Opportunities to Leapfrog High-GWP HFCs when Phasing out HCFCs

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Presentation transcript:

Opportunities to Leapfrog High-GWP HFCs when Phasing out HCFCs Alexander Hillbrand, NRDC 10/10/2016

Getting Underway Looking forward to the HFC phasedown, it makes sense to start the phasedown in sectors that are transitioning out of HCFCs through the HPMP process. ‘Leapfrogging’ alongside the HPMPs will be less expensive for companies redesigning equipment, less expensive for the MLF, and will achieve environmental benefits more quickly. This process is already underway worldwide, primarily in foams.

Available, Lower-GWP Alternatives to HCFCs Ready for Inclusion in HPMPs Sectors NIK & Lower-GWP Alternatives Foams - Polyurethane hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1233zd - Extruded polystyrene CO2, HFO-1234ze Stationary AC - Room AC hydrocarbons, HFC-32 - Mini-splits - Chillers ammonia, HFO-1233zd, HFO-1234ze Refrigeration - Supermarkets & storage ammonia, CO2, R-407A/C/F, R-448A, R-449A - Comm Ref/Freezers hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf - Transport R-452A

Example of Progress: India Foams Nearly all polyurethane foam applications have transitioned to hydrocarbon and other NIK solutions, with a very limited portion moving into HFC-245fa. The same is expected in Stage II HPMP that will address extruded polystyrene and other additional foams Room AC: Estimates place the current market at 2% hydrocarbon, 17% HFC-32, 11% R-410A, and the remaining 70% in R-22. Commercial Refrigeration Market is still largely in R-22, but officials suggest that R-404A, GWP 4000, will not be widely used as it has been by A2 parties. Alternatives include R-407C and others.

Example of Progress: India India’s expected HFC leapfrogging during the HPMP process will lead to a 48% decrease in projected GWP-weighted HFC consumption in 2050. Forecasted use is 91 MMT CO2-eq in 2030.

Conclusions Market and business forces, ambitious environmental policies, and MLF ExCom decisions are starting to help A5 parties phase in low-GWP alternatives in place of HCFCs through the HPMP process An HFC amendment will make leapfrogging much more technically feasible and cost effective, suggesting that HFC phasedown activities should initially focus on those sectors that are involved in HPMP transitions. Buys MAC more time before reductions must be made.