VAAL RIVER SYSTEM TARIFF: Water and Sanitation’s Long-term Water Requirement Scenarios Vaal River Tariff Presentation to Rand Water Sevices Forum Venue: RW Glenvista Seef Rademeyer – 12 October 2016 PRESENTATION TITLE Presented by: Name Surname Directorate Date

Integrated Vaal River System Existing Transfer Schemes Proposed Transfer Schemes Mokolo Catchment Transfers relevant to VRESS Lephalale Crocodile Catchment Vaal Catchment Komati-Olifants Upper Olifants Mainly Power Stations Lephalale Rand Water Sasol Midvaal Water Heyshope Transfer Scheme Sedibeng Water Vaal Gamagara Transfer Scheme Vaalharts Iirrigation Scheme Zaaihoek Transfer Scheme The Vaal River System is the most important bulk water supply system in the country, supplying water to 46% of the country’s economy and 33% of the population. This covers the whole of Gauteng, but also to important areas in Mpumalanga, North West, Free State, Northern Cape and soon to the important developments near Lephalale in Limpopo. The system receives water from KwaZulu-Natal and Lesotho (Orange River) and many other catchments. This is a very complex system consisting of many large dams, pumping stations, pipelines and tunnels transferring water over long distances. The transfers relevant to the Vaal River Eastern Supply System mostly for Eskom and Sasol is shown in red. Resources of the Vaal exceeded in the early 1970’s. Developed a complex system transferring water from …..(see map) The system covers the whole of Gauteng, but also the important areas in Mpumalanga (mines and industries (Sasol’s coal to liquid) and bulk of Eskom’s coal fired power stations ), North West and Free State Gold Fields (supplied by Midvaal Water and Sedibeng Water respectively), Northern Cape (Kimberley and the mines and towns from the Vaal Gamagara Transfer Scheme), large irrigation schemes of which Vaalharts is the biggest in the country. Also showing the in some detail the crocodile West & Marico Sypply Area and the important developments near Lephalale (Eskom and Sasol) in Limpopo, which might also have to be supported from the Vaal with transfers in future – depending on the rate of the growth in return flows from the area supplied from the Vaal. Tuhkela-Vaal Transfer Scheme LHWP#1 Vaal 2015/16 AOA SOF

Very sophisticated models were developed to model this system and complex network consisting of large dams, pumping stations, pipelines, canals and tunnels transferring water over long distances. Schematic diagram illustrates the complexity of the interlinked system. 3

INTEGRATED ORANGE VAAL SYSTEM Support Sub-systems (LHWP) Senqu Shared Resource Vaal Orange

WATER REQUIREMENTS

Linkages with Crocodile & Mokolo February 2011 Growth areas Urban Mining Mokolo Catchment Proposed Transfer Vaal Catchment Crocodile West Catchment Treated Urban Return Flows Transfer from Vaal River via. Rand Water System Recap of the study area Bordering catchments: Vaal in the south, Mokolo in the north east, Crocodile in the east, Mario in the west. Crocodile West River System Water Resources Rivers: Apies, Pienaars, Jukskei, Crocodule, Elands, Significant Reservoirs: Hartbeespoort, Roodekopjes, Bospoort, Vaalkop, Rietvlei, Roodeplaat, Klipvoor Growing urban water requirements as well as mining and related industries – also in the Lephalale Area on the Waterberg coalfields. Potable water transfer from the Vaal River System via. Rand Water supply system. Treated urban return flows. Continental divide 6

Lephalale Water Balance Lephalale water transfer requirements (July 2012) With 15 and 20% conveyance losses Alternative Scenario Base Scenario Critical period Water available in the Crocodile for transfer Transfer to Lephalale

Water in Crocodile after supplying Lephalale

Rand Water Supply Area Scenarios Scenario A & B Rand Water Projection (October 2014) Rand Water (2003) Scenario C WC/WDM & Tshwane Reuse Historical Water Use This figure was also shown last year but the last year’s actual water use was added Indicate that it is slightly higher than the highest (red) curve Indicate why we are working on this curve and explain the others 9

Water Requirement Scenarios (Net System Water Requirements) Scenario A: High Water Requirements Scenario B: High Water Requirements Unlawful Removed Scenario C: High Water Requirement Scenario Water Conservation and Demand Management Unlawful Removed Reuse (Tshwane)

WATER QUALITY

Implications of AMD Acid Mine Drainage Management Option AMD Discharge RUSTENBURG Vaal Barrage Excess flow Excess System Spills Vaal Dilution Bloemhof Dam Proposed Polihali Dam Katse Mohale Acid Mine Drainage Management Option 2012: Mines voids filling (no mine water discharge) 2014: AMD neutralisation, discharge and dilution 2021: AMD desalination and reuse

AMD: Benefits of desalination Excessive Spills & Wastage 99 % Implication of AMD discharge and dilution on Bloemhof Dam 100 % No desalination 99.5 % More efficient use of Bloemhof Dam when AMD is desalinated Desalination and reuse Desalinate AMD

COMPLEX ISSUES Dynamic area with huge growth in water requirements and we need to sustain water for social and economic activities Complex infrastructure system Efficient use of scarce resource important All users contribute to the effluent and complex water quality issues We need to ensure there will be enough water for this important area Can read from slide or can simply just summarise by saying that we are dealing with complex issues in the IVRS and because of the importance of the area we need to ensure that there will be enough water for future growth and development 14

RECONCILIATION STRATEGY

Background to the Integrated Vaal River studies Various studies were done over many years It culminated in the Vaal River Reconciliation Strategy Study Stakeholders participation in Steering Committee is continuing Strategy is presented at various stakeholder workshops To ensure that there will be enough water available in future, DWA is monitoring development in this area to ensure that we have mitigation measures in place in good time. Various studies were thus done over many years that enabled DWA to be proactive. These studies culminated ….. 16 16 16

FUTURE OPTIONS TO RECONCILE GLeWaP - May 2010 FUTURE OPTIONS TO RECONCILE Focus of Vaal Reconciliation Strategy Study: Options for augmentation limited Need to balance supply and demand Develop strategies (scenario based) to meet growing water requirements Find best reconciliation solution i.t.o. Least cost (to end user) Long term vision Maximize future flexibility Involvement of stakeholders Although the options for augmentation are getting limited, we are still tasked to balance the supply and demand. We therefore developed strategies to meet this growing demand. The solutions must have: The least cost to the end user A long term vision Maximum future flexibility 17

Strategic Interventions Ensuring that sufficient water is available to supply the future requirements of the Vaal River System requires a multi pillar strategy: Eradication of unlawful water use by 2015 Continue with the Implementation of WC/WDM (Project 15%) – achieve target savings by 2017 Implement Phase 2 of LHWP by 2024 Mine water effluent treatment and use by 2020/21 Tshwane Water Augmentation Project (Re-use) Plan yield replacement scheme in Orange Manage uncertainties: Vaal, Crocodile and Olifants Implementation of Integrated Water Quality Management Plan Dates require review 18

Reconciliation Perspective 19

Reconciliation Perspectives Water Conservation and Water Demand Management, eradication of unlawful use, desalination and re-use of mine water as well as Tshwane re-use project are all essential to maintain balance until LHWP Phase 2 can be implemented 20

Top Management Support Approval of long-term AMD management option Exert pressure on municipalities to achieve water saving targets Expedite decisions relating LWHP Phase 2 implementation Support the re-use initiative by Tshwane Approve resources for infrastructure maintenance activities Promote and support development and operational planning We therefore have all the responsibility to : Support the approval of the long-term AMD management option Exert pressure on municipalities to achieve water saving targets Expedite decisions relating LWHP Phase 2 implementation Support the re-use initiative by Tshwane Approve resources for infrastructure maintenance activities Promote and support development and operational planning Vaal 2015/16 AOA SOF

Total System Storage Trajectory Mohale Dam included Mohale Dam included May storages for past 15 years. May 2006 highest and May 2011 2nd highest on record. May 2012 similar to May 2007. May 2013 lowest since 2005. MAY 2015 STILL TO BE ADDED

Total IVRS (Major Dams) 2 May 2016: 61.3% Comments: (Red dots indicate storage levels below which restrictions are required) 1 Storage within the total system was at 87.3% on 11 Aug 2014 2 On 8 September 2014 actual storage was at 85.4% and between the projected median and worst sequence storage trajectory. 3 On 6 October 2014 actual storage was at 82.5% and just above the projected worst sequence storage trajectory. 4 On 10 November 2014 actual storage was at 80.6% and at the projected 75% exceedance probability level. 5 On 12 Jan 2015 actual storage was at 87.2% and just above the projected median (50%) exceedance probability level. 6 On 9 Feb 2015 actual storage was at 86.6% and just below the projected median exceedance probability level. 7 On 9 March 2015 actual storage was at 86.6% and at the projected Vaal 2015/16 AOA SOF

VAAL RIVER TARIFF CALCULATION (2016) INFORMATION SUPPLIED TO TCTA 24

Rand Water Volume presented on graph: 1. Gross RW abstraction 1700 million m3 2. Less :ESKOM+ ISCOR+ Sasol Sasolburg+ Small industrial and mining users = 73 million m3 3. Net RW abstraction = 1627 million m3 Projection A Projection B "p:\Projects\110611 Dev Op Rule Integ Vaal River System\03 PRJ Del\Task 2 - IVRS and ORS\01 - IVRS\07 - 15_16 AOA\01_Water Demands\Comparisons-projections\Fig_C1_RW Hist Comp 2014_v1.xlsx" Planning year (May - April)

Scenario Descriptions (1/3) GLeWaP - May 2010 Scenario Descriptions (1/3) Scenario I (Low) RW area: High demand scenario (in view of 2015/16 actual use) WC/WDM implemented with high level of success Assume levels of drought restrictions to be implemented over the medium term Eskom tariff scenario April 2016 All other users as determined for the 2016/17 Annual Operating Analysis Read from slide 26

Scenario Descriptions (2/3) GLeWaP - May 2010 Scenario Descriptions (2/3) Scenario I (Medium) RW area: High demand scenario (in view of 2015/16 actual use) WC/WDM implemented with low level of success Eskom tariff scenario April 2016 All other users as determined for the 2016/17 Annual Operating Analysis Read from slide 27

Scenario Descriptions (3/3) GLeWaP - May 2010 Scenario Descriptions (3/3) Scenario I (High) RW area: High demand scenario (in view of 2015/16 actual use) No WC/WDM implemented Eskom tariff scenario April 2016 All other users as determined for the 2016/17 Annual Operating Analysis Read from slide 28

Water Requirement Scenarios GLeWaP - May 2010 Water Requirement Scenarios As you will recall, the yield of the system is in the order of 3 000 million m3/a which means that the actual use is for all practical purposes already higher than this. When we start to treat the AMD over the short-term (pH), we need to release water from Vaal Dam for dilution and the effect of this increase in water demand is evident in the earlier years of the demand projections (2017-2019). There is a drop in demand when the long-term desalination of AMD starts (2019-2021). Thereafter, the growth is driven by the RW growth and Eskom demands (2021-2030). From 2030 to 2035 Eskom is going to decommission their plants and the decrease in their growth and the increase in RW’s groth will cancel each other out. Thereafter the demand will keep on growing according to the RW projections. 29

System Balance: Tariff Scenario I GLeWaP - May 2010 System Balance: Tariff Scenario I This is the Low scenario (green requirement line) You will notice that the date for augmentation from LHWP #2 is the same for all three (this and next two) scenarios, i.e. 2022, which is the earliest date that scheme can start supplying water. With this scenario, there is no need for another augmentation scheme over the planning period 30

System Balance: Tariff Scenario II GLeWaP - May 2010 System Balance: Tariff Scenario II This is the medium scenario (red water requirement line). As indicated in previous slide, the date for augmentation from LHWP #2 is the same for all three scenarios, i.e. 2022, which is the earliest date that scheme can start supplying water. The date for the next augmentation scheme, i.e. Thukela (TWP), on the other hand, has to deliver where the yield line of the LHWP #2 meets the medium scenario (red water requirement line). 31

System Balance: Tariff Scenario III GLeWaP - May 2010 System Balance: Tariff Scenario III This is the High scenario (blue requirement line). As indicated in previous slide, the date for augmentation from LHWP #2 is the same for all three scenarios, i.e. 2022, which is the earliest date that scheme can start supplying water. The date for the next augmentation scheme, i.e. Thukela (TWP), on the other hand, has to deliver where the yield line of the LHWP #2 meets the medium scenario (blue water requirement line). 32

Thank you! Any Questions?