Feedback from CEM Assessments: Individual Pupil Records & Predictions Belfast, March 6 th 2013 Neil Defty Business & Development Manager CEM

To inform professional judgement To start a conversation Baseline Assessment Data

USING BASELINE DATA FOR TEACHING AND LEARNING IF FEEDBACK DATA IS TO BE TRUSTED THEN PROBABLY: The students understood the purpose of the assessments And each student did their best at the time……. As a year group, how able are they? What strengths and weaknesses does the group have? How did each student perform?

Bands, percentiles, standardised scores… Standardised scores D C B A Percentiles: 2575

Alis: year 12 students, two baseline profiles for the same school Nationally, 25% in each band

Band Profile Graph: all MidYIS cohort Checking this graph each year will give you an immediate overview of your intake. A school with a ‘completely average’ intake would have 25% of pupils within each band. Band DBand A

Band D

On another day, with 95% certainty, the score of (+/- 1.1 x 2) would not be higher than = would not be lower than – 2.2 = 98.4

(See for report: “Using MidYIS Individual Pupil Records to Inform Teaching and Learning”) To start a conversation Individual Pupil Records (IPRs)

INSIGHT Pupil IPR

IPRs in KS3 Levels NATIONAL AVERAGE

The code: j: reduces size k: infills m: inverts

“Predictions”

BASELINE SCORE GRADE * ** *** ******************* * ** *** ******************************** * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * * ** *********** ** * How is a ‘prediction’ generated? C A* A B

3 key points are: The higher the baseline score the higher the final grade Any one grade is achievable from a range of baseline scores From any baseline score, a range of grades are possible

BASELINE SCORE GRADE * ** *** ******************* * ** *** ******************************** * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * * ** *********** ** * Subject National trend line (regression line) How is a ‘prediction’ generated? 50% on or above the trend line 50% on or below the trend line ‘PREDICTION’ (expected grade) C A* A B

‘Predictions’…...are based on Average performance by similar pupils in past examinations The problem with the word ‘prediction’ is…? An alternative is ‘expected’ grade

Predictions 4 points = D 6.6 points = A/B Trend line

FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE RELIABILITY OF PREDICTIONS: Knowledge of student Parental support/home life Peer influences/social life Student attitude, interest, language Expectations of staff Department/institution ethos Resources Quality of teaching and learning: pace of lessons Understanding how children learn……… And the reliability of the predictions......

29 Correlation = 1 Result

Correlation = 0 Correlation = 0.7

The graph below shows the middle 2/3 of some subject trend lines

Prediction/expected grade: 5.1 grade C Most likely grade

Not a label for life...just another piece of information The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade Chances graphs show what can be achieved: –By students of similar ability –By students with lower baseline scores

to place school at 75 th percentile of value added results

Or insert own values and click Adjust

Prediction/expected grade: 6.4 grade A/B Most likely grade