e-Commerce, e-Business, e-Education: Change is the Only Constant Professor J C Taylor, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland, Australia

1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t.

The Big Picture a powerful medium for communication becoming a powerful medium for commerce becoming a powerful medium for entertainment a powerful medium for education is inexorable The Internet is:

The New Economy The Internet is unleashing a whole series of disruptive forces: technological, commercial and social. If not a revolution, it is an e-volution on fast forward

With the arrival of the Information Age, international and institutional boundaries are likely to become increasingly irrelevant. The Big Picture

Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

Technological Changes Steam Power s to the 1840s The Railways s to the 1890s Electric Power s to the 1930s The Motor Car s to the 1980s Information Technology s to ?

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: * 50 million users in 5 years * Currently 275 million users * By the year one billion users

e-Commerce Internet commerce will rise from the current level of US$2.6 billion to US$220 billion by the year (Witts, 1998)

E-Business - CISCO Products1 150 Employees4 29,000 Sales $1.5 million$21.4 billion Profits $83,000$2.2 billion

The key reason for the enormous growth in e-commerce is the desire by both businesses and consumers to reduce costs. For example, the US Department of Commerce figures show that the cost of making a traditional bank transaction is US$1.07 compared with US$0.01 using the Internet - a saving of 99%. e-Commerce

The Big Picture 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the next century'. Cairncross (1997)

Getting it Wrong Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 — “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.

Getting It Wrong Ken Olsen, Chairman of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 — “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home”.

Getting It Wrong Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 — “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”.

Mass Higher Education (in England) In 1900, the proportion of an age cohort attending university was only 0.8%. In 1955, the proportion had risen to 3.4%. In 1965, the proportion had risen to 10.0%. Today, the proportion is over 30%. The Big Picture

Governments throughout the world are privatising "The Commanding Heights: The Battle between Government and the Marketplace that is Remaking the Modern World” Yergin and Stanislaw (1998)  Not abstract theory, but an …...astonishing empirical phenomenon.

The Free Market Politicians and business leaders have developed a sincere commitment to competition in the free market, which they believe will engender widespread public benefits, including higher quality and more choice at lower cost to the consumer (the student).

The Big Picture The death of distance Economic rationalism User-pays-for-quality-service Market driven Rapid increase in dual mode institutions

Increasing Competition Universitas 21 (a group of 18 research-intensive universities, including Melbourne, NSW and Queensland) in conjunction with Worldwide Learning, the London-based subsidiary of News Group. Rupert Murdoch: “Education is going to be a very big part of the Internet”. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal 22 April 2000).

Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only) London School of Economics and Political Science University of Chicago Carnegie Mellon University Columbia University Stanford University

Increasing Competition The Higher Education Funding Council and the Department of Education and Employment has asked Treasury to provide an extra £100 million (AU$260 million) to fund the e-University. Britain’s e-University

Increasing Competition Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September The Cambridge e-MBA

Hungryminds.com …….. the online learning marketplace: Has developed 90 major content partnerships. Increasing Competition Offers a “Money Back Guarantee”.

Increasing Competition offers more than 1,000 online courses and has enrolled over 12,000 students. UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer points when you enrol in a Spring 2000 online course.

London School of Economics and Political Science Cambridge University Press The British Library New York Public Library Columbia University Smithsonian Institute’s National Museum of Natural History The following six institutions will invest AU$133 million to create an online library: Online Library: Fathom.com

Book publishing may again become a cottage industry: Charles Dickens sold his novels, chapter by chapter, in his own magazine, “Household Words”. Stephen King recently offered his new 16,000 word ghost story, “Riding the Bullet”, for exclusive sale via the Internet at US$2.50 per copy. Readers were able to download the text onto their computers or e-books. King sold 400,000 copies during the first day.

The Big Picture Change is the only constant. Growth is the only certainty.

Future Projections A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal 22 April 2000). The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Internet Usage in Australia In the year to February 2000, 43% of Australian adults used the Internet. 82% of Australian year olds accessed the Internet to April 2000 compared to 85% for the US and 70% for the UK.

Brick-and-mortar institutions do best by integrating the power of their existing presence with the power of Web customer service and satisfaction. The idea of “clicks and mortar”, coined by Schwab’s CEO, Dave Pottruck, is simple but important: “Clicks and Mortar”

USQ has got Legacy Power Est Moved to “Dual Mode” ICDE Institutional Prize of Excellence University of the Year Developing the e-University

Interactivity in Learning (Bates, 1991) Interactivity in Learning (Bates, 1991) Tutors, other students etc. Social Interaction Social Interaction Individual Interaction Individual Interaction Teaching - learning resources, books, audiotapes, IMM etc. Teaching - learning resources, books, audiotapes, IMM etc.

Four Generations of Distance Education Technology The Correspondence Model The Multimedia Model The Telelearning Model The Flexible Learning Model

THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Print Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Place Pace First Generation

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Second Generation THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES No No No No Yes No No No Yes No No No No Yes No No No Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Third Generation Audioteleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic Communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audioteleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic Communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audioteleconferencing THE TELELEARNING MODEL

HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes No Yes Fourth Generation Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC) Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC) THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL

USQ’s Contribution to the ICDE Research Network Pedagogical models for online education Learning preferences as a factor in online teaching and learning Collaborative learning COOL Tools Cost Analysis Models of sustainable inter-organisational collaboration 5th Generation Distance Education Current Projects:

USQ Organizational Chart

Academic Board FacultiesFaculties Information Infrastructure and Services Committee Information Infrastructure and Services Committee Online Teaching Management Committee Online Teaching Management Committee Online Systems Management Committee Online Systems Management Committee Marketing & Media Coordinating Committee Marketing & Media Coordinating Committee VCC Management of Online Initiatives

The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

Watching a race between universities, is like watching elephants play soccer. Fit, Fast, Flexible and Fluid Being the fittest, fastest and most talented elephant is a very good thing to be.