 Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years.

The world in 2030 will be divided into three areas: 1-A Globalizing area (51.5 % of the population, 74.5% of the world GNI) with a growing middle class. 2-A backward area dominated by Islamism ( 34.5% of world population and only 3.5% of world GNI) with low incomes, economic regression and chaos 3-A declining area (European Union and South America: 14% of the world population and 22% of the world GNI).

Global Trends 2030 has identified four overarching megatrends that are expected to shape and transform the world over the next couple of decades:  individual empowerment;  the diffusion of power;  demographic patterns;  the growing nexus among food, water, energy and climate change.

Individual Empowerment Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances.

Diffusion of Power There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world.

Demographic Patterns The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in aging countries. Sixty percent of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase.

Food, Water, Energy Nexus Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others.

Storyline for each of the four alternative worlds: stalled engines - globalization stalls and interstate conflicts increase; fusion - worldwide cooperation on a number of issues led by the US and China; gini-out-of-the-bottle: economic inequalities dominate, leading to increased social tensions and global conflicts; and nonstate world - nonstate actors collaborate to confront global challenges leading to a more stable and socially cohesive world.

A Tale of Two Cities: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair... we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...