Silver Market Trends and Price Outlook Philip Newman 13 th India International Gold Convention, Agra 13 th August 2016

2016: Over 40% year-to-date gains Source: Bloomberg

Global supply: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus

Global demand: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus.

Dramatic rise in both silver and gold ETFs this year Source: Bloomberg

Rising investment demand in Comex silver futures Source: Bloomberg

Silver price forecast: 2016, $17.30, +10% year-on-year Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

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Record high mine production of 27,408t in 2015 Source: Metals Focus China, 3,505t, -6% Australia, 1,373t, -26% Russia, 1,583t +10% India, 374t, +43% US, 1,090t -18% Canada, 369t -22% Mexico 5,824t, +1% Peru, 4,102t +9% Argentina, 1,084t +20% Sweden, 494t +25%

Scrap supply: Major drop in recent years Source: Metals Focus

OUTSTANDING INVESTMENT GRADE SOVEREIGN BOND DISTRIBUTION BY REAL YIELD* *As of 23/05/16: Sovereign Debt from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Euro Area (investment grade), Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA (nominal rates adjusted by respective CPI inflation rates) Source: WGC Interest rates on investment grade government debt have collapsed, much of it now with negative yields in real terms

Source: Metals Focus Mine production: , +3,655t, average 2.5% p.a.

Global demand, 2015 Source: Metals Focus

India bullion imports – record high in 2015, 7,500t Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce : Total imports: 20,000t

Jewellery demand: Changes forecast for 2016 * Europe & North America Source: Metals Focus

Mine production by primary source metal Breakdown of mine production in 2015Year-on-year change in 2015, tonnes

Global supply, 2015 Source: Metals Focus

Industrial demand: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus

Industrial Demand F Source: Metals Focus, IMF

Silver Fabrication Demand F Source: Metals Focus

Physical investment: Changes forecast for 2016 Source: Metals Focus

Expectations of US Fed tightening have fallen this year * A proxy for interest rate expectations in 1-year Source: Bloomberg

Silver price versus US dollar index Source: Bloomberg