The Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the Twenty-First Century Doug Boucher, UCS UCS’ The Root of the Problem report - a comprehensive review of the literature on the drivers of deforestation, published in 2011

The conventional wisdom about what drives deforestation, is Wrong

The 20 th century conventional wisdom about what causes deforestation: – Deforestation is driven by population growth in tropical forest countries – Peasant farmers, through their subsistence agriculture and firewood gathering, are the main agents of deforestation What the recent literature shows: – Commercial agriculture and forestry – especially soybeans, beef cattle, palm oil and timber – are now the major drivers – The markets for these products are global, in both developed and developing countries

The Underlying Demand

Population and Diet Conventional wisdom: Increasing rural populations are the main cause of pressure on forests The recent literature shows: Urban populations and export markets, not population growth, are the chief sources of the demand that drives deforestation

Changes in demography Population growth rates much lower, including in tropical forest nations: Rural populations no longer growing in Brazil, Indonesia, etc. Global population expected to level off in later 21 st - century Rapid urbanization

Global land use change Food production increased by 115% between 1967 and 2007 Crop land increased by only 8% over this same four-decade period During this period: – Little change in the area harvested for cereals, pulses, root crops or sugar crops – But the area in oilseed crops (esp. palm oil and soy) more than doubled UK Foresight report C1, 2011; data from FAOSTATS

Conclusions about underlying demand The pressure of population growth has slowed in recent decades, especially in rural areas, and will continue to slow in the future Changes in diet – especially greater consumption of meat, other livestock products, feed grains for them, and vegetable oils – will increasingly be the main cause of demand growth

Agents of Deforestation

Small-scale farmers Conventional wisdom: : Rural populations are driving deforestation for subsistence farming The recent literature shows: Small-scale farmers are no longer a main driver of deforestation, although much of the policy discussion still focuses on them

Wood for fuel Conventional wisdom: : Poor peoples’ use of firewood is destroying forest The recent literature shows: Firewood is not a major driver of deforestation, but there is reason for concern about charcoal, especially near cities

Africa has different drivers but also much lower deforestation emissions From R.A. Houghton, WHRC Cancun side event, 7 Dec 2010

So, if these aren’t the main causes of deforestation, what are?

The four major drivers CommodityDeforestation Emissions (GtCO2eq/year) Beef1.0 Wood products0.4 Palm oil0.2 Soybean0.1 TOTAL1.7 Henders, Persson and Kastner Environmental Research Letters

The top four drivers account for the majority of deforestation emissions Five recent estimates of total deforestation emissions range from 2.16 to 3.23 GtCO2eq/year (Harris et al. 2012, Baccini et al. 2012, Achard et al. 2014, Tyukavina et al. 2015, Zarin et al. 2015) Thus, the 1.7 GtCO2eq/year caused by the top four drivers, represent between 53% and 79% of the total

Beef is the dominant driver Henders, Persson and Kastner Environmental Research Letters CommodityDeforestation Emissions (GtCO2eq/year) Percent of emissions from the Top 4 Drivers Beef1.059% Wood products0.423% Palm oil0.212% Soybean0.16% TOTAL1.7100%

Beef is a Western Hemisphere food

The global distribution of cattle

Soybeans Large-scale commercial soy production grew rapidly in the late 1990s, becoming the cause of about one-fourth of Amazon deforestation However, civil-society pressure and business responsibility has successfully reduced the impact of soybeans on deforestation in the Amazon to low levels Macedo et al. 2012, Rudorff et al. 2011

Palm Oil It leads to very significant carbon dioxide emissions, particularly when it is planted on peat lands. Palm oil is one of the most important drivers of deforestation in Southeast Asia, and has grown rapidly Saxon and Sheppard 2011

Timber and pulp Tropical timber and pulp and paper production creates roads for the other drivers and is economically important to deforestation in Southeast Asia The timber industry there is financially linked to expanding palm oil and pulp and paper plantations

What about biofuels? Most biofuel production comes from standard agricultural crops, not from specialized sources such as jatropha or switchgrass These are: – Sugar cane and maize for ethanol – Palm oil and canola for biodiesel Biofuel policies simply increase demand for these crops – and the land used to produce them – thus raising their prices

Examples of success

Brazil’s reduction in Amazon deforestation: By 70% since

The largest reduction in GHG emissions of any country: by more than 40% in the last decade

Mexico

Central Africa: Continued low deforestation in the largest High-Forest Low-Deforestation region

El Salvador: reforestation funded by remittances and capital brought back by emigrants

Policies that have worked – REDD+ (including many of the following) – Payment for Ecosystem Services – Governance and enforcement – Moratoria of various kinds – Combining environmental programs with social and economic development

Conclusions The drivers of deforestation have changed fundamentally as we have moved into the 21 st century Underlying demand is and will increasingly be driven by shifts in diet, not population growth Large commercial agriculture and wood- products production are now the leading drivers These drivers can be shifted away from forests

The new drivers of deforestation web pages, and other information, are at: deforestation/whats-driving-deforestation and at Doug Boucher Thank you!

A broader view – Climate-Friendly Land Use Now starting to look at all emissions from the AFOLU sector, not just deforestation Very large emissions associated with livestock production, especially beef

Greenhouse Gas Emissions These same commodities – especially beef, palm oil and soy – are major causes of global warming pollution from the land sector Dickie et al – agriculturalmitigation.org

Beef uses much more land and energy to produce meat than pork or chicken