Impact of US Temperature Anomalies on Tornado and Hail Occurrence

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of US Temperature Anomalies on Tornado and Hail Occurrence Harold Brooks NOAA/NSSL Harold.brooks@noaa.gov

Forward Into the Past Naïve thought-past warm periods as analog for future May give some bounds on expected change Caution-patterns? F1+ tornadoes Days with more than 6 F1+ tornadoes (half of tornadoes) 1.25” hail on 1x1 degree grid-yes/no

Comparisons Focus on running 3-month periods Use Kendall’s tau to look for changes with temperature Use linear regression to get idea of magnitude

What is reality? Tornadoes Hail Warm-season fewer in warm years (30%/°C) Cool-season more in warm years (15-20%/°C) Similar pattern for “big” days, shifted earlier (30%/°C) Hail Resembles tornado, but not as significant and less signal in summer Are CPC 3-month temperature forecasts good enough and the tornado relationship strong enough to use this?