Kenya’s INDC: Actions in the Forestry Sector INDC Sector Meeting Forestry Sector 6 th May 2016 StARCK+ Technical Assistance Component

Kenya’s INDC  Mitigation - 30% emissions reductions by 2030 from BAU scenario. Based on Kenya’s NCCAP  Adaptation - enhanced resilience to climate change towards the attainment of Vision Based on Kenya’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP)  Subject to international support in the form of finance, investment, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.

Mitigation Contribution The Second National Communication determined that Kenya’s projected emissions for 2030 are 143 MTCO 2 e. Kenya has potential to reduce projected emissions by 86 MTCO 2 e. The INDC mitigation target is half this potential or 43 MTCO 2 e. Source: Government of Kenya (2015), Second National Communication, page 172. Composite abatement potential for all sectors for Kenya (technical potential) in MTCO 2 eq

Mitigation Contribution The

Overview Mitigation Baseline Emission Projections INDC Target for the Forestry Sector Mitigation Options in the SNC Key Mitigation Options Adaptation Discussion Questions

LULUCF The LULUCF Sector includes estimates of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases associated with increases or decreases of carbon in living biomass as land-use changes occur over time, for example, in the conversion of a forest area to cropland, or when establishing new forest lands through reforestation or afforestation Modelling of LULUCF Sector used a State and Transition Simulation model called ST-Sim IPCC Guidelines applied to include above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil organic matter and the atmosphere.

Baseline Emissions Projection The forestry sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases. Key sources of GHG emissions include deforestation forest degradation Approximately 55,000 hectares of woodlands and bushlands is converted to other land uses each year through activities such as Forest clearing for agriculture Illegal logging Unsustainable charcoal production Decomposition of organic waste produces methane

Breakdown of LULUCF Baseline GHG Net Emissions (MtCO2e) LULUCF Sub- Sector LULUCF Baseline GHG Net Emissions (MtCO2e) Forest Land Cropland Grassland Wetlands0.0 Settlements TOTAL

Assumptions Emission / Removal Category MetricAssumptionNotes Conversion of Forest Land to Farm lands Ha converted per year between 1990 and 2010 Reduced by 50% between 2010 and 2030 Increased protection and forest management under the Forest Management Act? is expected to reduce the rate of deforestation. A 50% reduction is projected from existing measures in place. Conversion of Settlement to Farm lands Ha converted per year between 1990 and 2010 Reduction to zeroNo settlement land is expected to be converted to farmlands between 2010 and Conversion of Plantation to Farmlands Ha converted per year between 1990 and 2010 Loss of 300 hectatres per year (1990 to 2010) to Increase of ~3,000 ha per year Trend in historical data between 2010 and 2013 indicates an increase in the size of plantations of approximately 3,000 ha per year. Woodfuel Removal Tonnes of wood (dm) +0.84% increase per year Woodfuel supply is constrained in some markets and future demand is based on an Analysis of Demand and Supply of Wood Products in Kenya. (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2013). Charcoal Production Tonnes of charcoal+1.3% increase per year Charcoal supply is constrained in some markets and future demand is based on an Analysis of Demand and Supply of Wood Products in Kenya. (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2013). Commercial harvest Tonnes of wood (dm) 1.9% increase per year Projections of commercial harvest (Poles and posts, paper and paper board and industrial wood) are based on an Analysis of Demand and Supply of Wood Products in Kenya. (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2013) and Kenya Forestry Assessment Report (Mbugua, D., 2006) Forest FireArea of Forest Land burned (ha) unchangedHistorical forest fire activity is highly variable, but the average was 9,000 ha per year between 1980 and While impacts of climate change may affect the frequency of forest fires there is no available information to indicate a new trend between 2010 and 2030.

Baseline Emissions Projection Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions currently account for approximately 33% of total national emissions. Contribution to decrease to 16% by 2030 as the rate of current deforestation in the baseline is projected to slow down due to existing government actions. Decline from 26 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e) in 2015 to 22 MtCO 2 e in 2030

Comparison of 2030 Baseline Emissions and INDC Target Emission Reductions (MtCO 2 e) Identifies a reasonable 2030 target for emission reductions in the forestry sector and bounds this target with a low and high range that could be reasonably expected to achieve the overall 30% INDC emission reduction target. Illustrates a target emission reduction of 20.1 MtCO2e for the LULUCF sector. This is equivalent to a 91% reduction in 2030 baseline energy emissions. The target is so high because of the unique position of the sector to create net sinks of carbon. 91%55%109%

Mitigation Options in the SNC Total potential emission reduction: 40.2 MtCO2 per year by 2030 INDC target is 50% of the potential

Mitigation Options in the SNC Based on the SNC analysis and the 20.1 MtCO 2 e INDC target for emission reductions in 2030 (see previous slide): the restoration of forests on degraded lands is the mitigation option with the greatest potential. Complemented by actions that seek to limit or reduce deforestation and forest degradation (e.g., protection and conservation actions including limiting or prohibiting access to forests, community management programmes and preventing disturbances through enforcement and monitoring Restoration of degraded forests Agro-forestry (tackled under the agricultural sector)

Mitigation Technologies in the SNC SectorMitigation OptionKey Technologies Required LULUCF Reducing deforestation and forest degradation National Forest inventory, public awareness campaigns, extension services, pilot projects, MRV programmes, supporting policy programmes for regulatory mandate of national forest cover target Reforestation of degraded forests Tree nurseries and production of tree seedlings, pilot projects, MRV programmes, research into appropriate tree species selection, site preparation, planting and tending of saplings. Restoration of forests on degraded lands Pilot projects, extension services, MRV programmes, research into degraded lands and appropriate conservation techniques, protection from animal grazing, wood harvesting and wildfires, community management programmes, forest protection enforcement.

Adaptation Kenya’s INDC emphasizes adaptation and identified priority actions drawing on the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). Adaptation guiding principle is the mainstreaming of climate change into sectoral planning The overall sector’s aim of increasing forest cover to 10% of land area will have strong adaptation benefits and help to increase climate resilience Efforts to maintain and increase forest cover could help to offset anticipated climate induced changes in biomass availability for energy needs

Adaptation Forests also act as water catchments, which are critical for sustaining water availability for various uses (hydro-electric power generation, agriculture, industrial and domestic consumption, etc) Forest cover can also help abate flooding and landslides, which are climate-related hazards in Kenya

Priority Adaptation Actions in the Forestry Sector Short Term Sub-actions  Improve public outreach on environmental issues.  Enhance participatory scenario planning with communities.  Undertake climate vulnerability and risk assessments on ecosystems and provide guidance on relevant adaptation actions.  Develop a forestry adaptation strategy.  Strengthen tree-planting and conservation initiatives. Long Term Sub-Actions  Provide guidance and improve access to climate resilient tree species and cultivars.  Integrate ecosystem and community based approaches in sector strategies in support of adaptation to reduce natural resource based conflicts.  Continue the rehabilitation of water catchment areas in order to provide sustainable ecosystem services.

Discussion Does the INDC analysis reflect the current action and planning in the energy sector? Does the BAU scenario closely represent reality as of now or is some adjustment necessary? How does the energy sector plan to reach the INDC target? What are the barriers and opportunities to deeper emission reductions in the energy sector? How does the energy engage with and create ownership of actions with stakeholders, other government departments and county governments?