THE NATURAL LEVEL OF ENGLISH FOOTBALL TEAMS 4 th February 2013

Reason for the Analysis Can you estimate a football clubs natural level within the English pyramid? I have been interested to understand whether clubs have a natural level within the pyramid - If all things were equal, which level would they spend the majority of their history? My theory is that removing all other factors, such as over-investment by owners, a clubs natural level could be determined by the fan base (i.e. average attendance). This assumes all clubs balanced books and of course excludes the impacts of clubs going on extended good or bad runs. Whilst no club would ever be fixed at a certain natural level, it is not the sort of thing that would change over one or two seasons, but would take a long sustained period at a different level to build the club up (or down). Why is this of interest? – It gives an indication if clubs are operating above or below where they would naturally fit and may be an indication of the future of a club i.e. a club operating two divisions above its natural level may be expected to drop down eventually, either when the good run is over or the owner removes funding. – It removes the impact of good runs and over/under investment to establish where you may expect your club to be – It could give an indication of how well run your club is, either off the pitch (i.e. Chairman) or the pitch (i.e. Manager) Whilst a club would be expected to spend the majority of it’s time at the natural level, it wouldn’t be unusual for it to spend extended periods of time at one level above or below the natural level. My theory would be that extended periods two or more levels away from the natural level would be unlikely or unsustainable.

The Analysis Using the 2012/13 season average attendances, clubs have had these flexed depending on whether they would move up or down the pyramid What does this mean? – You can rank teams by current attendances, for example, based on Maidstone United’s current attendance, they would be placed at Conference National level – However, this analysis goes one step further and works on the basis that if they moved up to that level, the attendance would rise, pushing them even further up the pyramid I have looked at clubs from Premiership to Step 5 of non- league, although I have only published down to Step 3 of non-league. I’ll look to extended this in the future, although I think a natural level would become less fixed the further down the pyramid you go.

THE METHODOLOGY

Summary of Methodology If you don’t understand how I’ve done the analysis, it’s my poor explanation and I apologise for that! This analysis builds on work done by others, which look at how far clubs would move up and down the leagues based on current attendances. This analysis attempts to take another step and adjust attendances based on what would happen to clubs if they were promoted or relegated. Step 1 is to calculate the average attendance movements in clubs relegated or promoted last season Step 2 is to ranks all clubs in attendance order within their current division (at this stage it is not a global attendance ranking) Step 3, I then start with the Premiership and Championship, I work out what the average attendance would be for championship clubs in the premiership by applying the average promotion attendance increase from last season, in this case 17%. Step 4, The premiership & Championship clubs are then ordered by attendance. In this case, 6 championship clubs would have higher attendances than current premiership clubs and therefore they are moved into the premiership. The six relegated clubs are now in the Championship for the purposes of this analysis. Step 5, We then work out which clubs should be in the championship. To do this, remaining championship clubs go back to their original attendance as they’ve not been ‘promoted’. The relegated premiership clubs are now Championship clubs and therefore their attendance needs to have the relegation factor applied, in this case 26%. These championship clubs are then compared with what league one clubs attendances having the championship promotion factor applied, in this case 8% Step 6, The Championship and League clubs are then ordered by attendance, in this case only two clubs are ‘relegated’. The two relegated clubs are now League one clubs for the purposes of this analysis. Step 7,continues along this approach until all levels have been compared. It is important to note that in this approach clubs can only be promoted one division, whilst clubs can move down two or more divisions in one phase. Steps 3 to 7 are then repeated in a second, third and fourth phase until no more promotions are possible (in this case until Darlington 1883, Guernsey and Maidstone reach their peak).

Step 1: Average Movement of clubs changing divisions last season

Step 2: All clubs ranked in attendance order within their current division (at this stage it is not a global attendance ranking)

Steps 3 & 4: Championship clubs are given a ‘Premiership attendance’. This is done by multiplying this seasons attendance by last seasons ‘promotion factor’. In this case the attendances are increased by 17%. All 44 clubs are then ranked by their Premiership attendance In this case, six championship clubs are ‘promoted’

Steps 5 & 6: We then work out which clubs should be in the championship. To do this, remaining championship clubs go back to their original attendance as they’ve not been ‘promoted’. The relegated premiership clubs are now Championship clubs and therefore their attendance needs to have the relegation factor applied, in this case 26%. These championship clubs are then compared with what league one clubs attendances would be in the championship (8% rise in this case)

Shortcomings of Analysis Of which there are many, this is some and no doubt readers will offer up others…… Assumes that attendance is the only driver of ultimate ‘natural level’. Furthermore it is built off of the average attendances, rather than a long-term view of averages. Any club could be experiencing a temporary boom or bust, examples include Brighton & Maidstone (boom). Current performance will also drive attendances, an adjustment for this is not made Attendances have not been capped at a clubs current capacity. The underlying assumption is that a club will continue to extend capacity to meet demand. Equally, other ground grading issues have been excluded, it is assumed all clubs improve the ground to meet the natural level At this stage I have not looked below step 5 of non-league. This misses clubs such as AFC Rushden & Diamonds who would be placed at least at Conference South level if included in the analysis. The analysis works off of only one year of relegation/promotion % movements. This could fundamentally change the results, particularly lower down the leagues, for example the impact of relegation of clubs into the conference is based off of the drops Macclesfield & Hereford have suffered this year. Additionally it doesn’t take account of a clubs previous attendance at a level they have been moved to. Current season attendances have been taken, creating potential imbalance where divisions have one or two unusually well supported teams (Northern Premier League as an example, some clubs will already have played at home to FC United, others will not have)

THE RESULTS

Key Adjustments Where known, ‘sensible’ adjustments have been made to the underlying principles, these are listed below. I am happy to make others if highlighted. Leicester City’s attendance vs Middlesbrough has been removed from their average due to the unusually low gate Northern League attendances have been taken from season to remove the inequality of teams having played Darlington 1883, although Darlington’s current season attendance has been used. Please note that in doing this I missed off South Shields who should replace Droylsden at Step 3. In calculating the average drop in attendances from Step 3 to 4, Evesham’s increase has been removed due to the new ground impact (i.e. attendance doubles, despite relegation)

Facts & Figures of the analysis Six current Premiership clubs are ‘relegated’ based on attendances, although none suffer a two-division drop. The average attendance drop for a club from the Premiership last season was 26%, however Blackburn have suffered a 37%. If Wigan suffered the same drop as Blackburn, they would only have avoided double relegation by an average of 400 fans (or Bradford only need improve a couple of %) There is a group of clubs at the bottom of the Premiership and top of championship that are very close in attendance figures, these clubs natural level could therefore be considered ‘between divisions’ or yo-yo clubs (from Derby County 14 th in Prem to Sheffield United 3 rd in Championship) Biggest rises up four divisions (Maidstone United, Darlington 1883 and Guernsey) and three divisions (FC United, Scarborough Ath and Whitley Bay) No team moves down more than two divisions, although most notable drops are Stevenage, Bury, Colchester and Scunthorpe being ‘relegated’ from League One to the Conference All conference premier teams would average over 1,000 fans in this analysis. The balance of Conference North and South is restored. With Kettering appearing in the South. This is interesting and implies that either the current pyramid structure drives the imbalance, or Southern clubs are better funded.

Premiership & Championship

League One & League Two

Conference National

Conference North & South

Non-League ‘Step 3’

The next 20 clubs in the list South Shields have been missed out of Step 3 in error and should replace Droylsden