be available for selected countries at various intervals l Official data on higher education are not as frequently reported as data on primary and secondary enrolment

64 l Difficulty in having at Tertiary level l Private education tends to be under-reported l Household survey data may include higher and private education, but may not be comparable between surveys l The indicator is an imperfect measure of the accessibility of schooling for girls l Does not indicate whether those enrolled in school complete the relevant education cycles l Ratio reflects the gender structure of the school-age population l A ratio based on NER (indicator 6) or GER is a better measure for this indicator Limitations

Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Indicator 10: Ratio of literate women to men 15–24 years old

66 Definition The Ratio of Literate Women to Men 15–24 Years Old è This indicator (also known as the Literacy Gender Parity Index) is the ratio of the female literacy rate to the male literacy rate for the age group 15–24

67 Goal and Target Indicator 10 – The Ratio of Literate Women to Men 15–24 Years Old è Millennium Development Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women è MDG Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education no later than 2015

68 Rationale l Indicator measures progress towards gender equity in literacy and learning opportunities for women in relation to those for men l Measures a presumed outcome of attending school and a key indicator of empowerment of women in society l Literacy is a fundamental skill to empower women to take control of their lives, to engage directly with authority and to gain access to the wider world of learning

69 Computation Gender Parity Index for Youth (15-24 year old) Literacy Rate Female Literacy rate of age-group 15–24 Years Old = x 100 Male Literacy rate of age-group 15–24 Years Old l A value of less than one indicates the difference in favor of boys, whereas a value close to one indicates that parity has been achieved l Gender parity is sometimes considered to have been attained when the GPI lies between 0.97 and 1.03* *Global monitoring report 2003/4

70 Where to find more: l MDG Indicators MDG Indicators l MDG Info 2006 MDG Info 2006 l UIS and MDG UIS and MDG l UNESCO and MDG UNESCO and MDG “Handbook for Monitoring MDGs - Indicators for Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals--Definitions, Rationale, Concepts and Sources”.