The UK at risk? Cameron Dunn Chief Examiner The UK at risk?

1-At risk from what? Drought Water shortage, subsidence, heat related mortality. Flood Property damage, transport disruption, crop losses. Storms Property damage, transport disruption, injury and death, power outages. Erosion Loss of land and property, mitigation costs. Snow Transport and services disruption, cold related deaths.

The UK at risk? 2- Trends & predictions Rainfall patterns have changed. Northern and western areas have become wetter since 1960 Central, southern and eastern areas have become drier. These trends are likely to continue, with more marked seasonal differences. UK 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios (UKCIP08).

The UK at risk? Wetter winters in England and Wales Possibly much drier summers, especially in the south. Climate Change Scenarios (UKCIP 2002).

The UK at risk? In general, UK temperatures are 1  C higher than 1960 In the south and east this edges towards 2  C A further 2  C by 2050 seems likely? UK 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios (UKCIP08).

The UK at risk? Significant risk of increased mid-latitude storm activity. Models disagree where this will occur within in the UK WWF ‘Stormy Europe’, 2006Benfield Hazards Research centre

The UK at risk? 3 – Planning for Climate Change or Extreme Events? The UK Climate Impacts Programme suggests Local Government should be planning for more frequent and larger magnitude extreme events super imposed on a changing climate:

The UK at risk? Short term weather extremes versus long term climate changes NHS heatwave responseReduced winter deaths Utility companies response to storm events Farmers required to change crops and growing cycle Environment Agency and emergency services flood response Reduced LA need for gritters; earlier grass cutting Increased insurance premiums Water board planning for lower summer rain pattern; increased waterlogging

The UK at risk? 4- Lessons from the 2003 Heat Wave UK deaths; 30,000 + European deaths 25% chance of similar event by 2017 which may kill 6000 Source: The Daily Mail

The UK at risk? Increased risk of subsidence as clay soils shrink (see graphic) Severe impacts on crop yields; wheat fell 12% in 2003 in the UK Source: CRU, UEA / Subsidence claim costs Association of British Insurers

The UK at risk? Increased risk of severe water stress south and east. Water demand and supply in south east are highly divergent. WWF ‘Rich World’ poor water’ 2006

The UK at risk? 5- Flood risk: rising waters Trends suggest winter rainfall patterns are increasing flood risk. T Osborn, Climatic Research Unit, 2003 Rising number of ‘heavy precipitation’ days (intense winter rain) Rising number 5 day+ periods of winter rain (antecedent conditions)

The UK at risk? Rainfall appears to becoming significantly more variable. Extremes of 150% plus are common Regional patterns confuse the picture e.g. Carlisle.

The UK at risk? Summer 2007 floods: £3 billion in damage

The UK at risk? Flooding Futures? Summer 2007 likely to be linked to La Nina. Widely viewed as a ‘wake up call’ This sort of event will become more common, possibly not in June / July. The Pitt Review, 2007 (Review of 2007 summer floods)

The UK at risk? Snowbursts: what’s going on? Days with frost have fallen significantly since the 1960s, as has snow fall. UK 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios (UKCIP08).

The UK at risk? Snow is common from Nov –Mar in the UK, and can hit anywhere. However, the trend is “a strong downward trend since 1961 in the number of days with snow cover.. strongest in southern England, where there are about 75% fewer days with snow cover compared to 1961”

The UK at risk? Snowfall may be an example of an increasingly rare hazard, which we deal with increasingly badly! “Weather causes travel chaos” “Road gridlock after Surprise snow” “Road is cleared after snow chaos”

The UK at risk? Conclusions Try to get students to focus on possible climate trends Sift –out trends in extreme weather Contrast short (weather) and long term (climate) impacts Use case studies carefully; these are usually of weather, not climate