CariCOF Climate Outlook April-May-June 2016 and July-August-September 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC 2 CariCOF FCAC

RAINFALL

AMJ RAINFALL O MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ(data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ. 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes:4Initial :468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes:4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! NMMEY modes : 8 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5 Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 430Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 6

JAS RAINFALL 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb(data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 423Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes :5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes:2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 423Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes:2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 427Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 2

CPT probabilistic JAS Rainfall forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 429Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 1 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes:1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 427Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 1

CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016

CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts Nine data sources (incl. GPCs): 1)IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance); 2)UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast; 3)European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts; 4)APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts; 5)WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME. 6)CFSv2 model 7)MétéoFrance Arpège model. 8)JMA model 9)Environment Canada CMC model Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T 2m outlooks (see Appendix). Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise: 1)El Niño has peaked in November 2015 and has weakened to borderline strong near the end of March (Niño 3.4 SST anom. ~1.5°C). Most models suggest a rapidly weakening El Niño, likely disappearing by MJJ 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of El Niño 75-80% for AMJ, with only 10-15% probability for remaining in El Niño by JAS, versus 40-50% for both neutral and La Niña. In the Tropical North Atlantic, which should be warmer than average towards the end of an El Niño, SSTs are above average to the north of the Caribbean Islands. However, temperatures in the southern Caribbean Sea and eastwards in the North Atlantic are near-average due to stronger than average trade winds. Those temperatures are expected to warm somewhat into AMJ. However, around the equator and west of Africa, a cold anomaly will likely manifest. 2)Initially (April), El Niño is expected to sustain increased vertical wind shear and subsidence over the southern and eastern Caribbean, which weakens deep convection. This pattern will fade away swiftly. Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to above-average air moisture in the islands for AMJ and JAS in the north, and for AMJ in the east. However, perhaps because of the cooling in the Atlantic around the equator and west of Africa during JAS, a pattern of drier air may be observed to reach into the Eastern Caribbean. 3)Most global models are suggesting a shift to above-normal rainfall for much of the region in AMJ. By contrast, a shift to below-normal rainfall is expected further in the east during JAS.

Probabilistic AMJ rainfall forecast map

Probabilistic JAS rainfall forecast map

2M MEAN TEMPERATURE

AMJ TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10Moderate ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 1Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 50Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 50Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4

JAS TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5 Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5

MJJ CPT probabilistic MJJ 2m Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 51Stations : 10!Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 49Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 73Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 49Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7

CariCOF Objective Mean T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016

CariCOF Objective Mean T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS

Probabilistic AMJ 2m Temperature forecast map

Probabilistic JAS 2m Temperature forecast map

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2M TEMPERATURE

AMJ MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5 Initial :49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 2 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 37Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 39Stations : 10 ! Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7

JAS MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial :49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10Fair CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 37Stations : 10Moderate CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Max. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5 Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 37Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 37Stations : 10Fair NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3

CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016

CariCOF Objective Maximum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016

Probabilistic AMJ 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

Probabilistic JAS 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

AMJ MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML)

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. AMJ Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). AMJ 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ. AMJ 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over AMJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). AMJ Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over AMJ (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). AMJ 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over AMJ.

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial :49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 6 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10!Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 5Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 6

AMJ CPT probabilistic AMJ 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 7Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7

JAS MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML)

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. JAS Mar 3.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2, Mar initialisation). JAS 4.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS. JAS 5.Predictor is predicted T 2m over the Caribbean over JAS (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library). JAS Mar 6.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JAS (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, Mar initialisation). JAS 7.Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JAS.

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial :49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 3CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8 Used : 39Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 3 Experiment 4CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 3Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! CFSv2Y modes : 8Y modes : 5

JAS CPT probabilistic JAS 2m Min. Temperature forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 5CCA modes: 3CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 4Used : 40Stations : 10 !Very Limited! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3 Experiment 6CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 2Initial : 49Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 7 Experiment 7CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 49Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes :6Used : 38Stations : 10!Limited! NMMEY modes : 8Y modes : 2

CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) April-May-June 2016

CariCOF Objective Minimum T 2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) July-August-September 2016

Probabilistic AMJ 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

Probabilistic JAs 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

DROUGHT OUTLOOK

JFMAMJ DROUGHT OUTLOOK

JFMAMJ CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library). Feb 2.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Feb. MAMA 3.Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over MAMA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).

JFMAMJ CPT probabilistic JFMAMJ Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 4Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 4Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4 Experiment 2CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 1Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 30-0NX modes : 8X modes : 2Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 1 Experiment 3CCA modes: 3 Initial : 468Values : 20Index : W & 35N-5SX modes : 5X modes : 3Used : 428Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ECHAM4.5Y modes : 5Y modes : 3

JJASONDFJMAM DROUGHT OUTLOOK

JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM CCA experiments: Feb 1.Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Feb (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).

JJASONDJFMAM CPT probabilistic JJASONDJFMAM Drought forecast MaximumOptimumNo. of StationsMissing Y dataGoodness Index Experiment 1CCA modes: 5CCA modes: 3Initial : 468Values : 20Index : E-20W & 30N-20SX modes : 8X modes : 6Used : 408Stations : 10 !! Very Limited !! ERSSTv3bY modes : 8Y modes : 4

CariCOF Drought Outlook By the end of June 2016 Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck Participating territories Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

Drought Outlook January to June Drought Outlook January to June Areas under immediate drought concern? Current Outlook Previous Outlook March 2016 Current update (March 2016): Drought concern is noted in Antigua, west- central Belize and from Saint Vincent southward A drought warning is issued for ABC Islands.

RAISE AWARENESS & CONSERVE WATER!! Current Current drought situation (up to the end of February 2016): (more information here)here – Because of below-normal rainfall during 2015, water shortages occur in many portions of the Antilles, notably Barbados, Haïti, St. Lucia and many of the Leewards. – Nearly all island nations are in longer-term drought (except Bahamas; no data for Cuba and Hispaniola). – However, a failure of the secondary wet season in the Guianas has led to short-term drought. Shorter-term Shorter-term (till June 2016): – We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may persist from the ABC Islands eastward to Saint Vincent and southward into the western. Longer-term Longer-term (beyond May 2016): – El Niño has peaked in strength last November and is slowly weakening. – The El Niño results in a drier early part of the year in the Lesser Antilles and a failure of the secondary wet season in the northern Guianas. This leads to drought concerns towards the end of the Caribbean dry season (i.e. May 31). – In the islands, the wet season may start up to one month earlier than usual, when longer-term drought recovery is expected for Barbados, Cayman, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards. – El Niño will possibly be replaced by a La Niña by the end of the year. This evolution should finally bring drought relief to the region, but may tilt the odds towards increased flash flood potential. Drought outlook Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?

Long-term drought outlook Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean dry season (May 31 st, 2016)? February 2016 This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until February 2016, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-0.8 (moderately dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN). Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the dry season (May 31 st ) is a concern across the Antilles (no data available for Cuba, Hispaniola, Martinique), SW Belize and the Guianas. A drought emergency is issued for the ABC Islands and Antigua. A drought warning is issued for the remainder of the Antilles except Dominica, as well as SW Belize. A drought watch is also issued for Cayman, Dominica and the Guianas. Previous Outlook Current Outlook

ALERT LEVELMEANINGACTION LEVEL NO CONCERNNO CONCERN No drought concern monitor resources update and ratify management plans public awareness campaigns upgrade infrastructure DROUGHT WATCHDROUGHT WATCH Drought possible keep updated protect resources and conserve water implement management plans response training monitor and repair infrastructure DROUGHT WARNINGDROUGHT WARNING Drought evolving protect resources conserve and recycle water implement management plans release public service announcements last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades report impacts DROUGHT EMERGENCY Drought of immediate concern release public service announcements implement management and response plans enforce water restrictions and recycling enforce resource protection repair infrastructure report impacts

Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks April to June 2016 Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK 1, Wazita Scott 1, Dr. Simon MASON 2, Ángel MUÑOZ 2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN 2, Dale Destin 3 1 Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA 3 Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

Wet day frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016 USUALLY: Number of wet days is low in April, and usually increases in May and June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Decreasing surface dryness; increasing number of days with disrupted outdoor activities; limited to no recharge of water reservoirs until April.

Wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016 USUALLY: Number of wet spells is very low in April in eastern Caribbean, and increases in most places in May and June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence), more wet & very wet spells (medium to high confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Increasing surface and soil wetness; good recharge of water reservoirs from May to June. AMJ 2015 frequency of 7-day very wet spells AMJ 2016 frequency of 7-day wet spells

USUALLY: Very few extreme wet spells occur in April, with a chance of generally up to 1-2 extreme wet spell in May & June. FORECAST: AMJ rainfall in the Caribbean is likely to be above- to normal across the Caribbean, with more wet days (medium confidence), more wet & very wet spells (medium to high confidence), more extreme wet spells (medium confidence) in the Eastern Caribbean, especially in May and June. IMPLICATION: Limited flash flood potential up until April, but a marked increase from May. MAM 2016 frequency of extreme (top 1%) 3-day wet spells Extreme wet spells frequency shifts Forecast for: April to June 2016

No. of wet days No. of 7-day wet spells (20% wettest) No. of 7-day very wet spells (10% wettest) No. of 3-day extremely wet spells (1% wettest) ClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecastClimatologyForecast Antigua (VC Bird) Aruba (Beatrix) Barbados (CIMH) Barbados (GAIA) Belize (C. Farm) Cayman Cuba (Punta Maisi) Dom. Republic (Las Americas) Dominica (Canefield) Dominica (Douglas Charles) Grenada (MBIA) Guyana_ Guyana (Albion) Guyana (Blairmont) Guyana (Charity) Guyana (Enmore) Guyana (Georgetown) Guyana (New Amsterdam) Guyana (Skeldon) Guyana (Timehri) Guyana_Wales Jamaica (Worthy Park) Martinique (FDF Desaix) Puerto Rico (San Juan) St. Lucia (Hewanorra) St. Maarten (TNCM) St. Vincent (ET Joshua) Suriname (Zanderij) Tobago (ANR Robinson) Trinidad (Piarco) April to June 2016 brown is a decrease in frequency,dark blue an increase, grey none are expected

APPENDIX

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs Caribbean & tropical Atlantic El Niño region

Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update

Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast forecast?time= ,5088, &area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast

NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast

APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast

Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast AMJ 2015 (0.5 month lead) JAS 2016 (3.5 month lead)

IRI – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast

EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast rcile%20summary!1%20month!Tropics!201310!/

ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T 2m forecast forecast?time= ,3624, &area=Tropics&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=tercile%20summary

UK Met Office – probabilistic T 2m forecast

APCC – multi-model probabilistic T 2m forecast

Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T 2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T 2m forecast

Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T 2m forecast MAM 2016 (0.5 month lead) JJA 2016 (3.5 month lead)

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