The State of the Ghanaian Economy

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Presentation transcript:

The State of the Ghanaian Economy BAWUMIA SHOWS WHY MAHAMA IS WORSE THAN MILLS A foundation of Concrete or Straw Dr Mahamudu Bawumia 8th September, 2016

Tax Revenue Comparison GH¢118.2 Billion GH¢15.2 Billion 2001-2008 2009-2016

Human Development Index Measure of Progress in Income, Literacy, and Life Expectancy Between 2000 and 2010, Ghana Made the Most Progress in Human Development Index Between 2010 and 2014, Ghana’s Human Development Index Declined from 1.33 to 1.13

In Response to IMF: Increase Tax Burden Imposed Taxes on Condoms, Cutlasses, Savings and Investments Increased Taxes on Businesses Increased Capital Gains Tax from 10% to 25% Increased Withholding Tax from 15% to 20% Introduced Energy Levy (10%) Introduced VAT on Electricity (17.5%), Introduced VAT of Financial Services (17.5%) Introduced Special Import Levy Introduced Taxes on Ambulances and Bicycles

Debt 100.2 Bil Debt 37.7 Bil 2001-2008 2008-2012 2012-2015 Kufuor Mills 2012-2015 Mahama

Dollar Value of Government Borrowings (2009- May 2016)- Billions Total Debt (GHC) Additional Debt (GHC) Exchange Rate GHC/US Dollar Additional Debt (US$) 2008 9.5 2009 13.2 3.7 1.42 2.61 2010 17.3 4.1 1.47 2.79 2011 26.1 8.8 1.5 5.87 2012 37.7 11.6 1.88 6.17 2013 49.9 12.2 2.2 5.55 2014 76.1 26.2 3.2 8.19 2015 100.2 24.1 3.8 6.34 2016 May 105 5 3.9 1.28 Total 89.6 38.79

Interest Payments In 2015, Interest Payments amounted to more than GH¢9.6 billion as against GH¢680 million in 2008. 2015 Interest Payments were more than the total debt stock of GH¢9.5 billion in 2008. Interest Payments in 2016 of GH¢10.5 billion are five times what was allocated to six key ministries combined (GH¢2.1 billion): Ministry of Roads and Highways, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources, Works and Housing, Ministry of Youth and Sports, and Ministry of Transport

FIGURE 16: Sovereign Spreads over LIBOR

Unemployment Youth unemployment in Ghana stands at 48% (World Bank). Graduate unemployment has reached crisis proportions with a reported 60% of graduates unable to find a job three years after graduation.  The increasing unemployment in the country is a ticking time bomb.

A GLOBAL PROBLEM? Ghana West African Countries For the third successive year, Ghana scored Zero on the Macro-economic Convergence Criteria such as inflation, external reserves, central bank financing, fiscal deficit, tax/GDP ratio and exchange rate stability. This placed us last in West Africa. Ghana West African Countries

Assessment of Infrastructure Investments The Mahama government has touted its achievements in the area of infrastructure (Roads, water projects, hospitals, schools, etc.). NDC has increased Ghana’s debt from GHC9.5 billion to GHC 105 billion so far, can they point to an equivalent value of projects?   The cost of all the infrastructure expenditure undertaken by this NDC is less than $7 billion. Meanwhile, the government has borrowed the equivalent of some $39 billion; so where is the rest of the money?  According to the IMF Managing Director, most of Ghana’s borrowing has been used for consumption and not for investment. The overpricing of contracts, corruption and the absence of value for money considerations are partly responsible for this.

Wasted Billions Could Have … Solve Water Problem Construct the Accra-Kumasi-Paga Railway Solve the energy problem and not put the country through 4 years of Dumsor $33 Billion Build an additional 600 of the Senior High Schools At least 1000 kilometers of asphalt road in each region Set up factories with the private sector across the country Transform Agriculture At least 1000 ambulances for the Ghana Ambulance service    One world class hospital in each region. Equip our existing health Centers