Institute of Transport Studies AusRAIL 2006 Brisbane 21 ST -22 ND November 2006 Strategic Planning for Australian Urban Passenger Rail Professor Graham Currie Chair of Public Transport, Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University

2 Institute of Transport Studies Agenda 1.Introduction 2.A Strategic Focus? 3.Success or Illusion? 4.Pro-Active Directions

3 Institute of Transport Studies This paper asks new questions about the future directions for Australian urban pax rail (AUPR) The aim is to explore where we are headed in Australian urban passenger rail (AUPR) service and market development Its an exploration of issues aimed at seeking ways forward to good service development and planning Will emphasise new perspectives on AUPR performance

4 Institute of Transport Studies It is structured as follows: Success or Illusion? Pro-Active Directions A Strategic Focus?

5 Institute of Transport Studies Agenda 1.Introduction 2.A Strategic Focus? 3.Success or Illusion? 4.Pro-Active Directions

6 Institute of Transport Studies AUPR doest have a strategic focus about developing the future urban passenger market Australian Urban Passenger Railways Confused Context Freight rail a major driver of policy/planning Infrastructure/Operational Focus Staff – large responsibility Track, Rollingstock, Technology – complex/ substantial capital Contract Management/ Government Relations The Organisational Change ‘Norm’ Staff – large responsibility Re-organisation, outsourcing, regulatory reform The Re-active focus Reliability and Capacity – the outcomes of success? Security – a new responsibility Strategic Focus A pro-active expansionist approach to developing the urban passenger rail market

7 Institute of Transport Studies NOT NEEDED But AUPR is successful - isnt it? Australian Urban Passenger Railways Australian Urban Passenger Railways are Successful! Growing Patronage Service Development Overloading Car Parking Over-Demand Strategic Focus A pro-active expansionist approach to developing the urban passenger rail market

8 Institute of Transport Studies Agenda 1.Introduction 2.A Strategic Focus? 3.Success or Illusion? 4.Pro-Active Directions

9 Institute of Transport Studies GROWING PATRONAGE - AUPR are successful because their markets are growing…. Australian Urban Passenger Railways Source: Bureau of Transport Economics Working Paper 38 cited in ABS (2005) ‘Year Book of Australia’ Urban Rail Passengers in Australia Source: Annual Report Analysis Rail Patronage Increase (%) Growth City

10 Institute of Transport Studies..and are expected to grow into the future Australian Urban Passenger Railways

11 Institute of Transport Studies BUT mode share is low to miniscule… Australian Urban Passenger Railways City Source: ABS 2001 Share of Journey to Work

12 Institute of Transport Studies … and declining Australian Urban Passenger Railways City Source: ABS 2001 Share of Journey to Work

13 Institute of Transport Studies Was patronage growth generated by pro- active industry planning? Australian Urban Passenger Railways External Factors Driving Patronage Growth Population Growth Petrol Price Rises Growth in CBD Activity Urban Traffic Congestion CBD Parking Constraints Growth in Travel

14 Institute of Transport Studies OVERLOADED TRAINS – But the trains are overloaded and capacity is a problem Australian Urban Passenger Railways Evidence of Success?

15 Institute of Transport Studies Overloaded trains are only ~20% of service – counter peak/off peak trains are 70-80% of service Australian Urban Passenger Railways Share of Weekday Trains Share of Weekday Trains (%) Source: Analysis of Nov 2006 Schedules Australasian Urban Railway PT Trips Over the Day - Melbourne Source: DoI 2006 Empty Full

16 Institute of Transport Studies Overall Weekday service capacity is only about half full (or half empty) Australian Urban Passenger Railways Share of Weekday Trains Full/Empty Share of Weekday Trains (%) Note: Assumes peak trains are 95% Full, Counter Peak are 30% Full and Off peak Trains 40% Full Australasian Urban Railway

17 Institute of Transport Studies SERVICE DEVELOPMENT - But AUPR has had considerable service development? Australian Urban Passenger Railways

18 Institute of Transport Studies In practice rail network development has been minor and slow Australian Urban Passenger Railways Total =1,573 Rte Kms 1990 Total =1,573 Rte Kms 1990 AUPR Network Size Source: Kenworthy and Laube, 1999 Rail Expansion Projects e.g. –Joondalup (1992+) = 32km –Sydney Airport (2000) = 10km –Brisbane Airport (1999) = 8.5km –Sydney Homebush (1998) = 5km –Melbourne Sydneham (2001)=4 km Total ~ kms or about 4-5% in 15 years = 33% in 100 years

19 Institute of Transport Studies Although AUPR networks appear extensive Australian Urban Passenger Railways

20 Institute of Transport Studies In practice station walk access catchments cover a miniscule share (~ 5%) of urban development Share of Metropolitan Area Covered by Station Walk Access Source: Analysis of station maps, ABS definition of Metropolitan area boundaries used. Share of Metropolitan Urban development Covered by Rail Station Catchments City

21 Institute of Transport Studies Transit and Car access provide citywide cover for AUPR and about half of ridership Access Mode to Rail Access Mode Share to AURP City Source: TDC (2001) DoI (2005)

22 Institute of Transport Studies But bus transit access in Australia is very poor Source: Melbourne Metropolitan Strategy Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were the the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to In 1996 the Metropolitan strategy team identified that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were the the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access distance of rail services Bus Service Frequency PeakOff Peak AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m PeakOff Peak AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m Bus Service Span Weekday AV. MELBOURNE06:46-18:53 Weekday AV. MELBOURNE06:46-18:53

23 Institute of Transport Studies The bus network on weekdays.. Source: Currie (2003) Weekday Bus Services Source: Currie (2003)

24 Institute of Transport Studies contrasts somewhat with weekends Source: Currie (2003) Sunday Bus Services

25 Institute of Transport Studies New data shows this is a pervasive issue in all Australian cities Service Level Benchmark City Source Population BELOW Benchmark 30 min headway 8:30a.m. to 15:30 800m access distance 30 min headway 8:30a.m. to 15:30 800m access distance Sydney Hurni (2005) 54% 20min pk 60min off peak headway 500m access distance 20min pk 60min off peak headway 500m access distance Perth PTA WA (2005) 29% 30 min headway 5 a.m. to midnight 30 min headway 5 a.m. to midnight Melbourne Cheal (2003) 83% Coverage of Metropolitan Areas WITHOUT ‘Good’ Public Transport Recent Data Suggests This May Be Improving

26 Institute of Transport Studies Car access is significant with substantial investment in station car parking capacity Australian Urban Passenger Rail Source: TDC (2001) DoI (2005) Car Access Share to AUPR City Share of Access to Rail (%) Station Car Parking Capacity Parking Places at Rail Stations City Source: Kenworthy and Laube (2001) ‘UITP Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transportation’ cited in Kenworthy and Newman (undated), p.42 (Melbourne in an International Comparison of Urban Transport Systems); ABS (2001) (Census); Kenworthy et al. (1999), p.650; Department of Planning and Infrastructure, GWA (1988),p.43, (Better Public Transport: A 10 Year Plan ( ) Over 50K spaces At AUPR Stations = about 1km 2 of Urban Australia Or the size of Melbourne CBD

27 Institute of Transport Studies But parking is counter-active to the walk on catchment and can kill TOD PNR and TOD 57% of US rail TOD’s identified PNR as a negative factor affecting TOD performance – issue is need for large parking lots, road capacity for cars and poor walk environment

28 Institute of Transport Studies Overall AUPR success factors have limitations and challenges Australian Urban Passenger Railways are Successful! Growing Patronage Service Development Overloading Car Parking Over-Demand Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Limitations and Challenges

29 Institute of Transport Studies Agenda 1.Introduction 2.A Strategic Focus? 3.Success or Illusion? 4.Pro-Active Directions

30 Institute of Transport Studies A pro-active approach to AUPR network development is needed Limitations and Challenges Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Pro-Active Approach to Rail Network Development - Cheap Line Extensions on the Urban Fringe Perform Poorly - Concentrate on Network Integrity and Development in High Density

31 Institute of Transport Studies Focus here… Australian Urban Passenger Railways

32 Institute of Transport Studies Not here. Australian Urban Passenger Railways

33 Institute of Transport Studies We have focussed on only one side of the capacity problem – we need to fill empty trains Limitations and Challenges Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Pro-Active Approach to Filling Unused Capacity - Off Peak Strategies including Pricing - Adopting a Counter Peak Demand Generation Strategy

34 Institute of Transport Studies Don’t only concentrate here… Australian Urban Passenger Railways PT Trips Over the Day - Melbourne Source: DoI 2006 Empty Full

35 Institute of Transport Studies …also focus here… Australian Urban Passenger Railways PT Trips Over the Day - Melbourne Source: DoI 2006 Empty Full

36 Institute of Transport Studies We need to fill the bus network ‘hole’ to create a Metro wide AUPR market… Limitations and Challenges Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Pro-Active Approach to Increasing AUPR Urban Coverage - Substantial Investment in New Bus Services - Tackle the Bus –Rail Coordination Problem

37 Institute of Transport Studies … by increasing bus service levels and service spans to create a city catchment for AUPR Weekday Bus Services Source: Currie (2003) Sunday Bus Services Bus Service Frequency PeakOff Peak AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m PeakOff Peak AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m Bus Service Span Weekday AV. MELBOURNE06:46-18:53 Weekday AV. MELBOURNE06:46-18:53

38 Institute of Transport Studies We should be weaning ourselves off car access and converting parking to TOD.. Limitations and Challenges Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Pro-Active Approach to Increasing AUPR Sustainability - Convert car parking to TOD Development - Coordinate a program of this kind With a plan to provide Alternative access modes

39 Institute of Transport Studies..and using railway land to its maximum long term potential Transit Oriented Development

40 Institute of Transport Studies Summary of Alternative Pro-Active Approaches to AUPR Service Development Limitations and Challenges Low (5%ish) /Declining Mode Share External Factors Driving Patronage Only 20% weekday at capacity Weekday Trains 50% full/empty Minor Service Development (4-5% in 15 years = 33% in a century) Miniscule Urban Walk Catchment Cover (4%) Virtually No/or Poor Bus Network Cover PNR expensive in land/ infrastructure PNR Kills Walk on/TOD Opportunity Pro-Active Approach to Rail Network Development Cheap Line Extensions on the Urban Fringe Perform Poorly Concentrate on Network Integrity and High Density Pro-Active Approach to Filling Unused Capacity Off Peak Strategies including Pricing Adopting a Counter Peak Demand Generation Strategy Pro-Active Approach to Increasing AUPR Urban Coverage Substantial Investment in New Bus Services Tackle the Bus –Rail Coordination Problem Pro-Active Approach to Increasing AUPR Sustainability Convert car parking to TOD Development Coordinate a program of this kind with a plan to provide alternative access modes Summary of Alternative Directions