SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME Specific Support Action - FP INCO-COMultilatRTD/SSA-5 PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering Athens - October 8/9, ESEMIISPEIPEBSRECGPOGCKEPA PROMITHEAS-2 EU-BSEC Energy and Climate Policy Network International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference “Energy and Climate Change” October 8 – 9, 2009 Athens – Greece Anca Simona Bardici MSc. Eng.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 2 International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference “Energy and Climate Change” International Black Sea Energy Policy Conference “Energy and Climate Change” “National projections of green house gases emissions by sources and their removal for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020” Authors: Ph.D. Anca Popescu – ISPE Bucharest MSc. Eng. Anca Simona Bardici – ISPE Bucharest MSc. Eng. Anca Simona Bardici – ISPE Bucharest

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 3 Content  Introduction  Description of methodologies, models, underlying assumptions and key input and output parameters  Hypothesis on macroeconomic indicators and on Energy activities  Analysis of the options for the development of the electricity production sector  Hypothesis on non-energy activities in industrial processes  Hypothesis on non-energy activities in Agriculture  Projections of the GHG emissions  Aggregated projections of GHG emissions  Conclusions

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 4 Introduction Romania’s current political outlook regarding environmental protection presents a proactive approach that is mainly shaped by the approximation of national policy to EU standards. The Romania’s Governmental Programme for the period (adopted in December 2008) stipulates specific priorities for climate change mitigation and adoption of specific policies and measures in order to stabilize GHG emissions (promote the decrease of energy consumption through the use of efficient energy technologies, thermal insulation of residences and through sustaining the use of less polluting vehicles; promoting the cheap and clean energy production from renewable sources; identifying and implementing of feasible measures on carbon capture and storage).

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 5 Paper objective (1)  The main objective of this paper is the achievement of the green house gases emissions projections (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 ) for the years 2010, 2015 and  The projections were made for different socio-economical evolution scenarios and of technological evolution for achieving the environmental commitments of Romania.   The evolutions of GHG emissions has been established for:  Energy sector  Non energy sector

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 6 Paper objective (2) The following fields of activity have been analyzed in energy sector:  Energy supply from domestic and imports;  Energy conversion-refineries and coke factories. production of electricity and heat;  Energy consumers. For non-energy sector the following fields of activities have been analyzed :  Forestry as concerns atmospheric carbon sequestering options;  Agriculture as regards the evaluation of CH 4 emissions resulting in animal digestion and the fermentation of animal dejections and N 2 O emissions subsequent to the application of nitrogen fertilizers;  Industry for the appraisal of emissions resulting in industrial processes;  Solvents and other products whose emissions have been determined in correlation with economic and technological evolution;  The management of wastes meant to assess CH 4 and CO 2 emissions.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 7 Description of methodologies, models, underlying assumptions and key input and output parameters The methodology for GHG projections calculation is similar to the one used for establishing the National Allocation Plan under the EU ETS. It relies both on historical data provided by the national GHG Inventory, for the period , and on macroeconomic indicators forecasts, indicators considered in the Romanian Government’s relevant strategies and for the socio- economic policies taking into consideration EU acquis communautaire. The methodology for GHG projections calculation is similar to the one used for establishing the National Allocation Plan under the EU ETS. It relies both on historical data provided by the national GHG Inventory, for the period , and on macroeconomic indicators forecasts, indicators considered in the Romanian Government’s relevant strategies and for the socio- economic policies taking into consideration EU acquis communautaire. The energy GHG projections were established considering the energy demand subsector (industry, transport, agriculture, household and commercial consumption) and the supplying sub-sector (primary energy resources extraction, their conversion in refineries, thermo-electric power plants, thermal power plants, transport and distribution of energy products to consumers). The energy GHG projections were established considering the energy demand subsector (industry, transport, agriculture, household and commercial consumption) and the supplying sub-sector (primary energy resources extraction, their conversion in refineries, thermo-electric power plants, thermal power plants, transport and distribution of energy products to consumers). The projections are based on calculations carried out using the ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program) programs package, developed by Argonne National laboratory of US Department of Energy (DOE) and distributed to Romania by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The projections are based on calculations carried out using the ENPEP (Energy and Power Evaluation Program) programs package, developed by Argonne National laboratory of US Department of Energy (DOE) and distributed to Romania by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In order to allow the use of the modules package, a national energy balance has been prepared considering the available or imported primary energy resources. The main elements of the energy balance are: In order to allow the use of the modules package, a national energy balance has been prepared considering the available or imported primary energy resources. The main elements of the energy balance are: - primary energy resources; - primary energy resources conversion technologies; - energy products transport and distribution; - energy consumers classified according to the IPCC Guidelines.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 8 ENPEP Programme

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 9 Description of emissions projections scenarios (1) The GHG emissions projections were prepared for three different scenarios:  the reference scenario, “business as usual” (BAU), possible to be realized in the future, which does not include distinct activities for GHG emissions mitigation;  the “with measures” scenario similar to the BAU scenario considering the evolution of the economic-social indicators, which comprises GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes;  the “with additional measures” scenario similar to the “with measures” scenario, which comprises additional GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 10 Description of emissions projections scenarios (2)  The base year for the analysis was considered 2006 because there are official data given by Romanian Statistical Yearbook related to Energy Balance and by Ministry of Environment related to National Inventory Report.  The data used in ENPEP packet program was adapted taken into consideration the statistical data of 2006

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 11 Macroeconomic and energy indicators of Romania for period AchievementsForecast Population10 6 loc GDP10 9 Euro GDP/capita Euro 2005/loc Final energy consumption 10 6 tep Gross electricity consumption TWh Source: Romanian Energy Strategy (2007)

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 12 Analysis of the options for the development of the electricity production Source: National Institute for Statistics – Romanian Statistical Yearbook 2008 Evolution of installed power capacity in the period 2000 – 2007 (MW)

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 13 Evolution of Romanian electricity sector in the period Electricity production, TWh AchievementsForecast Gross electricity consumption Electricity export Total electricity production Which from: hydropowerplants (including renewable) nuclear power plants thermal power plants Which from,  on coal  on natural gas  on fuel oil Source: Romanian Energy Strategy (2007)

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 14 The analyzed power plants development program options To establish the optimum power plants development program, the following scenarios were analyzed: Scenario A - reference takes into account that all plants of all types (nuclear, thermal, hydro, and wind) are in free competition, without restrictions, the order of selection being the economic order allowing the consideration of the loading curve. Scenario A - reference takes into account that all plants of all types (nuclear, thermal, hydro, and wind) are in free competition, without restrictions, the order of selection being the economic order allowing the consideration of the loading curve. Scenario B is considering the use of new hydroelectric power groups in totalizing an installed power of 217 MW, 472 MW, 1472 MW, the other candidate groups being in a free competition; Scenario B is considering the use of new hydroelectric power groups in totalizing an installed power of 217 MW, 472 MW, 1472 MW, the other candidate groups being in a free competition; Scenario C is considering an imposed thermal power programme during by installing groups with a power of 3100 MW (1200 MW gas-fired, 700 MW on lignite, 1200 MW on coal), the other candidate groups being in a free competition; Scenario C is considering an imposed thermal power programme during by installing groups with a power of 3100 MW (1200 MW gas-fired, 700 MW on lignite, 1200 MW on coal), the other candidate groups being in a free competition; Scenario D takes into account new wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW in , the other groups being in a free competition; Scenario D takes into account new wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW in , the other groups being in a free competition; Scenario E takes into account new installed thermal power groups to use domestic coal and lignite correlated with forecasted productions presented and hydro power groups of 472 MW during ; Scenario E takes into account new installed thermal power groups to use domestic coal and lignite correlated with forecasted productions presented and hydro power groups of 472 MW during ; Scenario F takes into account in addition to the scenario E new installed wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW. Scenario F takes into account in addition to the scenario E new installed wind power plants with an installed power of 4000 MW.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 15 Hypothesis on non-energy activities in industrial processes The assumptions in the industry sector are related to the evolution of the main industrial processes. Thus, the production parameters for cast-iron, steel, aluminum, other nonferrous metals, chemical fertilizers, other chemical products and cement represent essential elements that were analyzed for the establishment of GHG emissions projections. The assumptions in the industry sector are related to the evolution of the main industrial processes. Thus, the production parameters for cast-iron, steel, aluminum, other nonferrous metals, chemical fertilizers, other chemical products and cement represent essential elements that were analyzed for the establishment of GHG emissions projections. Evolution of the main industrial processes is determined in accordance with the economic development of Romania. Levels of production for various industrial products for are established in line with the period and taking into account the various industries development prognosis. Evolution of the main industrial processes is determined in accordance with the economic development of Romania. Levels of production for various industrial products for are established in line with the period and taking into account the various industries development prognosis. The same production levels are considered for the alternative scenarios, but the focus is on improving the industry technology and replacing the inefficient technologies with modern ones. The same production levels are considered for the alternative scenarios, but the focus is on improving the industry technology and replacing the inefficient technologies with modern ones. It should be mentioned that the old technology is not expected to be replaced in the period Thus, the production will be generated with the improved old technology. New capacities with modern technology are expected to be put into operation after Emissions from Solvents and Other Products Use have been determined in correlation with the economic and technological evolution. It should be mentioned that the old technology is not expected to be replaced in the period Thus, the production will be generated with the improved old technology. New capacities with modern technology are expected to be put into operation after Emissions from Solvents and Other Products Use have been determined in correlation with the economic and technological evolution.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 16 Hypothesis on non-energy activities in agriculture Romania has an agricultural area of about thou. ha out of which approximately 9400 thou. ha are arable area, cultivated with cereals and green crops. Table bellow presents the agricultural area trend for the “BAU” (reference) scenario, by land use, for the period Romania has an agricultural area of about thou. ha out of which approximately 9400 thou. ha are arable area, cultivated with cereals and green crops. Table bellow presents the agricultural area trend for the “BAU” (reference) scenario, by land use, for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 17 Total CO 2 emissions for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 18 Total CH 4 emissions for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 19 Total N 2 O emissions for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 20 Total F-gases emissions for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 21 Total GHG emissions for the period

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 22 Total GHG emissions in 2006 EU-27 versus Romania

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 23 Conclusions Both the National Greenhouse Gases Inventory and the GHG projections shows that the main source of GHG emissions (direct and indirect) is the fuel combustion. Therefore, the most important measure for the GHG mitigation is the efficient use of primary energy resources, promotion of renewable energy resources and safe nuclear technologies. Both the National Greenhouse Gases Inventory and the GHG projections shows that the main source of GHG emissions (direct and indirect) is the fuel combustion. Therefore, the most important measure for the GHG mitigation is the efficient use of primary energy resources, promotion of renewable energy resources and safe nuclear technologies. In 2006 the GHG emissions levels were 44% lower compared with the base year. In this respect the GHG emissions levels in the period are expected to be lower than the Kyoto Protocol target. In 2006 the GHG emissions levels were 44% lower compared with the base year. In this respect the GHG emissions levels in the period are expected to be lower than the Kyoto Protocol target. The total EU-27 GHG emissions accounted 5142 Mt CO 2 equivalent in The GHG emissions of Romania represented about 3% of the EU-27 GHG emissions in year The total EU-27 GHG emissions accounted 5142 Mt CO 2 equivalent in The GHG emissions of Romania represented about 3% of the EU-27 GHG emissions in year In the present economical and geopolitical context it is not possible to establish a sustainable energy development based exclusively on economic order of solutions and must adopt new criteria which can offer security of supply with energy resources and to be able to satisfay needs of the electricity consumers. In the present economical and geopolitical context it is not possible to establish a sustainable energy development based exclusively on economic order of solutions and must adopt new criteria which can offer security of supply with energy resources and to be able to satisfay needs of the electricity consumers.

PROMITHEAS-2 Institute for Studies and Power Engineering 24 Thank you for your attention! Anca Simona Bardici Institute for Studies and Power Engineering (ISPE) Energy and Environment Division 1-3 Lacul Tei Blvd Bucharest Romania ph: