National Workforce Planning Forum 1 st May 2015

Dr David Arnot Health Workforce, SGHSCD August 2014 – 2015 Obstetrician & Gynaecology ST5 (West Scotland Region) General Practitioner (Lothian and Dumfries & Galloway Unscheduled Care Services)

Medical Specialty Profiles Started February 2014 Build on Reshaping Process Modelling:  Annual output = retirements x participation [factor 1.4 or 1.6] + 1% growth  Trainee Establishment = mean required annual output x Programme length

Medical Specialty Profiles Under remit of Shape of Training Transition Group Also supports: Personnel future supply / demand Rota gap management Address current service staffing pressures Workforce components of Sustainability & 7DS Evidence to Migratory Advisory Committee

Profiles Data Sources Trainee – NES: Recruitment & Establishment Fill rates CCT Destinations Expected output (CCT gainers) Consultant – ISD: Consultant WTEs in post & vacancies (published) Consultant DOBs. – Ext. Advisors Office: Competition for Consultant vacancies

Future Projections - example

Profiles: Next Steps Focus on CMT and assess impact on ‘shortage specialties’ Add Foundation and ‘upstream choices’ Test profile data with workforce risk assessments – Anaesthetics – Obstetrics & Gynaecology

Profiles - Next Steps: Add training ‘drift factor’ – % of current trainee establishment LTFT / OOP… Add GP workforce profiles – OOHGP: National OOH Primary Care Review Consolidation – Reporting intervals – Embed within SG / NES

Medical Specialty Profiles Thank you