Session IV: Expenditures and price deflators reporting Estimation of National Account Expenditures for Non-benchmark Years 2 nd Regional Coordinating Agencies meeting May 27-29, 2015 Washington, DC

Extrapolation for non-benchmark years ‒Data source: GDP Deflator, CPI ‒GDP: Global GDP PPPs are extrapolated by multiplying by [GDP deflator of the country/GDP deflator of USA] ‒HHC: Global HHC PPPs are extrapolated by multiplying by [CPI of the country/CPI of the USA] Current WDI Method Elaborated method is in need  Tests are being conducted with more detailed data

Potential data sources World Development Indicators (WDI) 1 1 UNSD National Accounts Official Country Data 2 2 National Statistical Offices (NSO) Websites 3 3 Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ICP Expenditure Data ICP Expenditure Data 2 2 GDP and Expenditure weights (above category level) Expenditure weights (below category level) and gap filling

Estimation steps Step 1: GDP data extraction Extract data for GDP from WDI database (where GDP is not available in WDI, extract GDP from secondary sources) Step 2: Main aggregate data extraction Extract data for Main Aggregate level from UNSD National Accounts Official Country Data Table 1.1 Step 3: Category data extraction Extract data for Category level from UNSD National Accounts Official Country Data Table 3.2 Step 4: Data from NSO website and EIU Where there is no information in UNSD National Accounts Official Country Data, extract figures from NSO website or EIU Step 5: Fiscal year adjustment Where fiscal year is used for reporting, adjust them to calendar year Step 6: Gap-filling Where there are any missing level of aggregate, apply ICP 2011 / 2005 structures to their closest aggregate figure obtained in Step 5 Step 7: Re-scaling Re-scale (re-calibrate) figures to match the GDP figure Step 8: Validation (temporal and SNA compliance) Conduct final validation to check whether the newly estimated data are temporally in line and follow SNA compliance and ICP requirements Example expenditure estimation steps:

Limitation: Data availability (1) Country Coverage Level of Aggregation Timeliness (most recent) 214 economies (199 participation) 177 economies with full data 22 economies with partial data (HHC only etc.) 15 non-benchmark economies GDP: 1 Main Aggregate: 8 Category: 26 Group: 61 Class: 126 Basic Heading: ICP 2011

Limitation: Data availability (2) 2011WDIUNSDEIUICP Gross Domestic Product Household Consumption Main Aggregate Category (only HHC)058(47)(199) Group, Class, Basic Headings000(199) 2012WDIUNSDEIUICP Gross Domestic Product Household Consumption Main Aggregate Category (only HHC)051(47)- Group, Class, Basic Headings WDIUNSDEIUICP Gross Domestic Product Household Consumption Main Aggregate Category (only HHC)015(47)- Group, Class, Basic Headings000- Note: Of 214 countries / WDI data are as of Feb, UNSD as of Nov, EIU as of Oct, 2014 International Databases (Number of countries with complete data set for the level of aggregation)

Limitation: Data availability (3) NSO’s website (Number of countries for ) Available Main Aggregate11 Main Aggregate (No breakdown for Gov.)20 Category8 Example: NSO websites of 38 counties with which UN/WDI data had missing information

Limitation: Methodological differences Several factors limit the construction of time series: – Coverage: Production vs. expenditure-based annual national accounts – Comparability: SNA frameworks (68 vs 93 vs ‘08 SNA), Vintages – Plausibility: Limited metadata to guide consistency checks (e.g. ToT) Treatment of HHC as Residual, of NPISH, Stat. discrepancy

Limitation: Other issues (1) Most of the data sources are based on COICOP classification, However; Mapping between ICP classifications and other sources WDI EIU Gross fixed capital formation includes Acquisitions less disposals of valuables, unlike ICP, which treats both separately in accordance with 1993 SNA. HHC categories are combined into 9 (where ICP has 13)

Limitation: Other issues (2) Treatment of fiscal year based figures (ICP/CY) Countries Reporting on Fiscal Year basis WDI20 Official Country Data (UNSD)19 Overlaps (WDI UNSD)17 Examples: Uganda (different), Saudi Arabia (per UNSD), Swaziland (actual reporting periods differ) Note: Of 214 countries; WDI data are as of Feb. 2015; UNSD as of Nov

Limitation: Other issues (3) Number of countries with computable GDP deflators WDI Official Country Data (UNSD) Note: Of 214 countries; WDI data are as of Feb. 2015; UNSD as of Nov

Way forward Data compiled in existing international databases or from NSOs websites are not readily suitable for ICP extrapolation purposes Regional National Accounts datasets? Draw on established reporting processes from NCAs to RCAs, to disseminate NA data more frequently? Metadata, metadata, metadata…