Investigating the Relationship between Incoming A Level Grades and Final Degree Classification Tomas James Introduction Universities use A Levels as the primary method of determining a student’s suitability to study on the courses that they offer. Although good A Levels are heavily used as an indication that a student will perform well at university, there is some doubt as to the validity of this way of thinking. Moreover, recent research has shown that A Levels in physics and mathematics are not providing students with adequate knowledge to begin degree study [Mind the Gap, 2011,p3] casting further doubt on the notion that A Levels are positively correlated with final degree classification. Throughout this project, confidentiality and anonymity were maintained. Methodology Data from UCAS admissions forms – such as A level subject and grades - for the 3 year groups was entered into an Excel spreadsheet. Average year marks were obtained as well as final degree classification and enrolment status. These were collated and then filtered for each year group before being transferred to Origin 7. The following graphs were then plotted: -Year 1 Average Mark vs Incoming Physics A Level Grade -Year 1 Average Mark vs Incoming Maths A Level Grade -Final Degree Classification vs Incoming Maths A Level Grade Origin 7 was also used to calculate the standard deviation about the mean for each grade and this is shown on the graphs, together with a linear line of best fit graphically representing the correlation. Origin 7 was also used to produce plots showing the breakdown of student domicile along with the ratio of male to female students. Aims The aims for this project were: -to investigate undergraduate physics student performance for entry year groups 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09 and to determine whether or not correlation was present between incoming A Level grade and outgoing degree classification. -to perform domicile, gender and preliminary year statistics A B C Figure 2: A, B and C show the correlation between incoming Mathematics A Level Grade and Final Degree Classification. Figure 1: A, B and C show the correlation between first year average mark and A2 maths tariff points. A B C Conclusions Year 1 is based around concepts taught at A Level, so one might expect that year 1 performance is heavily influenced by A Level grade and as such shows relatively strong correlation, whereas the final year is more dependent on skills taught throughout a degree and as such shows very little, if any, correlation to A Level grade. Figures 1, 2 and 3 show these relationships. Interestingly, the spread of data in all graphs was wider than was expected. The standard deviation for each grade group overshadows the correlation, even in the strongest of cases. These deviations also overlap; some people with 80 tariff points achieve better marks than some people with 100 or even 120 tariff points. This feature is more prevalent in figure 2. This shows that good university performance is not solely dependent on good A Level performance. Another interesting property of figures 1 and 2 is that they show that A Level maths is correlated more positively with year 1 average than when compared to A Level physics. This could be attributed to the fact that A Level maths is more focused around problem solving than A level physics and as such is of more benefit to first year physics students learning to solve physics problems. Figure 4 shows the breakdown of classifications achieved by students that completed A Levels. Both B and C have a maxima at the 2:1 classification whilst A has a maxima about the 2:2 classification, however there is appreciable spread either side of these maxima in all cases. All figures are Gaussian distributions, showing that whilst most students achieve the classification that the maxima resides at, there is an appreciable number of students who do not. There are several variables that are difficult to analyse. The quality of teaching experienced by students may lead to potential misrepresentation. The variation in examining board would also have played a significant role in the first year performance of students however further study is required to corroborate this. Figure 4:A, B and C show breakdowns of the marks achieved by students in 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09. A B C A B Figure 3: A, B and C show the correlation between first year average mark and incoming physics tariff points. C