1 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Update: Acceleration Test & NAICS 2017 David Hiles Chief, Current Data Analysis Branch QCEW Program Bureau of Labor Statistics AUBER Conference October 24, 2016 Fayetteville, AR

2 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov Outline QCEW Overview Acceleration Test NAICS 2017 Implementation

3 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Quarterly census of employers: based on 10 million administrative reports Publication: industry by county, 6 months after quarter BLS/State cooperative program: States also publish QCEW

4 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: QCEW is Admin data PLUS: Start with UI data then  Add ARS: to update industry and location  Add MWR and EDI: to directly collect 49% of employment by worksite  Add millions of dollars of data review and correction effort in states and at BLS

5 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Geocoded: Latitude/longitude, based on physical address or zip Sample frame: for all BLS business surveys Input to: CES, BEA Personal Income, BED, LEHD

6 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Strengths Trusted: input to primary federal economic indicators (PFEIs) Local: every county, MSA, and state (USA total too!) Detailed: industry by 6 digit NAICS and higher aggregations

7 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Strengths Not a survey: little revision Timely: Available six months after the end of the quarter Not base pay: Bonuses and stock options part of QCEW wages

8 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Weaknesses Low profile: PFEI users better known than QCEW itself Not a time series: series break with MSA, industry changes, changes in basis of reporting Suppressions: some data not released to protect respondent privacy

9 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW Basics: Weaknesses Not seasonally adjusted: massive file, not a time series Massive data set: hard to fit into legacy systems

10 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov Value: QCEW v CBP Data produced:  QCEW: quarterly establishment counts, monthly employment, quarterly wages, location quotients. Also annual averages.  CBP: annual averages, includes self employed, some government Timeliness, periodicity:  CensusBLS June ann averages2015 Oct-Dec, ann averages Sept Jan-Mar Dec Apr-June Mar Jul-Sept June ann averages2016 Oct-Dec, ann averages 10

11 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov QCEW: growing, underutilized In the future, BLS will combine other data sets with QCEW to create new products. Many data users do not know that QCEW exists. Data suppressions and difficulty accessing QCEW present barriers to entry for casual users. Barriers to entry can present golden hunting grounds for the energetic. Stay current by joining the QCEW NOTE list.

12 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov One Week Acceleration Test Objective: Evaluate the feasibility of a one week earlier QCEW deliverable from states to BLS Status:  States have delivered test files for 3 quarters  Test results are promising  Decision in Feb 2017  Possible acceleration with 2017 first quarter processing 12

13 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017 Timing: QCEW begins publishing based on NAICS 2017 with release of data for the first quarter of Sample program schedules to be determined. Pushback: QCEW does not push back codes, break occurs between 2016q4 and 2017q1 BLS NAICS App:

14 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017 Impact: NAICS 2017 is minor compared to NAICS  Establishments involved: 164,064 out of 10 million  Jobs affected: 5,268,879 out of 140 million Change types: EstablishmentsJobs  Direct 95,1563,205,535  Consolidated 25,638412,720  Split 43,2701,650,624 14

15 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 1. Direct NAICS Changes A direct change means a change in numbering. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industry A will transfer directly into the new 2017 NAICS industry B.  95,156 establishments  3,205,535 jobs affected 15

16 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 1. Direct Example A direct change means a change in numbering. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industry A will transfer directly into the new 2017 NAICS industry B.  2012: Wired Telecommunications Carriers  2017: Wired Telecommunications Carriers 16

17 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 2. Consolidated NAICS Changes A consolidated change means that NAICS codes are being rolled up (or consolidated) into a new code. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industries A, B, and C will transfer directly into the new 2017 NAICS industry D.  25,638 establishments  412,720 jobs 17

18 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 2. Consolidated Example A consolidated change means that NAICS codes are being rolled up (or consolidated) into a new code. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industries A, B, and C will transfer directly into the new 2017 NAICS industry D.  2012: Electronic Shopping  2012: Electronic Auctions  2012: Mail-Order Houses CONSOLIDATE INTO  2017: Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses. 18

19 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 3. Split NAICS Changes A split NAICS change means that a NAICS code is being broken down into finer detail. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industry A will need to be re-coded into either 2017 NAICS industry B or C, depending on the economic activity of the establishment.  43,270 establishments  1,650,624 jobs This change is based on employer responses. 19

20 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov NAICS 2017: 3. Split NAICS Example A split NAICS change means that a NAICS code is being broken down into finer detail. All establishments in 2012 NAICS industry A will need to be re-coded into either 2017 NAICS industry B or C, depending on the economic activity of the establishment.  2012: Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction SPLITS INTO  2017: Crude Petroleum Extraction.  2017: Natural Gas Extraction. 20

21 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov Questions? QCEW home page:

Contact Information 22 — U.S. B UREAU OF L ABOR S TATISTICS bls.gov David Hiles Chief, Branch of Current Data Analysis QCEW Program Bureau of Labor Statistics