Skills and tomorrow’s labour market Becci Newton, Principal Research Fellow Supply and demand

 Today’s labour market Vacancies, skills shortages and gaps, levels of training Employment, unemployment, age trends  Future skills demands  The fit and role of Apprenticeship Standards Coverage

2015 (%)2013 (%)2011 (%) Rising vacancies Rising hard to fill vacancies854 Rising skill shortage vacancies643 Density of SSVs largely unchanged since Reducing skills gaps Staff not fully proficient655 Falling skills under-utilisation3048 Largely static overall rate of training Static % of staff being trained Static % off the job training49 47 Today’s labour market: skills and vacancies

 Rising % of population in employment, falling unemployment  Reducing % NEET in population  But youth employment rising as a % of the adult unemployment rate (see chart) Today’s labour market: employment Source: ONS, LM Stats May 2014

Today’s labour market: employment (2) Source: ONS, LM Stats May 2014 The rise of the older worker (percentage of change in numbers employed

Employment by sector by age Today’s labour market: employment (3) Source: APS 2015

Where young people want to work Today’s labour market: employment (4) Source: CISI

Today’s labour market: apprenticeships (5) Apprenticeship training by sector (All ages, all levels, mostly old-style SASE/Framework Apprenticeship)

Where will the new jobs be? Replacement and expansion demand Future skill demands: new jobs Source: IER estimates, MDM revision 12015

Employment in 2022 Future skill demands: new jobs (2)  Largest volume Caring and personal services Corporate managers Business and public services associate professionals Admin occupations Elementary trades  Fastest growth Caring and personal services Health and social care professionals Health professionals Corporate managers Business, media and public service professionals

 Qualification levels will rise – as much supply-led as demand-led and some evidence of under-employment  High growth occupations for young people: customer service (retail and hospitality) caring and personal service jobs technicians (in manufacturing and energy) creative and digital occupations  Most will require level 2/3 qualifications  Importance of the attitudes and behaviours: enthusiasm, understanding the business context, attention to detail, reliability etc.  Coupled to generic (and some technical) competences: communication; problem-solving; production-related technical skills in manufacturing; project management  Growing importance of a ‘T’–shaped skill set (combination of depth and breadth) Future skill demands: qualifications, growth occupations, competencies (3)

 New: response to the Richard Review, radical departure from SASE/Frameworks?  Employer-led: employers lead and participate in Trailblazer networks to define skills and behaviours required for occupations (the Standard)  Employer-led: employers agree high level synoptic assessment (the assessment model)  Employer funded? Trailblazer networks on average have taken a year or more to have Standards approved – with limited government funding supplied  Employer funded? Employers will co-fund external sources training but at the 10% level (not the 33% tested over the past 2 years)  Higher level skills: most Standards are Level 3+; Trailblazers have created new Degree Apprenticeships up to Level 7 The fit and role of the Apprenticeship Standards: about the standards (1)

 145 Standards approved for delivery; 176 Standards in development  More standards at higher and Degree levels – promotes use wtihin career transitions (cVET) as well as initial vocational education training (iVET)  More than half of employers involved say Standards are an improvement (but for a quarter, it is too early to say) 8% of these employers say they will use the Standards in the next 5 years  A quarter of employers in ESS15 aware of Standards 67% of these will use Standards in next 5 years) 6% overall involved in development (in some way)  Limited numbers training through standards currently 2,600 Standards started out of 884,000 Apprenticeship started in total: i.e. 0.3%  15 ‘graduates’ this summer (power networks standard) The fit and role of the Apprenticeship Standards: progress and uptake (2)

 Predictions for upwards of 1,500 new Standards to replace 224 SASE/Frameworks: risks overlaps  Narrowly defined, not promoting transferable skills – associated with overlapping standards with differently defined training: risks constricting worker mobility  Requires expertise to support into delivery – detailed assessment and training plans: risks timetable to start delivery  For some Standards, sophisticated and expensive equipment required to meet training requirement may limit the number of providers and geographies involved: risks national roll-out The fit and role of the Apprenticeship Standards: the risks (3)

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