Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarNWSNHCRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc. map 2sfc map 3

NHC TROPICAL DEPRESSION Winds of knots (38 mph or less) TROPICAL STORM Winds of knots (39 to 73 mph) HURRICANE Category 1: Winds of knots (74-95 mph) Very dangerous winds will produce some damage Category 2: Winds of knots ( mph) Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage Category 3: Winds of knots ( mph) Devastating damage will occur Category 4: Winds of 114 to 135 knots ( mph) Catastrophic damage will occur Category 5: Winds above 135 knots (157 mph) Catastrophic damage will occur

Center of High and Low pressure Isobars

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarNWSNHCRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3sfc. map 2sfc map 3

Know what to expect! = Climo. PSU … June 22 data RH RL

Basic Forecast Guidelines Climatology Forecast = averages for today Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s valuesyesterday’s values

Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes temperature to change? ◦Cloud cover: ◦Precipitation:  When it rains T’s ….. ◦Wind:  Direction - Speed

Basic Forecast Guidelines What causes rain? ◦Need clouds!  Will any ole cloud do? ◦Moisture  Bodies of water – Moisture content of air

Basic Forecast Guidelines Extrapolation= Look upstream to see what’s coming! ◦Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3Sat IR Sat II Sat VIS Radarsfc. map 1 sfc. map 2sfc map 3

Basic Forecast Guidelines The “Models” ◦What are they? The “Models” ◦Lower Res. (GFS)Lower Res. (GFS) ◦Higher Res. (GFS)Higher Res. (GFS) ◦Higher Res. (NAM)Higher Res. (NAM) ◦Higher Res. (HRRR)Higher Res. (HRRR) ◦MOS - Statistical guidanceMOS - Statistical guidance

Your competition !!! ◦The National Weather ServiceThe National Weather Service ◦The Weather ChannelThe Weather Channel ◦AccuweatherAccuweather ◦The guy or gal to your left and right