Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon1 Current US Energy Policy Whitehouse says just do more drilling for oil & gas

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon2 The Era of Cheap Energy is Over Environmental concerns: mercury, CO 2 Rising cost of extraction: –Deep oceans, arctic –Low quality hydrocabons (oil sands, heavy oil, coal to liquids, oil shale) –Hostile or unstable nations

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon3

4 Vehicles in the USA 1.17 cars per licensed driver In 2003

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon5 New Vehicle Fuel Economy, How much should we raise CAFÉ?

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon6 National Security Issues Why are we sending $300 billion per year to Iran, Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, etc.? Lenin: “The capitalists are so hungry for profits that they will sell us the rope to hang them with.” …and they will send us the money to buy the rope!

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon7 Conservation Without Pain Improve car fuel economy 50% by hybrids & new diesels Improve building efficiency by 80% Improve lighting, AC, etc. by 50% With no perceptible drop in quality & some improvements Why don’t we do it? Energy is too cheap! – the hidden cost is much higher

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon8 One Solution: Plug-in Hybrids USA uses 140 billion gallons of gas/ year Equivalent to 200 billion gallons of ethanol Hybrid raises fuel economy from 24 to 32 miles/gal => 150 billion gal/yr of ethanol Average trips10 miles, 40 miles/car/day 20 mile battery charge from plug saves 2/3 of gasoline: need 50 billion gal/yr Ethanol from grasses & trees can supply it Plug hybrid costs $5-9,000 more - Need a $80/bbl floor on oil to attract buyers

Lester Lave Carnegie Mellon9 What is Sensible Policy? Is 1.1 cars per licensed driver enough? 2002 BTU/GDP BTU/pop GDP/pop Denmark USA Austria France Sweden