2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD Project Charter Template.

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Presentation transcript:

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD Project Charter Template ✔ CONTENTS: Description, Scope, Major Deliverables, Estimated Costs, Estimated Benefits, Organizational Scope, Risks, Project Manager, Budget Authority, Reporting Frequency Project Implementation Plan Template ✔ “Environmental Equivalence” phase 2, coding standards --Ongoing Ongoing Holistic 6-year plan –Ongoing, refining Project Management Procedures --TBD SCIENTIFIC SECTION: scientific requirements, background information TECHNICAL SECTION: joint EMC, NCO, external partners; enforce code/scripting standards EVALUATION SECTION: establish clear vetting and testing process ADMINISTRATIVE SECTION: needed personnel resources and actions RESOURCE ESTIMATION: Compute resources (both WCOSS and RDHPC) IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY: how system to be implemented: inception to final deliverable PROJECT SCHEDULE: greater detail than charter; Gantt chart showing overall timeline DECISION GATES: “go/no-go” points in the implementation schedule DELIVERABLES: description of finished products EMC-NCO Implementation Process Revision Leads: Mike Kane (NCEP/NCO) Andrew Ostapenko, Mike Ek (NCEP/EMC) Gantt Chart 1 Situation: Unrealistic/optimistic schedules, resource bottlenecks (human/compute). Result: Particularly low number of operational implementations in a given quarter.

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD Regional Hurricane GFDL HWRF WRF-ARW & NMMB 13 members each Climate Forecast System (CFS) Short-Range Ensemble Forecast 26 members North American Ensemble Forecast System GEFS, Canadian Global Model Dispersion HYSPLIT HYSPLIT Air Quality CMAQ NAM/NAM-nestsNMMBNOAH 3D-Hybrid- VAR DA Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM)Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM)N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM) Columbia R. ( SELFE)Columbia R. ( SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS)Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS)Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS)Delaware (ROMS) SpaceWeather ENLIL North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System Noah Land Surface Model Global Spectral Noah Land model 4D-En-VarDA Global Forecast System (GFS) 3D-VarDA 3D-En-VarDA Waves WaveWatch III Ocean (RTOFS) HYCOM HYCOM Ecosystem EwE EwE Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members WRF ARW 3D-VARDA High-Res RR (HRRR) High-Res RR (HRRR) NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART 3D-VARDA WRF ARW Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh WRF-ARW & NMMB High Res Windows GFS, MOM4, GLDAS/Noah Land, Sea Ice Nearshore Waters SURGE: SLOSH ESTOFS: ADCIRC NWPS: WWIII NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite August 2016 National Water Model Noah-MP Regional Climate Data Assimil. Syst. Eta-32/NARR 2

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD SpaceWeather ENLIL North American Land Surface Data Assimilation System Noah Land Surface Model NAM/NAM-nestsNMMB Noah land model 3D-Hybrid- VAR DA Regional Hurricane GFDL HWRF3D-En-VarDA Regional Bays Great Lakes (POM)Great Lakes (POM) N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM)N Gulf of Mexico ( FVCOM) Columbia R. ( SELFE)Columbia R. ( SELFE) Chesapeake (ROMS)Chesapeake (ROMS) Tampa (ROMS)Tampa (ROMS) Delaware (ROMS)Delaware (ROMS) Ecosystem EwE EwE Global Spectral Noah Land model 4D-En-VarDA Global Forecast System (GFS) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) 21 GFS Members North American Ensemble Forecast System GEFS, Canadian Global Model Dispersion HYSPLIT HYSPLIT WRF ARW 3D-VARDA High-Res RR (HRRR) High-Res RR (HRRR) Air Quality CMAQ WRF-ARW & NMMB High Res Windows Climate Forecast System (CFS) 3D-VarDA GFS, MOM4, GLDAS/Noah Land, Sea Ice Nearshore Waters SURGE: SLOSH ESTOFS: ADCIRC NWPS: WWIII August 2016 Regional Climate Data Assimil. Syst. Eta-32/NARR National Water Model Noah-MP 3D-VARDA WRF ARW Rapid Refresh Rapid Refresh WRF-ARW & NMMB 13 members each Short-Range Ensemble Forecast 26 members NEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC) GFS & GOCART Ocean (RTOFS) HYCOM HYCOM Waves WaveWatch III 3 NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD NCEP Production Suite (“Jigsaw”) “White Space” NCEP Production Suite 4

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD NCEP Production Suite Pie Chart* NWM SREF GDAS GFS HRRR NAM GEN-OPS RAP CFS WAV *systems >1% of total WCOSS used 5

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD EMC-NCO 6-Year Implementation Plan To balance compute/human resources, “Go Live” dates for operational systems are spread throughout the year, with ~annual updates; some systems <annual (e.g. RTMA/URMA), others multiple years (e.g. CFS). Prior to “Go Live”, work backwards with NCO 30-day “IT testing”, EMC code hand-off prior to that, going all the way back to the many development steps involving engagement of community, stakeholders. 6

2nd Annual Technical and Strategic Review of the NCEP Production Suite (NPS) 9-11 August 2016, NOAA Science Center, Silver Spring, MD Start of Development Cycle Conduct a workshop (modelers, field, academia, customers) Focus on incremental upgrades Prioritize features to be improved How do you propose to improve them? How much will it cost (time=$, HPC) How will data be disseminated? Develop detailed charter/test plan. Fixed schedule (annual, 2-year, etc) Requirements driven Phase 1 of test plan (~2-4 months) Assessment of Phase 1 results (~2 weeks) Invite Forecasters to participate EMC’s Model Evaluation Group Assessment of Phase 2 results (~2 weeks) Invite Forecasters to participate EMC’s Model Evaluation Group Final 30-day IT Testing & Implementation Final Approval Test Assess Phase 2 of test plan (~2-4 months) X Moving to Community Modeling …with a small number of models; operational control over codes; strategic planning if/when a models need modification. Model Implementations: New Business Process Vijay Tallapragada, Hendrik Tolman 7