Census Transformation: progress in New Zealand ONS Beyond 2011 Research Conference, May 2014

Population: four and a half million Overseas born: one quarter NZ-born in Australia:half a million Moved last 5 (7) years: half Travel journeys annual: five million NEW ZEALAND

Ethnicity NZ European: 74% Maori:15% Asian: 12% Pacific peoples: 7% Maori Treaty of Waitangi ethnicity, Descent, Iwi

NZ public service environment Better Public Services; Govt ICT Strategy 2017 Outcomes focus (targets) Collaborative cross govt agencies Efficient public service RealMe – online identity verification online transactions with govt: target 70% ‘Information as an Asset ‘ Analysis for Outcomes and IDI – Integrated Data Infrastructure

Drivers for change Increasing cost of census Including more difficult to get responses Opportunities from new technologies Availability of administrative data

Census Transformation strategy Short-term: Modernise the current census model and make it more efficient Long-term: Investigate alternative ways of producing small area population and socio-economic statistics. Includes different frequencies for census (5 or 10 yearly) and exploring the feasibility of a census based on administrative data.

Census transformation approach Iterative and phased, with decision points for govt Build a strong evidence base: Users: what is essential? Legal and policy questions Technical investigations Develop and revise: options and assessment criteria

Timeframes March 2012: Strategy agreed with government Feb 2014: First progress report to govt Oct 2015: Recommend preferred future direction for further development March 2018: next census

+National address register +Suitable admin sources - high coverage - current address - ethnicity, Māori descent +Accurate linking +Legislation +Public acceptability +Admin/stats address list +Admin for quality +Flexible systems built +National address register +No paper forms - internet - CATI - CAPI +RealMe +Standard admin vars Online census Fully Online Census Admin + Survey Register -based +National address register +Population Register +Person ID +Mandatory address change Stats NZ relation to administrative systems Opportunist Right to direct Influence Pathway to Future

Comparison with Beyond 2011 Parallel programmes – current census continuing until alternative can be ‘proven’ Tied in with budget bid for next census – show connections with future censuses Key users aware, but low political and public profile Small budget : 4-6 FTE

Options for future censuses NZ Population Register and unique identifier Single admin source for statistical population list Linked admin sources for statistical population list Aggregate statistical model Commercial and social media ‘big data’ NZ Population Register and unique identifier Single admin source for statistical population list Linked admin sources for statistical population list Aggregate statistical model Commercial and social media ‘big data’ Administrative-based census options EXISTING NEW Five-yearly census Ten-yearly census Ten-yearly short-form census with large-scale annual survey Five-yearly census Ten-yearly census Ten-yearly short-form census with large-scale annual survey Survey-based census options MODERNISED 11

What we have learnt about using administrative data for census Administrative data cannot replace the census at present, but worth pursuing investigations. Use linked administrative sources Promising results for population counts (from IDI) Attributes limited potential

13 Fewer than half of the 39 census topics considered are likely or possibly able to be satisfied with current administrative sources.

14 Linked data source (IDI tax, education, migration) National coverage, June 2010

Subnational coverage, June 2010: Poor coverage at TA level, some areas <75% of ERP Poor quality address data: Addresses that can’t be geocoded Out of date addresses Non-residential addresses 15

Next steps Link 2013 Census to IDI – test and refine rules for constructing resident population Methodologies – coverage survey and population estimation User needs How good do population estimates need to be? What is essential for Maori? What is essential for small areas Legal – Electoral system and census Policy – working across government The public – acceptability of admin solutions

Final thoughts The future will look different, so will census – we don’t know how, yet Census, administrative data, and government are integrated and inter-dependent systems What happens in the UK affects us too