The Confluence of Water Resources and National Security Where, why and how policy currents converge. Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman Transboundary Water Resources

Water Resources National Security Water in the landscape (above and below ground) with current or potential value to the community and the environment. - Western Australia Water and Rivers Commission Condition of a nation’s safety from threats, especially threats from external sources. - McGraw Hill Online

Two Perspectives: Water Resources professionals: When and how will national security affect water resources? National Security professionals: When and how will water affect national security?

Analysis: Why, when & how have links developed? CAUSES Can we predict future occurrences? Can we predict future occurrences?INDICATORS

River Basin Case Studies River Basin Case Studies  Jordan Syria, Israel, JordanSyria, Israel, Jordan  Nile Ethiopia, Sudan, EgyptEthiopia, Sudan, Egypt  Indus India, PakistanIndia, Pakistan  Tigris-Euphrates Turkey, Syria, IraqTurkey, Syria, Iraq

Jordan Basin  Post WWI – Mandates  1948 – State of Israel  1950’s – plans  1960’s – conflicts  1967 – Six Day War  PLO attacks  1980’s threats  1990’s treaties  2000’s 2nd Intifadeh

Jordan Basin  Politically charged  Population 10M+ double in 30 yearsdouble in 30 years  Already “water stressed”  Boundary issues  Allocation inequities

Nile Basin  Interested in 3 of 9 basin countries  Egypt Lowest riparianLowest riparian Most dependentMost dependent Most powerfulMost powerful Big US aid recipientBig US aid recipient  Ethiopia Contributes mostContributes most Uses leastUses least PoorestPoorest  Sudan – in between

Nile Basin  Colonial cash-crop economies  1929 Treaty  Century Storage Scheme  1959 Treaty  Aswan High Dam  Cold War politics  Civil wars

Indus Basin  British build canals for flood control and irrigation  1947 – Partition India – key headwatersIndia – key headwaters Pakistan – bulk of canals and farmlandPakistan – bulk of canals and farmland  1948 – India cuts flow, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war  – World Bank mediation  Indus Water Treaty earthtrends.wri.org

Tigris-Euphrates Basin  Earliest water conflicts  Turkey Source of both riversSource of both rivers GAP - $30B projectGAP - $30B project  Syria very dependent on Euphrates  Iraq totally dependent on both rivers  1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria  1990 – Ataturk Dam earthtrends.wri.org

Analysis National Security-Water Resources Linkage Common Factors:  Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture  Power imbalance (economic/military)  Presence of non-water disputes  Non-joint development  Outside influences*

CAUSES National Security-Water Resources Linkage  Jordan Basin Conflict exists before water disputesConflict exists before water disputes One state alters status by occupying territoryOne state alters status by occupying territory  Nile Basin Lower riparian completely dependentLower riparian completely dependent Powerful country publicly announces linkPowerful country publicly announces link  Indus Basin Water policy of one state affects interest of lower riparianWater policy of one state affects interest of lower riparian  Tigris-Euphrates Actions fuel unease over future possibilitiesActions fuel unease over future possibilities

(Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage  Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf  Change in political boundaries creating new riparians -Wolf  Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf

Postel & Wolf : Foreign Policy – September/October 2001

 Previous retrospective indicators 1.Unilateral development of a basin 2.Change in political boundaries creating new riparians  New predictive indicators 3.Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin 4.At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or nearly fully utilized (New) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage

Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security  At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage  Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage

Apply the Framework I. At Least 1 Applies Unilateral Development  Nile  Jordan  Indus  Tigris – Euphrates Major Change  Nile  Jordan  Indus  Tigris – Euphrates  II. At Least 1 Applies Non-water Tensions  Nile  Jordan  Indus  Tigris – Euphrates Scarce/Vulnerable Water  Nile  Jordan  Indus  Tigris – Euphrates

Apply the Framework I. At Least 1 Applies Unilateral Development  Nile- Y  Jordan - Y  Indus - N  Tigris – Euph – Y (GAP) Major Change  Nile – y (Sudan)  Jordan – Y  Indus – y (1947 part.)  Tigris – Euph - Y  II. At Least 1 Applies Non-water Tensions  Nile- y (Sudan)  Jordan - Y  Indus – y (Kashmir)  Tigris – Euph - Y Scarce/Vulnerable Water  Nile - Y  Jordan - Y  Indus – y (IWT)  Tigris – Euph - Y