Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Lakewood Chamber of Commerce March 25, 2015

U.S. & California Los Angeles County Lakewood Forecast/Conclusion Kyser Center for Economic Research Outline

Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. & California

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research Gross Domestic Product Annual % change, chain-type (2009) $ AnnualQuarterly Q4 2014: +2.2%

CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research Unemployment Rate

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted

California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Annual Benchmarking- Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Annual Benchmarking- Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Consumer Price Index Percent change from a year ago, 100 = Feb 2015: All Items -0.1%; Core +1.6%

Household Income Below Peak Median HH Income in Thousands of 2013 Dollars Source: Census Bureau Kyser Center for Economic Research -8%

Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Economic Forecast

Forecast Source: LAEDC, Forecast Feb 2015 Kyser Center for Economic Research California Economic Forecast

Los Angeles County Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research Local Unemployment Rates Feb 2015

Kyser Center for Economic Research Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Feb 2015: +101,100 jobs, +2.4% YTY; u-rate: 7.7%

Millions of TEUs Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research Feb 2015 YTD: -18%

YTY: -15.0% Sources: Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach Los Angeles : -10.2% YTY Long Beach: -20.1% YTY Los Angeles : -10.2% YTY Long Beach: -20.1% YTY Port Container Traffic – Los Angeles & Long Beach Ton Equivalent Units (TEUs), February 2015

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Trans/Warehousing & Wholesale Employment Feb 2015 YTY: Trans/Warehousing +2,300 jobs, +1.4% Wholesaling 7,300 jobs, +3.3% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Manufacturing Employment Feb 2015 YTY – Durable: -1,100, -0.5% | Nondurable: -2,400, -1.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics Kyser Center for Economic Research Value of Manufacturing Output – California

On-Location Film Production Days by Type Source: Film LA Kyser Center for Economic Research

L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Feb 2015 YTY: +800 jobs, +0.7%

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Financial Activities Employment Feb 2015 YTY – Fin & Ins: -1,100, -0.8% | R.E & Leasing: +2,900, 3.9% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. Health Care and Social Assistance Employment Feb 2015 YTY: +19,500 jobs, +3.2% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Leisure & Hospitality Employment Feb 2015 YTY: +19,200 jobs, +4.3% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Retail Employment Feb 2015 YTY: +10,000 jobs, +2.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales Feb 2015: +2.2% Percent change from a year ago

Los Angeles County Personal Income & Taxable Sales Growth Source: California Board of Equalization, US Dept. of Commerce, Estimates & forecasts by the LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research L.A. County Construction Employment Feb 2015 YTY: +6,900 jobs, 5.9% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos Sales$ Thousands Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick

Note: For Apartments with > 100 units Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research SoCal Six-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates

Kyser Center for Economic Research Lakewood

Kyser Center for Economic Research Selected Unemployment Rates Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division February 2015

Retail, Food & Beverage Health Care Aerospace Goods Movement Professional Business Services Kyser Center for Economic Research Local Industries

Forecast Kyser Center for Economic Research

Los Angeles County Economic Forecast Source: LAEDC

10 th Annual LAEDC-WTC International Trade Outlook Wednesday, May 20, am – 11 am Long Beach Kyser Center for Economic Research

e-EDGE Economic News Digest US and Global California California Counties Delivered weekly to your Inbox! GO TO… THANK YOU! Kyser Center for Economic Research