Starter Can you think of a link between … … in 5 steps? A tractor A surgeon

(3.1.3) To analyse diagrams showing Demographic Transition Learning aim(s) – IB ESS

Demographic transition Picture cards - Arrange the cards into groups: 1.Factors affecting BR; factors affecting DR 2.Chronological order (approx.) 3.Factors relevant to richer countries; factors relevant to poorer countries Do you notice any patterns or connections? e.g.: Which factors (BR,DR) changed earlier? Later? Which kinds of countries changed these factors earlier? Which factors are more relevant to richer/poorer countries today? etc. Connection finding

1.Do these pictures show high or low BR? 2.Suggest where these families lived, and (approx) when they lived

When were these factors in Europe? Reasons for high BR Lack of family planning / contraception High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious & cultural beliefs Children as economic assets – can provide paid or unpaid labour Women have low status Reasons for high DR Unreliable food supply Lack of health care Lack of clean water and sanitation High levels of disease War / conflict between tribes Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education

Demographic transition

What are the similarities between all these graphs? BR and DR decrease DR decreases first BR decreases later (there is a lag time) During the lag time, BR > DR so population size increases These changes are summarised in a model Seeing the big picture

(geographyalltheway slideshow)

Key words Demographic transition (noun, process) – population change Model (noun) – a generalised form, that shows the main ideas without individual details The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) show how populations change over time – specifically, how BR and DR change progressively, and how this affects the total population size. Precision

e.g.: Why is DR high? Why does DR decrease? Why does BR remain high? Why does BR decrease? What happens to population size? Annotate your diagram of the DTM with reasons for the changes Use the information on the cards and on p.90

Review LA: To analyse diagrams showing demographic transition. Can you think of a link yet? A tractor A surgeon

Homework Read p Answer Q2 (p.92) Due next lesson.

Starter Hans Rosling “200 years that changed the world” What caused the changes shown in this video? (many possible answers)

To analyse diagrams showing Demographic Transition (3.1.3) Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations (3.1.4) Learning aim(s) – IB ESS

Key words Demographic transition (noun, process) – population change Model (noun) – a generalised form, that shows the main ideas without individual details The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) show how populations change over time – specifically, how BR and DR change progressively, and how this affects the total population size. Precision

e.g.: Why is DR high? Why does DR decrease? Why does BR remain high? Why does BR decrease? What happens to population size? Annotate your diagram of the DTM with reasons for the changes Use the information on the cards and on p.90

Analyse diagrams showing... “Break down information into parts” Stages Example countries Reasons / causes Discuss the use of models “Give a balanced review” Pros and cons Evaluation

At which stage are these countries? Do they all reach the stages at the same rate? Why / why not? Demographic transition

TIME SCALE What sort of time-scale would have applied to this model in the Czech republic? Where on this model do you estimate Mexico is? Where on this model do you estimate India is? Would the time-scales for Mexico and India be the same as it was for the UK? Why? Demographic transition

Is stage 4 accurate for all European countries now? Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which is why the model is now often shown with a fifth stage added to it. What are the reasons for this change? Demographic transition

How might these events affect the shape of this model? Would they change the BR or DR, and how? WWII? The AIDS crisis in southern Africa? Western aid to less developed nations? Religious fundamentalism? China’s one-child policy? Major natural catastrophe (e.g.: Haiti earthquake, Indian Ocean tsunami) or war? Demographic transition

What are the pros & cons of using this model? Based on observations in UK, Wales, Sweden, Germany – only 4 countries Western aid alters the rate of DR/BR decrease Modern industrialisation (China, Brazil, India, SK etc.) happens much faster than during Industrial Revolution Aggressive government policies on population e.g.: China’s one child policy HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa – hugely increases DR Stage 5: BR > DR resulting in neg- growth. Is this going to happen everywhere? Demographic transition

Evaluate the Demographic Transition Model as a tool for predicting population changes.  Very accurate / useful Not at all accurate / useful Intellectual confidence

Review LA: To analyse diagrams showing demographic transition. Review syllabus & write comments

Homework IB-style question about demographic transition model. 12 marks Due next lesson.