An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo 2013/07/30　32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage

Background An IAM (integrated assessment model) , which evaluates interactions between energy, the economy, and the environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for long-term, global sustainable development (Weyant 1999). Recently, advanced end-use technologies have received increasing attention as a key component of options for climate change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric technologies include heat-pump water heaters and EVs. A combination of low-carbon power generation (such as renewables, thermal power with CCS, and nuclear) and advanced electric end-use technologies are a promising solution for drastic GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction.

Objectives To develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on a general equilibrium technique (Ramsey’s optimal growth theory) and including advanced end-use technologies such as heat pump water-heater and electric vehicles. Using the model, to analyze the effects of the advanced end use technologies. We conduct on-off analyses of the advanced end-use technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced end use technologies.

BET model Basic-Energy-Economy-Environment-and-Enduse Technology Model (BET). A MERGE-RICE type global model hard-linked with enduse technologies like MARKAL-MACRO. The economic module is an one-sector CES (constant elasticity substitution) type production function. The energy module is a bottom-up type model that describes vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves. The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop. World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10 year-intervals; an NLP model.

Figure The model structure

Table Energy Services In the model

Regions and Energy systems BET 13 regions Region name Region 3 letter USA usa Europe (EU27+3) europe EUR Japan japan JPN Canada, Australia, and New Zealand canz CAZ Other Eurasia oeurasia OEA Russia russia RUS China incl. Hong Kong china CHA India india IND Middle East & N. Africa nafrica MNA Brazil brazil BRA ASEAN & Korea aseank ASK Other Latin America olatam OLA Sub-Sahara Africa safrica SSA

Formulation of production function: Patty -Clay type -function. YN: (patty) production; Yt = (1-ζ) Yt-1 + YNt; ζ is a deplation rate. KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) labor. DN: Energy　services; DN = f(E). Income identity: EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies. Objective function: θ: Negishi weight, df: discount rate..

Basic performance of BET. population Basic performance of BET. GDP TPES

GDP losses (Base case =0%) GHG accumulation targets Off: Advanced End use Techs Are Off; On: On.

Fig Power generation, upper: 2050 lower:2100

Fig Energy services, upper: 2050 lower:2100

Fig Energy services in vehicle services, upper: 450-off Lower: 450-on

Conclusions Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and obtained the following results. (1) Turning off the advanced end-use technologies results in GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent climate policy. The advanced end-use technologies are a way to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent. (2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non-electricity demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using various low-carbon options such as renewables, nuclear , and thermal power with CCS. (3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of electrification and advanced electric end-use technologies is a powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints.