Spex Projections for Arrowtooth and Yelloweye Rockfish

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Presentation transcript:

Spex Projections for Arrowtooth and Yelloweye Rockfish

FMSY used to set OFL in 2015 and beyond a/ Stock 2015 ACL (mt) 2016 ACL (mt) FMSY used to set OFL in 2015 and beyond a/ ABC Control Rule 2015-16 ACL Control Rule Stock Cat. 2015-16 Sigma 2015-16 P* 2015-16 ABC Buffer b/ ATF ???? SPR = 30% 2 0.72 0.4 16.7% 25-5 rule YEYE 18 19 SPR = 50% SPR = 76.0% a/ SPR = spawning potential ratio, which is the average fecundity of a recruit over its lifetime when the stock is fished divided by the average fecundity of a recruit over its lifetime when the stock is unfished. An SPR harvest rate is the proportion of unfished reproductive potential allowed by harvesting. b/ The 2015-16 ABC buffer assumes the same P* as was decided for 2013-14.

Arrowtooth; New Data New catch and discard data is from the 2015 data-moderate stock assessment of arrowtooth flounder by Jason Cope. The trawl discards are included as a “fishery” and hence can be part of an extended forecast run.

Arrowtooth Scenarios ABC scenario: An expected total mortality of 2,500mt was used for 2015 and 2016. Starting in 2017 the model was run for an additional 10 years with the full ACL amount taken each year. Expected Catch scenario: An expected total mortality of 2,500mt was removed for each year for 2015-2026.

Arrowtooth ABC Scenario

ATF Data for the ABC Scenario.

Arrowtooth Expected Catch

ATF Data for the Expected Catch

Yelloweye; New Data For the 2011 yelloweye assessment the last year of catch data was from the 2010 GMT scorecard and totals 13.1mt. The 2010 Mortality Report has the actual yelloweye mortality at 7.6mt. Given this large difference, the 2010 catch was adjusted to sum to 7.6mt using the same 2010 fishery proportions as in the base model.

Yelloweye; New Data (cont.) The catch data for 2011-2013 is from the WCGOP Mortality Reports and 2014 is from the adjusted GMT scorecard, as was done in the Catch Report for the 2015-16 Biennium, the scorecard was updated with NOAA’s Pacific Coast Groundfish Individual Fishing Quota tallies for 2014.

Yelloweye Scenarios ABC scenario: An initial model with SPR = 76% was run to find the catches for 2017-2020. These catches were added to the actual catches and a maximum expected catch of 18 and 19mt for 2015 and 2016, respectively. A second model was then run with SPR = 50% to find the OFL and ABC values.

Yelloweye Scenarios (cont.) Expected Catch scenario: A maximum expected catch of 18mt was removed for 2015 and then 19mt was removed each year for 2016-2020.

Yelloweye ABC Scenario

YEYE ABC Scenario Data

Yelloweye Expected Catch

YEYE Data for Expected Catch