Civil Assets, Stations & Facilities Project - ESTEEM (WLC) (Engineering Strategy for Economic & Efficient Management) April 2010

WLC savings in excess of 20% over 30 years in comparison with current practice Bayesian (ABLE) enables Learning & Clear traceability of actual performance against plan based on Probability BAU User screens for Data Collection & Change Management Instant access to integrated data, AAMP produced from Business as Usual (BAU) Verifiable prediction of “Residual Liability” to minimise future “Investment Bow Wave” and Financial Risk. Benefits

Decision Tree or Equivalent for WLC Optimisation “Time Variant” Data Warehouse for Data Management (philosophy of data entered only once) Bayesian used for Modelling Uncertainty that is Complex - Variable Duty/Environments/Systems/Costs/Degradation BAU User Screens supports Change Management & Bayesian Updates of Plan Forecasts. ESTEEM Methodology

WLC Optimisation Asset in Good Condition Yes £20k Yes £70k Yes £100k Yes £200k Planned Maintenance (2 yrs) Breakdown (Component Replace) No (Postpone 5 yrs) Replace Major Components No (Postpone 10 yrs) Performance Loss + System Degradation No (Postpone 4 yrs) New Asset/ System? Close Note: The replace option is not appropriate for LU Civil Assets, and is only shown here to illustrate the concept of WLC (Paint) (Shot Blast &Paint) (Patch Repair & Paint) (Replace)

Policy 1: Meet Standards and Contract Benchmarks Policy 2: Least Cost to Maintain Assets in Perpetuity Policy 3: Expenditure Deferred Safely for a 5-10 year Period Policy 4: Do the Minimum, i.e. Expenditure Deferred within Safety Constraints Policies can be Mixed to Illustrate Long Term Consequences of Different Budget Constraints. Policy Options

NOW N years Long-Term Decision Tree Mouchel Latest Event Time Node Least Cost Path for a Policy Option

Asset Condition Assessment Data Warehouse “Plan, Do, Review, Actions and Impacts” tracks data quality, knowledge change, costs, unit rates, condition and degradation at MI level Hand Held Inspections Scenario Plans, AAMP, Excel Shops for Decision Analytics & Feedback Loop Work Scheduling Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM) Techniques ABLE Model Data Management & Bayesian Engineering Methods (optimisation) Prior Model Rules Sample Studies Asset Life- Degradation Environments Prior Model Data Governance – Master Data Management Layer WLC Optimise & Population Models BAU Web User s SAP Accounting

User Screens & Reports (Costs are illustrative only)

Pivot Table A – Slice 2 Policy 2 standard interventions (masonry, concrete, painting)

Pivot Table A - Slice 1 Policy 1 Custom Interventions Deck Strengthening

“If implemented as planned ESTEEM exceeds PAS55 Asset Management requirements and should be in the “Excellence” band of the audit Model. Defined as “Leading edge and continuously improving” This would represent a “World Best Practice” Approach to Asset Management (AM) for Long Lived Assets” LU committed to PAS55 ESTEEM designed as “a centre of excellence for AM” in LU that is recognisable by stakeholders. Independent Audit by ORR Reporters