ACT / LWF / WCC November 30 th, Paris COP 21 BRIEFING

2  Introduction  The Paris outcome package  The landscape of key actors  Possible scenarios to achieve a deal  Our main asks  Beyond Paris Agenda

Framework conditions for global agreement improved since Copenhagen 3 More & uncontested scientific clarity (5 th AR) Climate consciousness More evidence of climate risks and damages More positive narrative on climate action Boom of renewable energies: PV 80% cheaper & 40% more efficient than in 2009 Main emitters want a deal (U.S./China) Green paradigm shift in society & business world has started and is ahead of politics Alternatives Political will

Climate talks have already made a huge difference 4

Greenhouse gas mitigation and low carbon development – Distribution of Global Emissions (2013) 1.China (25%), 2.U.S. (18%), 3.EU (13%) 4.India 5.Russia 6.Indonesia 7.Brazil 8.Japan 5

6 Greenhouse gas mitigation and low carbon development – Cumulative Emissions ( )

COP 21 Challenges countries have presented their INDCs Accounting for >97% of global emissions Implementation reduces global warming to <3°C instead of 4.7°C in a business as usual scenario Paris to deliver mechanism to close remaining emission gap to 1.5/2°C in a fair way Developing countries need financial support to switch to low carbon climate resilient development 4. 5.

The Paris Outcome Package 8 Pre 2020Support Details Post 2020 Agreement COP Decisions Action Agenda Finance Package

The Paris Agreement - Key Elements of an ambitious & fair outcome 9 Longterm Goal Ambition Mechanism Resilie nce Finance Transpare ncy

The Paris Agreement – Long term goal 10 Translate temperature limit into a goal of „carbon neutrality“„decarbonisation“, „phase out emissions“ Provide time horizon to send a clear signal to investors: „mid of the century“, not delaying deadline to 2100 Additional components: Peak year of global emissions, support & finance national transformational strategies Operationalize climate resilience through national adaptation plans and provision of international support One goal but different ways and speeds, in view of different national circumstances and responsibilities 4. 5.

The Paris Agreement – Ambition Mechanism to Give Teeth to the Long Term Goal Ambition Mechanism essential to ensure achievement of long term goal and closure of emission & risk gap: All Parties to undertake review of progress every five years individually and collectively (mitigation, adaptation, finance) All parties to dynamically increase their ambition every five years in view of the remaining gaps/the trajectory to the goal Starting the review in 2018/2019 to revise and strengthen their 2030 targets Avoid a one off deal and vague language such as “resubmit/revisit” without guarantee that parties increase ambition !

The Paris Agreement – Transparency and accountability of action  Rules and Accounting is pre-condition for transparency and trust in the fulfillment of national commitments  This requires a set of common measurement and reporting principles, indicators and procedures.  In order to achieve this common framework, a transition period for developing countries will be required in order to transition to a common framework.  This requires the provision of financial and capacity building support to build Measurement Reporting and Verification (MRV) capacity.  Verification, i.e. compliance components and assessments is a controversial issue. A facilitative compliance/ implementation committee to review and verify implementation is essential 12 !

The Paris Agreement) – Climate resilience (i.e. adaptation and loss & damage) 13 Debate less controversial but also less mature Adaptation Loss & Damage Developed countries’ proposals too vague Include adaptation in review and ratchet up Secure floor quota of finance for adaptation Accept L&D as an issue and a common responsibility Anchor WIM in Agreement and foster the Ex Com

Nationally Determined Contributions – (I)NDCs (1 of 2) countries, > 95% of world population Who? Covering >97% of global emissions 78% of all energy investments by 2030 go in RE > 100 countries include adaptation in INDCs (I)NDCs will not be part of the core agreement To anchor NDCs, agreement shall include obligation to prepare, communicate & implement climate action Impact Challenge

The Finance Package  Provide poor & vulnerable countries with the support to make the shift to low carbon climate resilient development  Secure that 50% of public climate finance goes in adaptation and particularly to LDCs/SIDS  Benchmark: Industrialized countries to fulfill the $ 100 bn pledge of Copenhagen  Conceptual clarity on post-2020 climate finance architecture ($ 100 bn as floor, firewall issue, review, compatability of climate finance with long-term goal etc.)  Shifting the trillions from fossils into renewables 15

Lima - Paris Action Agenda 16 Take and show-case immediate concrete action Cover all sectors of low carbon resilient development Cover all actors (governments, cities, business…)

The Draft Agreement  The negotiation text is too long (54 pages) and full of brackets and opposing proposals 17 Article 3 (MITIGATION) 1. Option 1: Parties aim [to achieve the global temperature goal], in accordance with the best available science [and the principles of the Convention], through [long-term global [low- [carbon][emission] transformation] [[climate][carbon] neutrality]], [and the peaking of their [net] emissions]

CBDR as a crunch issue  Fair burden, risk and opportunity sharing as condition for a fair agreement – CBDR needs a fresh look 18 “Parties should protect the climate system... on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Art 3.1)

Possible scenarios for the Paris outcome – Party driven or G2? 19 Heads of State to set the tone Week ADP co-chairs to negotiate the text party-driven ADP chairs hand over to COP Presidency Parties to solve crunch issues guided by Presidency Key players to make the deal guided by Presidency Plenary to approve the deal Week 2 Endgame

Weak Deal Moderate Deal Strong Deal Deep Cooperation INDCs only Possible Paris Negotiation Scenarios

Landscape of Parties towards a Deal 21 AILACAfricaLDCsAOSISEU Ambitious Deal India OPEC ALBA U.S.A. Umbrella China RSA Russia

In a nutshell – Our Key Asks A long-term goal of climate resilient decarbonization by mid century (one ambitious vision for all) Mechanism of periodic review and dynamic ratchet up to close the emission gap and the climate risk gap Robust transparency and accountability rules similar for all to provide trust and fairness Secured climate finance of at least $ 100bn per year to support the vulnerable and to bring climate justice Climate resilience and loss & damage anchored in the agreement as common responsibility

 What matters most is not the details in the agreement, but the impacts on the world  Paris is the agreement & the resulting political & economic momentum built up  The interpretation of the outcome to become the key battleground 23 How can Paris really make a difference for the future?