Gloucestershire Secondary Schools Place Planning Autumn 2014

Secondary School Planning and Development SUPPLY Schools and academies Published Admission Numbers / Capacity What is your PAN? How often in recent years have you admitted on or below this number? Yet we have to use that to assess shortfall. We are held responsible by DfE for knowing the capacity in ALL our schools and have to report that information annually through SCAP return so we need school/academy cooperation for knowledge of sites and ‘real’ capacity Surplus places Working surplus – Audit Commission recommendation of 5-10% surplus. DfE are exploring this issue and talking to LAs about how they operate a surplus. ‘Buffer’ places – in some areas of the county we know will be allocating more places than we actually need. e.g. Pupils in independent schools decide to stay in independent sector. OOC applicants don’t succeed in getting a grammar school place, but we are still obliged to offer them a place. DEMAND Primary school numbers School Census – where are we now? What is coming up from primaries? Historic patterns of transfer - includes those from independent sector and from out of county. Preference data – monitor year on year changes. We can even map these now to be clear where the pupils live. Resident data Annual feed of data from Health that is aggregated by post code and age as at 31 August of that year. This gives us another reference on top of the school roll figures. In some areas, the primary school numbers mask the underlying population distribution. We now monitor this for year on year changes. This is useful in areas of housing growth, but also enables us to see where a housing development lifecycle is progressing. Service families Migration ONS mid-year estimates – produced annually and based on extrapolation of most recent national census. Less important but good cross reference. Generally over-stated. Housing Every housing application comes before us for comment with regard to the associated local education provision. Pupil yield from new housing is estimated following local research that is commissioned every five years. Current estimates are: 15 secondary aged pupils from every 100 qualifying dwellings. We can only respond once and a S106 agreement is fixed at a point in time. Timing of developments can be challenging – start dates are often delayed and then rate of build can be variable. District Core strategies on the horizon - long term plans. Major housing developments are likely to require new primary schools. For secondaries, it is more likely that we would look to expand local provision where possible but we may have to consider new secondary schools in some cases. Demand Supply Children in primary schools Preference data Underlying resident data Housing developments School PAN Surplus Places Funding

Forest of Dean District 22% surplus capacity by 2020 By 2020, supply may exceed demand by 1,263 places. 234 in Year 7

Stroud District 7.6% surplus capacity by 2020 By 2020, supply may exceed demand by 552 places. 153 in Year 7 Surplus capacity at 7.6% by 2020 is well within the recommended surplus. No expansion required but there will be spare places across some schools. Boundary to the North runs close to Severn Vale School, so for some Stroud residents, SV will be the nearest school.

Cotswold District 2.6% surplus capacity by 2020 By 2020, supply may exceed demand by 152 places. 55 in Year 7 Cotswold – uneven balance across two planning areas (north and south). Large numbers crossing the border. There will be some expansion resulting from S106 contributions.

Cheltenham Demand 6% over capacity by 2020 By 2020, demand may exceed supply by 358 places. 125 in Year 7 We know that there are areas of significant housing development in and around Cheltenham District at various stages of progress. We have secured Section106 funding contributions for secondary schools in some cases, but the spare capacity at Pittville, All Saints and historically, Christ’s College, Cheltenham Kingsmead and St Benedict’s has resulted in a number of developments for which we have no developer funding. Many of these planned developments have been slow to progress or even start, but the upward turn in the housing market has resulted in some recent movement with regard to local developments. Of the shortfall of 358 above - We estimate that by 2020/21 there could be over 200 additional secondary pupils, aged 11 -18, from developments for which we have not secured S106 funding. If we add proposed housing to the trend–based forecasts, then by 2017 we expect supply to match demand exactly, similar to the 2014 position which proved difficult to manage. Thereafter, we expect to see a shortfall rising to approximately 120 by 2020. Based on plans that have already been submitted and given planning permission, we have estimated the total number of pupils likely to need a school place should all the housing be built within the identified timescale, offering a ‘worst case scenario’. We have also used local knowledge and further investigation to create a more realistic forecast that includes housing. In conclusion, the shortfall of pupil places across all year groups is likely to be in the region of 40 in 2018, with the potential to rise to over 300 by 2020.

Gloucester Education Planning Area Demand 5% over capacity by 2020 By 2020, demand may exceed supply by 676 places. 216 in Year 7 Extra capacity is needed in Gloucester from 2018 at the latest. This situation is reflected in Tuffley/ Quedgeley with the forecasts showing the pressure being felt at Severn Vale from 2015 – this is born out by the catchment school population data. The pressure is felt at Beaufort in 2019 and 2020 but the Linden population is responsible for some of this.

Tewkesbury Education Planning Area Below 1% surplus capacity by 2020 By 2020, supply and demand could be almost equal. 2 spare places in Year 7 The three schools cover a wide geography and serve specific local communities as well as attracting some pupils from further afield. The distance between the three schools leads us to consider the needs of these communities individually, rather than the planning area as a whole. Will need some action from 2016. Probably because of housing. S106 secured for expansion at Cleeve and in progress for Winchcombe. Looking to the future, the local authority needs to do more than simply address the shortfall in available places. Consideration must be given to building some capacity into the secondary school admission system to enable parental choice in recognition that between 5 and 10% spare capacity is recommended to ensure some flexibility and to facilitate increasing numbers of in-year applications.

Meeting demand Through Admissions Policy Managing Planned Admission Numbers (PAN) Exceeding PAN – impact where there are surplus places

Meeting Demand Through the Capital Programme Funding major projects Basic Need Section 106

Meeting the demand in Gloucester, Tewkesbury & Cheltenham

Gloucester City 2013 Schools in City of Gloucester only (excludes Churchdown, Chosen Hill & Millbrook) Grammars are biggest draw. STR and High School for Girls draw approx 25% of students from Cheltenham, 20% from Tewkesbury, 10% from Forest of Dean Severn Vale & St Peter’s draw approx 20% each from Stroud but just on border

Gloucester City 2013

Case Study from Secondary Allocations 2014 Cheltenham Secondary Schools

Preparation – Sept 2013 899 places 1122 pupils

Allocation – Jan 2014 93 899 places 992 pupils 1122 pupils 230 to other areas + 100 coming in 899 places 992 pupils 93

Allocation – March 2014

Forecasts for Cheltenham, Gloucester & Tewkesbury to 2020 Year Seven intake

Summary Need greater clarity about current supply of places so we can fine tune our estimates Without housing, there is likely to be a shortfall of Year 7 places by 2018 in Gloucester, Cheltenham and Tewkesbury. With housing, this shortfall could emerge in 2017.

Implications Maximise use of existing accommodation before considering expansion Carry out net capacity assessments of all existing accommodation Address the expected shortfall in Cheltenham for year 7 in 2017/18. Increase the number of available Year 7 places in Gloucester by 2017/18. Consider the need in Tewkesbury to increase available places. Carefully plan for increased demand without creating unnecessary surplus places

Meeting the Demand Expand existing schools Establish new schools with approved sponsors

Next Steps: Your views on how we meet demand