The Challenge for Argo Argo Science Workshop Tokyo, Japan November, 2003 Stan Wilson, NOAA

The Way It Was In the U.S. during 1998, we were able to give high-level political visibility to the plan proposed by the International Argo Science Team The Argo plan had a clear, consistent message and rationale that everyone could use Because that plan already reflected international scientific consensus among its participants, we were able to facilitate the corresponding development of international political consensus And political consensus helped initiate Argo funding

The Challenge for Argo Sustain the funding long enough to complete the global array and demonstrate its value Dean Roemmich & John Gould

The Challenge for Argo With the exception of the U.S., Argo funding comes via proposals submitted to agencies funding traditional research Sustained funding for systematic ocean observations needs to come from mission agencies We need to make the case in order to effect that transition

The Challenge for Argo Sustain the funding long enough to complete the global array and demonstrate its value

complete the global array Near Term Funding at this time does not appear to be a limiting factor Establishing an assembly line capability for float production, deployment, and operation Further development of the data management system, especially the delayed-mode quality control Steve Riser: The path to an operational capability is likely to be different for Argo than predecessor programs due to the complexity of the instrument and the need for… continuing involvement by the research community…

complete the global array Longer Term Argo is not a traditional research program, nor is it an operational program While Argo needs a continuing research involvement, it also needs a discipline not traditionally found in research institutions We need to ensure that Argo continues when its PIs retire or move on

The Challenge for Argo Sustain the funding long enough to complete the global array and demonstrate its value

demonstrate its value As Argo data are coming available, we have heard about the UK Met Office, ECMWF, JMA, etc assessing their impact on operational analyses and forecasts – we need to encourage them and track their results But there is also value in documenting long-term climate change which will be less straight forward to demonstrate – we need to convince policy- makers of the associated potential value

demonstrate its value Uwe Send: While Argo is the single most important element of the in-situ ocean observing system…other elements are required for addressing scientific and operational needs We need to address the use of observations from complementary systems to answer questions of importance to society And since we want the public to pay for Argo, we need to be able to convince policy-makers responsible for dispersing public funds of the importance of our answering those questions

How might we do that? We could identify a set of easily understandable, policy-relevant, science-based questions, each of which can be used to identify those other observing techniques needed to complement Argo and enhance its value If we could agree on a set of questions, they could serve as a basis for developing a clear, consistent message and rationale that everyone could use

What sort of questions? What is the rate of sea level rise, what is the projected rate in the future, what sustained systematic observations are needed to reduce the uncertainties, and what actions are required for implementation? What is the rate of ocean warming… What is the rate of the ocean accumulating carbon… And others…

A Sea Level Example Needed ocean observations & actions required for each Argo –Near-term – Complete the global array –Longer-term – Continuing support for Argo Satellite altimetry –Near-term – Funding for NOAA to participate in Jason-2 –Longer-term – Continuing series of Jason-class altimeters GLOSS Tide Gauges –Near-term – TBD upgrade from the present ~64 near real time, hourly reporting tide gauges; are geodetically located –Longer-term – Similarly upgrade the full ~300-station GLOSS Core Network

A Sea Level Example A special note on data access Argo, TOPEX/Poseidon & Jason-1 –All satellite altimeter and Argo data are available in near-real time GLOSS –Only 64 GLOSS tide gauges report hourly data in near real time –Only 2/3rds of the 300 GLOSS Core Network report monthly- means and that is done several years after the fact We need to address the financial, capacity building and political issues associated with sharing tide gauge data

The Challenge for Argo Sustain the funding long enough to complete the global array and demonstrate its value

Sustain the funding Science and technology are giving us a remarkable capability to observe and, with the resulting observations, understand the Earth as a system. This understanding in turn provides us with a means to enhance our predictive capabilities to meet a variety of pressing societal needs. All of this begins with observations, and their importance is now being recognized by world leaders. VADM Lautenbacher, NOAA Administrator at the IOC Assembly in June

Sustain the funding The G-8 last June agreed to develop close co- ordination of our respective global observation strategies The Earth Observation Summit last July agreed to develop a 10-year conceptual plan for a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observing system In December COP-9 will review the 2nd GCOS Adequacy Report and call for development of an implementation plan, taking into account initiatives such as the Earth Observation Summit

Earth Observation Elements Ocean Health Land Ecosystems Disasters Atmosphere Climate Group on Earth bservations Group on Earth bservations

The Earth Observation Summit Washington DC, July 31, 2003 The Summit represented a high level governmental/political commitment to support: Comprehensive, coordinated, sustained Earth observation system Exchange of observations in a full and open manner with minimum time delay and minimum cost Preparation of a 10-year conceptual Implementation Plan, building on existing systems and initiatives Framework Plan for Tokyo ministerial, April or May year Plan for European ministerial in late 2004 Established ad hoc intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO) with 4 Co-Chairs: 1)U.S. – NOAA Administrator 2) EC – Directorate General for Research 3) Japan – Deputy Minister, MEXT 4)South Africa – Director-General, Dept. of S&T Group on Earth bservations Group on Earth bservations

ASONDJFMAMJJASONDJ Draft Calendar Earth Observation Summit-1 July 31 United States Initial GEO Meeting—August 1-2 = Document Milestones = GEO Meetings planned = GEO Meetings notional = Significant Events Complete Framework Document Complete10-Year Implementation Plan Earth Observation Summit-2 Japan Earth Observation Summit-3 Europe GEO-2 Italy November G - 8 Group on Earth bservations Group on Earth bservations COP-9

What next? US National Science & Technology Council –Committee on Environment & Natural Resources Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations –Task Group will begin the process of developing a prioritization framework for the U.S. 10-year Earth Observing Plan – teleconference roundtable on Nov 24/25 Ask about the GEO process in your country –Who is involved? –What do they need? –Ask how you can help

What next? We need a clear, consistent message and rationale concerning the ocean components of the overall Earth observations implementation plan With scientific consensus for those components, we will be better positioned to take advantage of the developing international political consensus And political consensus can facilitate funding over the long term

Member Governments Argentina Australia Belize Brazil Canada China Denmark Egypt European Commission France Gabon Germany India Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Mexico Morocco Netherlands New Zealand Norway Republic of Congo Republic of Korea Russian Federation South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Thailand Ukraine United Kingdom United States Group on Earth bservations Group on Earth bservations