Post-compulsory education in England: Choices and implications Sandra McNally Centre for Vocational Education Research, LSE Centre for Economic Performance, LSE University of Surrey

Sources Making a Difference in Education: What the evidence says Robert Cassen, Sandra McNally, Anna Vignoles. Routledge Post-Compulsory Education in England: Choices and Implications Claudia Hupkau, Sandra McNally, Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela and Guglielmo Ventura CVER Discussion paper July

Wider context Relatively low productivity Relatively low social mobility ‘Long tail’ of underachievers Complex system of post-16 education (except for A- levels)

Complexity of post-16 education A complex system of post-16 education. Options outside A- levels often poorly understood and not discussed enough. Consequence is that it is difficult to sign-post students, parents, employers about range of options, quality, progression routes One of our first major projects at CVER has been to follow a cohort of students (who completed GCSEs in 2009/10) as they progressed through the education system.

AgeYearPhase Curriculum stages QualificationsInstitutionsQualificationsInstitutions Post compulsory Tertiary Level 4 & above Higher education institutions Further education colleges Classroom- based Entry level - level 3 Vocational, technical education and remedial education Employer-based Level 2 - Level 6 Apprenticeships and other on-the job education and training Further education colleges Private education providers Other public providers Upper sec Key Stage 5 Level 3 A/AS levels/Applied Generals/Tech Levels Sixth form colleges / Schools Compulsory education* Lower secondary Key Stage 4 Level 2** GCSEs Secondary schools Key Stage Primary Key Stage 2 National tests Primary schools Key Stage 1 Teacher assessments RReception Pre-school settings 0-4 Pre-school Notes:*The leaving age in England where individuals must engage in some form of education or training became 17 in 2013 and 18 in **Level 2 in GCSEs is achieved with grades A*-C

The data We use data from – National Pupil Database for prior attainment (age 11 (KS2) and age 16 (KS4)) – …and for age 18 (KS5) outcomes – Higher Education Statistics Agency for university attendance – Individual Learner Record for further education We create a panel for ages for the cohort of 2010 KS4 completers (turning 16 and taking GCSEs in 2010)

Level 3 and 4+ qualifications Level 4 and above: Bachelor degrees and other vocational qualifications at Level 4 and above Level 3 : A-Levels Applied Generals Tech Levels Key Skills / Functional Skills or NVQs Other Level 3

Level 2 qualifications and below Level 2 Tech Certificate Vocational qualifications at Level 2: – BTECs at level 2 that do not fall under the Tech Certificate category, – NVQs at level 2, – Diplomas, Awards or Certificates at level 2 – and any other qualifications at level 2 that do not fall into any of the aforementioned categories. Key/Functional Skills at Level 2 GCSEs Below Level 2: All those with highest level of learning at L1 and below. Apprenticeships Unknown Not observed

Composition of learners at different ages Cohort undertaking GCSE in 2009/10 (575,000 students) Age 17Age 18Age 19Age 20 Above level Level 3 qualifications Mainly A-Levels Mainly Applied Generals Mainly Tech Levels Mainly KS/NVQ Level Mainly other Level Level 2 qualifications Mainly Tech Certificates Mainly vocational qualifications at level Mainly Key/Functional Skills Level Mainly GCSEs Level 1 and entry level Below level Apprenticeships Apprenticeship Level Apprenticeship Level Apprenticeship Level Unknown qualification Not observed

Activity at age 17: Share achieving 5+ GCSEs at A*-C

Activity at age 17: Share ever eligible for free school meals in each main category

Composition of Learners by activity at age 17 Stay-on Age 18 Level 3 qual by age 20 Commence apprent: age Commence L3 apprent: age Univ. Degree Russell Group other Level 4+ Total Main activity at age 17%%%% Level 3 Any level 3 qualification A-Levels Applied Generals Tech Levels Other Level Level 2 Any level 2 qualification Tech Certificates Vocational qualifications at level Level 1 and entry level Below level Apprenticeship Unknown Not observed Total 507,304386,959118,18746,814192,78143,39523,087574,967

Probability of achieving a Level 3 qualification by age 20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

Probability of starting a university degree by age 20 (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

Probability of starting an apprenticeship between age (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

Probability of starting a L3+ apprenticeship between age (relative to those studying below level 2 at age 17)

Second chances or stuck? Number of years in learning at or below Level 2 Number of consecutive years in learning at or below Level 2 Main activity at age Total number Level 3 Any level 3 qualification ,985 A-Levels ,819 Applied Generals ,956 Tech Levels ,612 Other ,330 Level 2 Any level 2 qualification ,926 Tech Certificates ,312 Vocational at level ,801 Level 1 and entry level Below level ,428 Apprenticeship ,315 Unknown ,552 Not observed ,761 Total ,967

Key findings Current system does not lend itself to an easy categorisation (especially for Level 2 and below) Over half of all students undertaking Level 2 at age 17 do not achieve Level 3 by age 20. Thousands pursue courses at this level for 3 or 4 consecutive years. Profile of those doing an apprenticeship is very different from those on an academic track