Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction – The Role of Geoscience Joy Jacqueline Pereira Deputy Director President, Geological Society of Malaysia Southeast Asia Disaster Prevention Research Institute (SEADPRI-UKM), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia The 12th Regional Congress on Geology, Mineral and Energy Resources of Southeast Asia, 7-8 March 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

Sustainable Development Goals…  Both the environment and the community are given adequate emphasis  A wide range of social, economic and environmental needs are satisfied  Equitable access to resources  Fairness in distribution of societal risk  Needs of both present and future generations are met

Source: IPCC, 2007 Drivers of climate change – natural & human

Projected global average precipitation changes for the late 21 st century ( ) relative to the period 1980–1999. The estimates are based on multi-model average projections for the medium (A1B) scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change. (IPCC, 2007)

Source: IPCC, 2007

Growing water scarcity( ) SEI - Criticality index (Source: WaterGAP)

Asia

Multiple Climate Hazards Map (Source: EEPSEA 2009)

Adaptive Capacity of Southeast Asia (Source: EEPSEA 2009)

Climate Change Vulnerability of Southeast Asia (Source: EEPSEA 2009)

Temperature rise 2 0 C Temperature rise 2 0 C More extreme hydrological conditions More extreme hydrological conditions Higher maximum rainfall; Lower minimum rainfall. Higher maximum rainfall; Lower minimum rainfall. Higher high riverflow; Lower low riverflow. Higher high riverflow; Lower low riverflow. Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by : Adaptation based on wise resource management; Mitigation to enhance adaptation & sustainable development Potential implications: Water balance  Water sufficiency Water balance  Water sufficiency Crops yields  Food security Crops yields  Food security Plantation  Economic loss Plantation  Economic loss Infrastructure  Repairs & reconstruction Infrastructure  Repairs & reconstruction Source: NAHRIM (2008) Climate Change Projection - Malaysia (Source: NAHRIM, 2008)

Precipitation Soil Surface Temperature Source: NAHRIM (2008) Climate Change Projection – Selangor, Malaysia

Adaptive Capacity: End-Point Approach Design and implementation of adaptation: Future climate change Vulnerability in biophysical factors Uncertainties in the approach: Climate scenarios Climatic effects on sectors Future socio-economic conditions Unknown if adaptive capacity assets will be drawn in time of need Shortcomings: Highly dependent on climate scenarios (CC may alter in a different way than expected)  adaptation measures may become inappropriate Source: Tan et al. (2008)

Adaptive Capacity: Starting-Point Approach Adaptive capacity of the present’s system: Socio-economic factors + Biophysical factors Enhancing the present’s ability to respond to stressors and secure livelihood Advantages: Practical for coping with changes and uncertainties Promote sustainable development Facilitate cheaper adaptation strategies Target the poor and vulnerable groups more effectively Source: Tan et al. (2008)

Major Challenges R&D Challenges for Geoscience Method development Information availability Entry points for adaptation IMPLEMENTATION Scale of information and governance Balance between top-down and bottom-up approaches Balance between sector-based & macro-based approaches Linking adaptation to growth agendas Pro-poor adaptation Transforming livelihoods and coping mechanisms Climate justice and rights

Locations No of Flood Events Frequency ( ) Lebuhraya Persekutuan (Sg. Rasau), Jln. Subang Airport, Kg. Subang, Kg. Lanchong Jaya, Kg. Melayu Kebun Bunga, Tmn. Sri Kilat, Tmn. Maznah, Kg. Bukit Naga, Tmn. Rashna, Kg. Lombong, Kg. Baru Hicom, Kg. Baru Subang, Jln. Glenmarie, NKVE (Plaza Tol Shah Alam), NKVE (Batu Tiga), Shah Alam, Ladang Elmina, Kg. Sg. Pelong & Kg. Baru Sg. Buloh 1 – 4 Jarang (Rare) Kg. Lembah Bina, Kg. Padang Jawa, Sg. Rasau, Kg. Melayu Subang, Bt. Kemuning, Kg. Jln. Kebun & Kg. Paya Jaras Dalam 5 – 7 Sederhana kerap (Occasional) Kg. Merbau Sempak, Kg. Kubu Gajah, Kg. Paya Jaras Hilit & Kg. Paya Jaras Tengah 8 – 10 Kerap (Frequent) Kg. Kebun Bunga, Batu Tiga, Tmn. Sri Muda, Kg. Paya Jaras Hulu & Bandar Baru Sg. Buloh 11 – 15 Sangat kerap (Very Frequent) Source: Bachat, J Frequency of Floods and Flash Floods in Shah Alam, Selangor (1990 – 1998)

178 Kejadian (Events) 34 Kawasan (Localities) Distribution of Floods and Flash Floods in Shah Alam, Selangor (1990 – 1998) Source: Bachat, J. 2006

Areas Potentially Affected by Sea- Level Rise in Penang Island Source: Ng (2010)

Areas Potentially Affected by Sea Level Rise in Port Klang, Selangor 460 h < 0.5 m; 1500 h < 1.0 m Source: Rashidah, 2012

Areas potentially affected by sea level rise– 2,5 m (SEAREG: 1m SLR+ 1,5m storm surge) Affected area – 2,5 m (SLR+storm surge) Sewage treatment plant Landfill dumps * excluding water

Landslide Assessment NW Pulau Pinang Level of analysis: Basic Source: Ng (2010)

Geological Map Source: Ng (2010) Relict Landslides Inventory Map

Slope Gradient Map Source: Ng (2010) Lineament Density Map

Source: Ng (2010) Rainfall Map Landslide Susceptibility Map

Landuse Map Relict Landslde Source: Ng (2010) Vulnerability Map

Landslide Risk Map Source: Ng (2010)c Landslide Susceptibility Map for the Future?

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Geological Terrain Mapping in Malaysia A systematic method of landform or terrain mapping and evaluation for landuse planning and construction suitability determination. A systematic method of landform or terrain mapping and evaluation for landuse planning and construction suitability determination. Developed by Minerals and Geoscience Department of Malaysia. Modified from HK GCO. Developed by Minerals and Geoscience Department of Malaysia. Modified from HK GCO. Integrates data from remote sensing analysis and field mapping in the GIS. Integrates data from remote sensing analysis and field mapping in the GIS. Objectives: Objectives: Preparation of a terrain classification map Preparation of a terrain classification map Preparation of a construction suitability map Preparation of a construction suitability map Provide systematic input for development planning Provide systematic input for development planning Preparation of other thematic maps for use by engineers and town planners. Preparation of other thematic maps for use by engineers and town planners. The main product is a Construction Suitability Map, where an area is classified into 4 classes (Class I, Class II, Class III & Class IV). The main product is a Construction Suitability Map, where an area is classified into 4 classes (Class I, Class II, Class III & Class IV). Adopted by NRE as a guideline for highland & hill slope development. Adopted by NRE as a guideline for highland & hill slope development.

31 Construction Suitability Class CLASS ICLASS IICLASS IIICLASS IV Geotechnical Limitation LowModerateHighExtreme Hazard LevelLowModerateHighVery High Suitability for Development HighModerateLow Probably Unsuitable Engineering Costs for Development LowNormalHighVery High Intensity of Site Investigation Required Normal Intensive Very Intensive Type and Density of Development Class I & II – no restriction but must follow all relevant by-laws, guidelines & codes of local authorities Class I & II – no restriction but must follow all relevant by-laws, guidelines & codes of local authorities Class III – restricted development (20% in S’gor) Detached house, up to 3 storey, maximum 6 unit/acre Semi-detached house, up to 3 storey, maximum 8 unit/acre Link house, up to 3 storey, maximum 12 unit/acre Link commercial, plith – 100%, plot ratio – 50% Detached office & institution, plith – 50%, plot ratio 50% Class III – restricted development (20% in S’gor) Detached house, up to 3 storey, maximum 6 unit/acre Semi-detached house, up to 3 storey, maximum 8 unit/acre Link house, up to 3 storey, maximum 12 unit/acre Link commercial, plith – 100%, plot ratio – 50% Detached office & institution, plith – 50%, plot ratio 50% Class IV – development not allowed except for critical infrastructures Class IV – development not allowed except for critical infrastructures

CONCLUSIONS Climate change is unequivocal; Drivers of climate change is disputed; Adaptation should be balanced with mitigation; Starting point adaptation should be the first option for developing countries; Geoscience has much to contribute to introduce starting-point adaptation and strengthen DRR; R&D required for method development to produce geoscience-based adaptation tools The time to contribute is NOW!!!

TERIMA KASIH!