Eventual Energy Independence Is Most Likely a Myth

Outline of Discussion A definition of Self Sufficency: “The ability to produce the various forms of energy needed by the nation from resources within our boundaries or at least there are no net imports of BTU’s. Where are we today? What are Current Predictions? The fallibility of Long Range Forecasts The factors that most impact self sufficiency and our ability to control them

By 2015, According the EIA the U. S. was 91% Self Sufficient

As reported by Political, November2013, the well known Energy Consultant, Daniel Yergin said, “For four decades, whenever the American political debate turned to energy, the discussion was all about shortage and scarcity, a reality that haunted the United States ever since the global crises of the 1970’s.” That conversation is over. And now the unconventional energy revolution—newly accessible supplies of shale gas and oil—is creating a new discourse on energy that is changing politics and policies. All of this represents what Energy Secretary Moniz calls a “new mentality” about America’s energy position, with a new political language to match.” Dr. Yergin goes on to say, “Now Energy Independence” is back in vogue, not as a joke, but as a serious topic of political discussion. It is not likely that the United States will actually become energy independent, but it will certainly become a-lot-less dependent.” Remember the price of oil was in the $100.00/Bbl Range in 2013

What do the Last Five Candidates Running for the President have to Say about Energy and Energy Self Sufficiency For The U S ? X X

I support removing tax subsidies for all forms of energy, including wind and solar. X

Ohio Governor Kasich X

Secretary Clinton Energy Policy “By the end of my first term, we will have installed a half a billion more solar panels, and by the end of my second term, enough clean energy to power every home in America,” Clinton said at the Blue Jamboree in Charleston South Carolina on Saturday

I worry about the future when it comes to American Energy Policy of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. When asked whether they supported Fracking? Here are their answers as reported by The American Speculator. Hillary in her final statement said “By the time we get through all my conditions I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place.” Bernie said “My answer is a lot shorter, No I do not support fracking.” Beirne is is a tree hugger and the greenest of those running for President and has bought into Al Gores’ philosophy hook line and sinker. He hates big oil companies.

A Machine to Predict The Future 1.“Man will appreciate Most the men who say, Stop, Look and Listen rather than Those who say, Let us Look it Up in the Forecast.” 2.“Man needs to survey the future but remember that ones forecast is likely to be wrong, because he can not predict what is the in the minds of those few men who control the future”

April 29, 2016 Sometimes we wonder if we are still living in the land of the free. Witness the subpoena from Claude Walker, Attorney General of the U. S. Virgin Islands, demanding that the Competitive Enterprise Institute cough up a decade of s and policy work, as well as a list of private donors. And then there is the case of Exxon-Mobil where New York Attorney General filed a subpoena barrage on ExxonMobil last fall

In Conclusion I Offer you the following thoughts: 1.If the wrong party gets elected in November you can forget about Oil Self Sufficiency, probably forever. For sure if the are elected for two terms. 2.If the Climate Police become more active, that could make our dream of E Energy Sufficency, harder to ever realize. 3.Even the CEO’s of two biggest oil companies, can’t get it right in forecasting because they cannot know what is the minds of those that control the future. Even thou they spend 100,000’s of dollars each year. Footnote Do you find it surprising that neither provide a price forecast with their analysis. 4.Fracking is absolutely essential if we ever have any hope of becoming self sufficient in both oil and gas. Half of our oil production which peaked at about 4.5 million last year has come from fracked wells. 5.We can probably become self sufficient in natural gas if gas prices reach the range of $5.00 to $7.00/MCF, in instead of the $2.00/MCF today. Continued

6. What happens in the Middle East will significantly affect the price of oil and the number of rigs drilling for oil in America. 7.Eventual Energy Independence for America is most likely a myth. Yet advances in drilling and completions technologies have made our nation less dependent on foreign energy sources. The continuation of all forms of technology for both conventional and unconventional energy production must be advocated by all Americans. 8.Oil Prices of $100 to 150 dollars per barrel are probably not sufficient over the next three decades to achieve oil self sufficiency.

Growth and Decline of U S Shale Oil From Jack Zagar