Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council, Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest,

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Presentation transcript:

Romania – real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council, Professor at Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania June 2014

Eurozone enlargement – current status Source: European Commission

Public policies make a difference Source: European Commission

Real convergence: not a one way street Source: European Commission

Euro area enlargement: euro adopted recently only by small countries Source: European Commission, Eurostat Euro adoption years: 2007: Slovenia 2008: Malta, Cyprus 2009: Slovakia 2011: Estonia 2014: Latvia

Euro area enlargement: deep foreign trade integration for Euro area late comers Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH * computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries

Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capita at the moment of euro adoption Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Real convergence in Romania by 2019: some scenarios Source: European Commission, Eurostat, own computation Real GDP should grow by at least 4% on average per year to be in Scenario 2.

Scarce net inflows of foreign capital to private sector, slow recovery pace Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolio inflows excluded

Source: European Commission Note: Transfers refer both to interim (recognized) payments and advances; most recent data made public by the European Commission; Data refer to 15 April 2014 Much stronger progress in absorption of EU funds is needed Utilizarea Fondurilor Structurale permite (1) cresterea potentialului de crestere economica si (2) acoperirea necesarului de finantare externa al tarii

Potential agricol ridicat... Romania ocupa un loc important in Uniunea Europeana din punct de vedere al suprafetelor agricole si al ocuparii in agricultura Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

... dar insuficient valorificat - probleme structurale in agricultura Impact puternic al conditiilor climaterice asupra productiei agricole Segmentare importanta a exploatatiilor agricole (lipsa cadastrului) Agricultura de subzistenta detine o pondere importanta Romania este importator net de produse agroalimentare (exclusiv cereale) Sursa: Eurostat, Institutul National de Statsitica, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Resurse financiare mari alocate pentru cheltuielile publice de investitii, dar: exista un sentiment puternic ca progresele facute in domeniul infrastructurii au fost foarte mici infrastructura slaba ramane o problema esentiala pentru Romania Necesitatea prioritizarii investitiilor si atragerii sectorului privat (parteneriate publice-private) Sursa: Eurostat, World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report Cresterea eficientei cheltuielilor de investitii publice este absolut necesara Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din PIB, medie anuala, ) Cheltuieli publice de investitii (% din veniturile bugetare, medie anuala, )

Structura cheltuielilor bugetare dupa clasificatia functionala, 2012 Sursa: EUROSTAT Resurse reduse alocate sanatatii si educatiei

Eficienta energetica scazuta a economiei Eficienta energetica a economiei s-a imbunatatit, dar ramane redusa comparativ cu celelalte economii din Uniunea Europeana Cresterea eficientei energetice a economiei permite cresterea competitivitatii acesteia, inclusiv reducerea importurilor de produse energetice Sursa: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

Ineficienta companiilor de stat reprezinta o problema serioasa Structura arieratele companiilor din Romania (% din total, decembrie 2012) Desi contribuie cu doar circa 7% la valoarea adaugata din economie, companiile de stat contribuie cu circa 24% la totalul arieratelor din economie Sursa: Consiliul Fiscal

Competitivitatea economiei este una relativ scazuta

World Bank Doing Business Report – Ranking (out of 189 countries) Source: World Bank Doing Business Report

World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report – Ranking (out of 148 countries) Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum,

World Bank Doing Business Report – Paying taxes, ranking (out of 189 countries) Source: World Bank Doing Business Report

VAT rate Source: European Commission

Top personal income tax rates Source: European Commission

Top statutory tax rate on corporate income Source: European Commission

Social security contributions Source: European Commission

What employers must spend to pay each net euro to an employee Sursa: Molinari Economic Institute, The Tax Burden of Typical Workers in the EU 27, 2013

Disparitati regionale foarte mari