MODSIM 2015 Modelling Mixed Farming Enterprises using AusFarm Neville Herrmann, Di Mayberry, Zvi Hochman, Neil MacLeod 30 Nov 2015 CSIRO AGRICULTURE

The Challenges Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 2 Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing

The Challenges Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 3 Australian farm survey results 2011–12 to 2013–14 Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Getting the balance right Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 4

High level user interface Comprehensive financial risk analysis Use a biophysical model To support the agricultural industries with a tool to examine risk and strategies for mixed farming … Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 5 Farm4Prophet

Case study farms Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 6 Wheat/sheep areas

Warooka – York Peninsula, SA 2186ha – three soil types Crop rotations, winter cropping -beans, wheat, barley, wheat, pasture -pasture, wheat, barley, pasture, wheat -pasture, wheat, pasture, barley Stubbles grazed, supplements fed Self replacing Dohne Merino flock, trading lamb flock Case study Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 7

Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 8 Flock structure

Requirements  Model crops (APSIM)  Multiple paddocks/soil types, crop rotations  Animals (GrazPlan)  Pastures  Interaction between the above  Growth and production of the above  Produce NRM outcomes Modelling the biophysical system with AusFarm Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 9

AusFarm Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 10

AusFarm – model structure Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 11 Modelling up to three soil types with multiple crops growing on each soil type Supporting up to 11 crop types and four types of pasture in each paddock

The scheduling or management of the farm activities AusFarm Manager component Manager component scripting supports  retrieval of sub-model values  implementation of managerial rules  event triggering  calculation of summary outputs Manager scripts Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 12

Main management scripts Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 13 SCRIPTPURPOSE Constants Configuration – crops, pastures, management criteria 447 RotationsCalculate the cropping phase for the current year 82 LivestockFlock configuration, reproduction, weaning, shearing, selling young or culls, replacement, purchasing trade lambs, feeding, production results 1625 CroppingSowing crops and pastures, weed control, harvest, fertilising, cutting 1065 GrazingMovement between paddocks/feedlots, stubble, pasture 731 SummariesCrop and pasture production, NRM outcomes 1005

Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 14 Initialise the animal flock Compute the expected ewe flock size on the start date based on - survival rate - time of year, purchase age, cull date Determine the gestation state Calculate the periods since key management events - replacement, mating, birth, weaning, sale Add the cohorts of ewe animals Assign the tag groups to the new animals Add the cohorts of male and female weaners Assign tags Animals drafted to suitable pastures

Livestock Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 15

Livestock – identify and assign animal groups Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 16

Livestock – management activities Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 17

Livestock – feeding Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 18 for each supplement used check the supplement store buy if necessary initialise summary values determine the feeding phase based on date for each tag group find the lowest condition score group determine the feed paddock check if the animals require feed if ewes adjust the feeding for females about to be joined else if sale weaners adjust the feeding for weaners being sold at target weight else if trade lambs adjust feeding for target weight adjust supplement, amount and mix required for feedlot/trade feedlot/paddock feed the supplement record the supplement used next group

Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 19 … Using indirection to address sub-models

Animal production – Monthly by age class; numbers, weights, ages, no_shorn, wool, sale numbers, sale weights, supplement fed Crop productivity – Area of each crop, yield, N applied – (total and by soil type) NRMs – Deep drainage, NO3 leaching, Ground cover, Change in soil organic carbon, CO2-equivalents (global warming potential) Outputs from the model Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 20

Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 21 Farm4Prophet High level web application Configure key aspects of the mixed farming system Retains user input and model results

Architecture of the Farm4Prophet system Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 22 Producer/Advisor Farm4Profit server (www) Session DB AusFarm (APSIM) server Soil data, Weather data APSoil, SILO User scenario - Builds scenario - Generates report - Maintains user database Farm specification Production and NRM outputs - Apply scenario to base simulation - Runs simulation model

F4P Outputs Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 23

F4P Outputs Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 24

Provides new insights for growers to help improve productivity and reduce risk Summary Modelling mixed farming enterprises with AusFarm | Neville Herrmann | Page 25 Considerable work is required to build and test a model for a mixed farming system Farm4Prophet brings complex models to a new range of users

Thank you CSIRO Agriculture Neville Herrmann Senior software engineer t e wwww.grazplan.csiro.au CSIRO AGRICULTURE