Nicholas Pleace The Costs of Homelessness

Overview Background Why are costs important? Estimating costs

Background European Observatory on Homelessness 2013 A reaction to policy environment Austerity, cutbacks US, Australia, Financial arguments 13 European countries (UK) limited data

Background At least possible to estimate costs Highly dependent on available data –On homeless pathways –On different aspects of homeless population –And on patterns and costs of service use

Reasons for estimating costs US “Million Dollar Murray” Humanitarian and financial case Prevention, Housing First, CTI Stop homelessness and be cost effective

Basis for the estimation Ideally: merge data Homelessness and service pathways NHS Scotland and HL1 data - Neil Hamlet Not (quite) feasible in 2015

Basis for the estimation Without merging data Or conducting a survey (risk) Use existing research Ascribe real costs to real pathways Ethical concerns

Basis for the estimation Pathways through homelessness –Evaluations of Housing First services –Evaluation of Crisis Skylight programme NHS and related costs - PSSRU Local authority admin costs – Shelter Homelessness service costs – LAs Temporary accommodation costs – LAs

Basis for the estimation Proxy pathways Proxy costs

Vignettes Young woman, refused prevention Man in 30s, starts sleeping rough A man with learning difficulty, at risk Woman in her 20s, escaping violence Difference in costs: prevention versus allowing homelessness for 12 months

Vignette 1 Young woman –S–Scenario 1: Homeless prevented –S–Scenario 2: Refused assistance £1,558 for scenario 1 £11,733 for scenario 2 Sofa surfs, uses hostel, starts using drugs under 2, does not under 1

Vignette 2 Man in 30s at risk of sleeping rough –S–Scenario 1: Homeless prevented –S–Scenario 2: Refused assistance £1,426 for scenario 1 £20,128 for scenario 2 Uses A&E, arrested for anti-social behaviour, high intensity supported housing under 2, does not under 1

Vignette 3 Man with learning difficulties –S–Scenario 1: Homeless prevented –S–Scenario 2: Refused assistance £4,726 for scenario 1 £12,778 for scenario 2 Receives preventative support under 1, 12 month stay in hostel under 2

Vignette 4 Woman escaping violence –S–Scenario 1: Homeless prevented –S–Scenario 2: Refused assistance £1,554 for scenario 1 £4,668 for scenario 2 Homelessness not resolved under 2, only makes limited use of services, but still more expensive, high human cost

Results This is an estimate Closely reflects actual experiences And actual costs Cannot be seen as more than illustrative But it looks worrying Relatively few people could mean very high costs

Results Actual patterns unknown for now Could be –t–typically more expensive –t–typically cheaper –o–or highly variable Look like US/Australian findings Will soon know more Prevention can fail The real cost of homelessness is human

The realisable costs challenge Can deliver immediate, cashable savings by reducing homelessness Particularly for local authorities –Covered later on in this presentation But savings may be hard to realise –A&E departments and the scale of homelessness traffic –Police and Criminal Justice systems –Benefits system

Current Research Getting costs from 100 single homeless people York, Birmingham, London Actual patterns of service use Which we can ascribe costs to Reporting September Have also looked at the early impact of changes to Welsh Legislation

The Welsh Legislative Changes Local authorities must take steps to prevent or alleviate homelessness Anyone who presents No local connection, no priority need 56 days Not a duty to accommodate Statutory system remains in place Big leap in Wales, no historical shift to prevention

Local authority temporary accommodation use Wales [1] [1] Includes private sector accommodation, public sector accommodation, hostels and women’s refuges.

Local authority temporary accommodation costs Wales [1] [1] Includes private sector accommodation, public sector accommodation, hostels and women’s refuges. Temporary accommodati on type 2013(Jul-Sep)2015(Jul-Sep) Cost impact ( ) SingleFamilyTotalSingleFamilyTotal Bed and breakfast £653,660£85,365£739,025£397,880£85,365£483,245-£255,780 Non B&B accommodati on £1,903,500 £1,518,77 5 £3,422,27 5 £1,692,00 0 £1,288,07 5 £2,980,075-£442,200 Total quarterly cost £2,557,160 £1,604,14 0 £4,161,30 0 £2,089,88 0 £1,373,44 0 £3,463,320-£697,980

London Provisional Estimates of Annual Savings from Reducing temporary accommodation use in London (based on 20 Boroughs) Based on Rugg, J (2016), survey of 20 London boroughs, 8 inner, 12 outer.

Local Authority administrative costs Wales Homelessness decisions Oct-Dec 2013 Unit cost (estimated average) Total cost (estimate) Oct-Dec 2015 Total cost (estimate) Difference Eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need 1,220£2,413£2,943,860405£977,265-£1,966,595 Eligible, homeless and in a priority need but intentionally so 160£383£61,20085£32,513-£28,688 Eligible, homeless but not in priority need 800£383£306,000405£154,913-£151,088 Eligible, but not homeless or threatened with homelessness 685£191£131,0061,585£303,131£172,125 Action to prevent and/or relieve 2,796£993£2,776,4284,135£4,106,055£1,329,627 Ineligible45£383£17,21360£22,950£5,738 Totals5,705£6,235,7076,675£5,596,826-£638,881

Thanks for listening Nicholas Pleace Centre for Housing Policy – European Observatory on Homelessness – Women’s Homelessness in Europe Network –