Mathematical modeling of Far East economic space Far Eastern Economic Development Center Vladivostok Abramov A.L., Velichko A.S., Davydov D.V., Dostovalov V.N. © FEEDCenter

Main directions of research © FEEDCenter  Allocation of basic types and groups of economic agents on the Far East of Russia: agglomeration approach  The analysis of interaction of the basic agglomerations of the Far East of Russia on the basis of modeling equilibrium flows of goods  Spatial analysis, geographical concentration and specialization of agglomerations of the Far East

Concept for economic space  The subject of economic development is not obliged to coincide with administrative-territorial borders  Mathematical methods are necessary to – specify the allocation of agents of territory – analyze interaction of agents of territory  New categories and "variables" of economic space are necessary © FEEDCenter

Centers of economic activities in modern regional economy: city agglomerations  Definition of agglomerations in regional economics  Economic development goes mainly in cities, rural areas are "subordinates"  Modeling spatial interaction of Far East Regions, in particular, we bring a focus to two city agglomerations: Vladivostok and Khabarovsk. This choice is made by regional statistics and results of modeling of equilibrium flows of goods on Far East © FEEDCenter

The basic statistics of Far East regions 2002,2003 © FEEDCenter  Primorsky and Khabarovsky krai made the great contribution to economy of Far East GDP (2002) Retail turnover (2003) Population (2003)

© FEEDCenter Modeling the interaction of regions on Far East  Mathematical statement of a problem Find optimal flows corresponding to the most probable flows in economic system

Modeling of interaction of regions on Far East  Main conclusions from previous research –The structure of economy is non-uniform, more likely orientation to a foreign market, instead of import-substitution development –cluster "South" of Primorsky, Khabarovsk krai, Sakhalin, Amur regions, the Jewish autonomous region –cluster "North" includes Yakutia, Kamchatka and Magadan area © FEEDCenter

Clusters of Far East economy Cluster "SOUTH" Cluster "NORTH" © FEEDCenter

Models of spatial interaction  «Macro»-approach on the basis of calculations of equilibrium flows of goods with Leontief-Strout equations  «Micro»-approach on the basis of the spatial analysis of industries output of territories © FEEDCenter

Modeling of interaction of Vladivostok and Khabarovsk agglomerations  We assume that all the goods and resources of Primorsky and Khabarovsk krai are concentrated in the Vladivostok and Khabarovsk agglomerations  MAIN QUESTION: how remoteness of agglomerations influences their interaction?  We reduce "distance" between Vladivostok and Khabarovsk: two interpretations –Improvement of an infrastructure and reduction of "time of availability" –Reduction of cost of transportation © FEEDCenter

Hierarchy of the equilibrium aggregated flows (initial condition) © FEEDCenter  Primorsky and Khabarovsky krai belong to cluster "South" Level of coherence High Chukot. aut. reg. Kamchatka Yakutia Magadan reg. Primorsky krai Amursk. reg. Sakhalin Jewish aut.reg. Khabarov. krai Low

Results of modeling  Reduction of "distance" in 3 times –Clusters structure is stable (but with different interactions within) –Khabarovsky and Primorsky krai become most strongly connected, the factor of connectivity between them increases in 2,17 times –For other regions level of interaction changes from 0,9 up to 1,25 © FEEDCenter

Yakutia Chukotka Kamchatka Magadan reg. Sakhalin reg. Amursk. reg. Jewish aut. reg. Khabar. krai Primorsky krai Low Hierarchy of equilibrium aggregated flows (reduction of distance in 3 times) © FEEDCenter  The strongest connection between Primorsky and Khabarovsky krai Level of coherence High

Results of modeling  Reduction of "distance" in 3 times  Level of coherence of regions © FEEDCenter Vladivostok Khabarovsk South- Сахалинск Blagoveshchensk Birobidzhan Yakutsk Petropavlovsk- Kamchatka Anadyr Magadan

Results of modeling  Reduction of "distance" in 2 times –Clusters structure is stable (but with different interactions within) –Level of coherence between Khabarovsk and Primorsky krai increases in 1,8 times –For other regions force of interaction changes from 0,9 up to 1,15 times © FEEDCenter

Results of modeling  Reduction of "distance" in 2 times  Level of coherence of regions © FEEDCenter Vladivostok Khabarovsk South- Сахалинск Blagoveshchensk Birobidzhan Yakutsk Petropavlovsk- Kamchatka Anadyr Magadan

«Micro»-approach: the spatial analysis  Allocation of agglomerations at a level of Primorsky krai  We investigate structure of industries in a territorially-administrative division  Possible reasons of existence agglomeration: –substitutability of resources –complementarity of resources –complementarity of final consumption products © FEEDCenter

Matrix of correlations (fragment 1) ArtemVladivostokNakhodka Artem10,9280,912 Vladivostok0,92810,926 Nakhodka0,9120,9261 © FEEDCenter

Vladivostok agglomeration © FEEDCenter

Matrix of correlations (fragment 2) Nadeshd. Khank. terr. Shkotovo Nadezhd.10,9160,932 0,91610,975 Shkotovo0,9320,9751 © FEEDCenter

“Rural lands” cluster © FEEDCenter

Matrix of correlations (fragment 3) Dalnere ch. terr. Kavalero vo Krasnoarm. terr. Terney Dalnerech. terr. 10,8720,9690,897 Kavalerovo0,87210,7880,71 Krasnoarm. terr. 0,9690,78810,961 Terney0,8970,710,9611 © FEEDCenter

Areas of export specialization (wood) © FEEDCenter

Main conclusions  Main subjects of economic space are agglomerations  Two main agglomerations as a result of modeling of economic space on Far East: Vladivostok and Khabarovsk  Change of parameters of economic space leads to redistribution of coherence of territories. In particular, reduction of "distance" between Vladivostok and Khabarovsk agglomerations in 3 times leads to increase in volumes of flows in 2,17 times  The spatial analysis allows to allocate structure of Vladivostok agglomeration © FEEDCenter